Thread by @DrEricDing

PAY ATTENTION—the #DeltaVariant is the biggest worry & becoming more dominant worldwide. Why?

📍More contagious

📍More severe (⬆️hospitalization risk)

📍Lower vaccine efficacy/neutralization—1 dose just not enough.

Video 📺 part 1 of 2 #COVID19

HT @VickiGSP @IndependentSage

2) It’s critical to recognize that the #DeltaVariant is rising underneath the decrease of the #AlphaVariant #B117. Many have been complacent about this. But Delta is doubling every week now in 🇬🇧!

3) India 🇮🇳 doctors have been sharing concerns that #DeltaVariant is more severe / affecting more kids. Singapore 🇸🇬 MOH is also warning it is affecting children a lot.

4) Yet UK 🇬🇧 govt made a critical mistake of no masks in schools and no improvements in ventilation or air quality.

5) So what do we now do? Here is what this means for infection control of the new #DeltaVariant worldwide. Do not get complacent.

Video part 2. Thx again to @VickiGSP.

(@IndependentSage is one of the leading 🇬🇧 COVID expert groups—and often in agreement with @CovidActionGrp)

6) Nobody wants another lockdown damnit!! So we must act fast to avoid it… here are 6 ways how:

(Video part 3 of 3, by @VickiGSP of @IndependentSage)

7) Here are the warnings from UK experts. The details of how #DeltaVariant has 2.5x higher hospitalizations risk than #AlphaVariant #B117 is detailed in the below thread 🧵

8) There is now RED (with high confidence) that 📌 “transmissibility appears greater” and also 📌“reduced vaccine effectiveness” of the #DeltaVariant.

This is no longer speculation. This warning was issued by the CDC equivalent of England - @PHE_uk.

9) While the vaccines do mostly work on the #DeltaVariant, the main problem is that 1 dose simply just isn’t enough anymore. Here is the latest LANCET published study. It walks thru the evidence how 1 dose is so weak. 1 dose strategy countries (cough Canada 🇨🇦, cough) must adapt.

10) Because #DeltaVariant starts at a much lower neutralization, its efficacy drop when adding co-morbidities could be even more steep. See below how these two compound together…

11) for those who still don’t believe it… “show me the hospitalizations” you ask? Well here it is… exponential rise in hospitalizations in the UK 🇬🇧 now because of #DeltaVariant despite >70% one dose, and 42% full vaccinated… hospital numbers don’t lie.

12) So…. Is it surging in the US? Ummm, yeah. Really damn fast too. It’s the fastest growing variant currently, and #DeltaVariant projected by models to become dominant in the US by July… just like in UK’s footsteps. Hence let’s watch carefully what happened in UK and India.

13) In case the above graphic wasn’t clear… #DeltaVariant #B16172 is colored with magenta in the modeling of how dominant it will soon become in across many states.

14) There is also some concerns about reinfections… not definitive yet, but usually reinfection risks correlate with vaccine efficacy/neutralization changes

15) As Dr Fauci warned recently: “The problem you get into … is that a single dose only provides about ~30% effectiveness [against #DeltaVariant]—so that is really an issue you gotta be careful”, as Fauci tells @nehakhanna_07 on @IndiaAheadNews.

16) Here is the awesome full length 5 min video on the #DeltaVariant (threaded in 3 parts above) on YouTube by @VickiGSP of @IndependentSage. Hats 🎩 off to Vicki!

17) In case you need more data on the #DeltaVariant and kids in UK… this is the contact tracing of positive cases.

18) And here is the heatmap of the pediatric age groups seeing fast growth of #DeltaVariant

19) And here is the pediatric warning on the #DeltaVariant from Singapore 🇸🇬 health ministry

20) here is the warning from India 🇮🇳 doctors on pediatric cases of #DeltaVariant during its recent surge driven by #B16172.

21) Bad - #DeltaVariant is now up to 91% of all #SARSCoV2 samples in the UK 🇬🇧. Total domination of the #B16172 is in sight. It replaced the previously fast #alphavariant but which is not fast enough anymore compared to Delta.

22) politicians often act too late. Scientists often too shy to shout from the roof tops early…. What you get is inaction by politicians and vocalization by scientists until too late.

So I’m here trying to raise the alarm— because there is a critical need for early action.

23) Cases are rising, especially in the unvaccinated. This is why we need urgently 2 doses + mitigation.

24) is it a coincidence that UK 🇬🇧 govt always falls behind in reacting to #COVID19 surges? No. It’s bad leadership.

@GabrielScally is very right.

25) look at this sharp takeover of #DeltaVariant in becoming dominant in the UK 🇬🇧 — we are rather certain it will happen in many other countries too. We cannot ignore this.

26) #DeltaVariant just caused 77 additional outbreaks in educational settings in England in just the last week according to @dgurdasani1. Wow.

27) I keep staring at this table… 23 deaths among unvaccinated, while 12 deaths in fully vaccinated. Approximately ~40% of UK is 2-dose vaccinated (lower earlier)… but that is still a quite a vaccine breakthrough number… 12 vs 23. Have to keep eyes peeled on #DeltaVariant

28) I’m not the only one worried about these weird numbers with breakthrough cases with the #DeltaVariant. 30% among fully 2-dose vaccinated is a lot… granted that elderly are more likely fully vaccinated but then that points to waning immunity in elderly.

29) Waning immunity in the elderly is indeed one of the other suspected reasons and concern with the #DeltaVariant— see video…

30) welp—The #DeltaVariant is soon going to take over Europe says WHO Europe chief, who just urgently issued a new warning. Delta is surging in the US as well now.

31) serious—Outbreak even w/ 2 dose of mRNA vaccines—🇨🇦 hospital—16 patients & 6 healthcare staff #DeltaVariant positive. 6/16 patients & 5/6 HCWs had received 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine; 7 patients & 1 healthcare worker had 1 dose. 1 patient now in ICU.
cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…

32) this #DeltaVariant emerging is why we need to still mask even if vaccinated. And there is suggested by top vaccinologist @PeterHotez that a 3rd shot booster is maybe even needed because of delta.