Thread by @MsAmyMacPherson

1/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

I see many of you were excited by the polls today, so here's a few things you #NeedToKnow about polls

First, all pollsters exhibit bias & it's measured enough to constitute a graph. Here's one from the 2015 election to give you some example:

2/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

Watching polls throughout an election is a fool's game. It may provide insight at a given moment but it isn't until the final stretch that it may be indicative. Much can happen & a #LeadersDebate can change everything (click photo to see tail end)

3/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

Next, the #338PollAggregator contains every bias from every pollster, as demonstrated in the photo from (1/5) in this thread. With that said, they currently list an exact tie between Libs & Cons, with NDP ranking lower than the poll released today

4/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

According to bias, Ipsos was closest to centre during the 2015 election as demonstrated in post (1/5) & yet the line graph in (2/5) had a disparate ending

Currently Ipsos has the #LPC ahead of #CPC & it seems likely the #NDP is stat is inflated

5/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

In the end, all that matters is seat count & *concentrated votes* in specific ridings, not the average of countrywide polls that #CDNmedia likes to trumpet all election long

Currently it's:

#LPC 141 (+/-) 43
#CPC 133 (+/-) 36
#NDP 36 (+/-) 16