Thread by @Ex_Trac

1. A quick thread on official #Taliban comms.

When the #Taliban took control of #Kabul, it also took control of #Afghanistan’s decades-old state media apparatus (the red line).

Simultaneously, it abandoned its own decades-old “Voice of Jihad” network (the yellow line).

2. This graph shows output from “Voice of Jihad” over the last five years. Note how it peaked in the summer months before collapsing, and staying collapsed, in August.

That was the point at which the #Taliban’s “Voice of Jihad” finally went silent.

3. This graph, on the other hand, shows output from #Afghanistan’s state media network, the Bakhtar News Agency. Note the pause in mid-August followed by a new, different pattern of activity.

That was the point at which the #Taliban took over.

4. Now, the #Taliban publishes around 200-250 new media products a week via the Bakhtar News Agency and #Afghanistan’s other state channels, like RFA.

5. These materials are profoundly different from official #Taliban comms in bygone years.

This graph shows military-focused content (blue) vs. governance-focused content (grey).

In other words, it shows that with the capture of #Kabul, the #Taliban’s brand transformed.

6. Enter #ISKP, which has been doing all it can to undermine the #Taliban’s new rule of late.

Interestingly, notwithstanding the 50+ attacks #ISKP’s deployed and the 1000s of #ISKP "suspects" the #Taliban’s rounded up, it has been all but ignored in #Taliban comms to date.

7. The absence of #ISKP-related comms in #Taliban output shouldn't be taken to suggest the #Taliban isn’t worried.

Rather, it's because the #Taliban is suppressing news of its ops—and the broader message they send about its ability to secure #Afghanistan.
public-assets.extrac.io/reports/ExTrac…

8. We’re monitoring this situation closely. For more information on our #Taliban comms tracking capability, visit extrac.io.