Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Polling

Most recents (7)

I've been thinking a lot about the occupation/protests in Ottawa and have been inspired by work being done by colleagues and others to understand the dynamics of public opinion and the impact on political behaviour.

#FreedomConvoy2022 #cdnpoli #society #mrx #polling #canada
And I think our political future will depend upon having a really good understanding of the opinion landscape.

This is especially true for those who lead orgs in business, media, and government. As I'll show you, you don't see the world in the same way as everyone else.
In preparing for a briefing for a client on tax fairness, affordability, and public policy in Canada, I went back to a survey we did for @PIPSC_IPFPC and @broadbent in July 2021.

A lot of the same concerns I see today in polling existed then...
Read 30 tweets
1/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

I see many of you were excited by the polls today, so here's a few things you #NeedToKnow about polls

First, all pollsters exhibit bias & it's measured enough to constitute a graph. Here's one from the 2015 election to give you some example:
2/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

Watching polls throughout an election is a fool's game. It may provide insight at a given moment but it isn't until the final stretch that it may be indicative. Much can happen & a #LeadersDebate can change everything (click photo to see tail end)
3/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

Next, the #338PollAggregator contains every bias from every pollster, as demonstrated in the photo from (1/5) in this thread. With that said, they currently list an exact tie between Libs & Cons, with NDP ranking lower than the poll released today
Read 5 tweets
Why are polls are so unreliable???

Is it bias? Conspiracy? Poor methods?

Well, it's complicated. But I'll try to explain.

(1/17)
#Polling has drastically evolved. The dawn of modern election Polling began in 1936 after #Gallup successfully predicting Roosevelt would win. The polling of that era consisted of in-person interviews conducted by a professional interviewer to minimize nonresponse bias. (2/17)
Each interviewer was given a highly detailed set of sampling quotas to meet. The quota sampling was nothing more than a systematic effort to force the poll sample to fit a national profile. (3/17)
Read 18 tweets
1/ I was wondering when looking at polling recently? how stable are the polls compared to other cycles, and how does that change (10 poll grouping) looks now versus then

very interesting results from my Election Matrix

20: 1.3% Veration
16: 2.6
12: 1.5
08: 2.2
04: 2.2
2/ What does that mean? basically means in that cycle, the average change between the 10 poll groupings averages is that percentage

for example, in 2016, one group of 10 polls comes out, and the next 10 are around a 2.6% deviation off of the last group
3/ Meaning the higher the number, the less stable the polls differences are. The lower, trends are slower in that cycle

2020 so far is the best
2016 has the worse (from modern RCP data)

This basically means, it takes twice the amount of polls in 2020 to show the same movement
Read 4 tweets
July Fox News #poll: “#Biden is preferred over Trump among extremely motivated voters (+8 points), those extremely likely to vote (+9) and those who feel it is extremely important their candidate wins (+13)." foxnews.com/opinion/trump-…
.@FoxNews polls have "found that a larger share of voters strongly disapprove of President Trump than strongly approve in every single poll we have taken since inauguration day. This strong disapproval is driven by Democrats." #polls #polling
In most recent quarter, #Biden raked in $16 million more than Trump & added 2.6 million donors. 97% of Biden's $$ is from grassroots donors.

#Dem Senate candidates outraised GOP incumbents in Alaska, AZ, CO, GA, IO, KY, #Maine, Mont, NC, SC. #voteblue
Read 5 tweets
Manafort gave 75 PAGES of #polling data to a #Russian🇷🇺intelligence agent (Kilimnik) with the GRU👉hacked @TheDemocrats.

Manafort gave #Russia DETAILED "cross-tabs" (not just top-line results) that could be used to MICROTARGET voters on social media.🤬

thedailybeast.com/paul-manafort-…
I ran for Congress, and my husband served for 6 years in Congress. Campaigns typically only share such DETAILED #polling data to entities helping the campaign communicate with voters (e.g., field, mailings, TV/radio/social media ads, etc).🤨

#TrumpRussia
Team🇺🇸Mueller said the Manafort/Kilimnik meeting goes to the "heart" of the #TrumpRussia🇷🇺probe👉there is NO legitimate explanation for why Manafort would share such DETAILED #polling data with THE RUSSIANS.

Total "#collusion," also known legally as #conspiracy against the US.🤬
Read 3 tweets
Let’s talk about #lectures in HigherEducation
.@LangOnCourse alerts us to: When should we lecture in class? Excellent examples and analysis of the (positive) role of the lecture from @dgooblar chronicle.com/article/Is-It-#teaching #learning #lecture
.@mariosbham comments on "#Lectures: a much-maligned format which can be truly inspirational" #HigherEducation edudevelopmentbham.wordpress.com/2018/10/26/lec…
Read 48 tweets

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