Thread by @InspoCrypto

🚨🚨 Update: Our hourly whales ratio chart (1) is showing the first time since 12-30-2021 a little dump indicating less incoming whales tokens. Interesting because at the same time we are detecting more incoming tokens as the total netflow (2) is showing bigger

#BTC #ETH #XRP

inflows. When we've a low whales ratio but a green netflow that means retailers are capitulating and selling their #BTC in fear. However, we are not done yet.

Since 01-01-2020 the 30d average whales ratio is falling indicating less whales related inflows. At least not constant

inflows from whales detected. Stablecoin reserves on exchanges has stabilized since 01-04-2022 while the stablecoin supply keeps rising indicating a rising demand. The data keeps looking bearish, but better than in december atm.

In the top chart we can see the total netflow 30d

average. It shows very clear the dump preparation. Since EoY they were preparing that dump. If we check the netflow development of our main exchanges related to rising reserves, we can detect bigger inflows related to #Binance, #Bitfinex and #Okex today. #Gemini showing more

outflows.

#Gemini negative netflow matches to its reserve. Since yesterday it has declined by 7,000 #BTC. Interesting here is the correlation between its reserves and #BTC price action as tweeted yesterday.

#Okex has received another 750 #BTC since yesterday. While #Bitfinex

has rised its reserves by 2,750 #BTC. Our main dump actor #Binance has received almost 3,200 #BTC within 24 hours.

All exchanges combined show again falling reserves. In the last 24h it has declined by almost 2,750 #BTC

Also interesting if we spend a view to the in- and outflow charts. We are getting more inflows in sequences. In Ocotber/November we had more inflows than outflows indicating they have started to distribute the way up heading the new ATH and as we know more inflows are following.

Option traders showing a growthing bearish sentiment for January based on volume for all expiries. For the expiry 07Jan and 14Jan we have more puts traded in the last 24h expecting a lower price ranges, but also for the 28Jan they have started to buy more puts, even if calls are

still leading. The last big trade related to our 07Jan expiry is Puts at a price of $42k indicating an expected price below $42k. At the moment the data for the 28Jan expiry is not useful yet. We have here Calls at $52k ,$50k (the top trade since yesterday) and $48k, but also

Puts at $42k, $40k and $38k. So, atm they expect a trade range between 30s and 50s imo. But us said, atm not really useful. Buy/Sell Puts activity detected at $35k - $42k and Buy/Sell Calls activity at $50k and $60k. Our max pain didn't change since yesterday and it maintains at

$52k. However, based on OI we can see more option traders trading Calls for expiry 07Jan and 28Jan even if the volume for Puts is rising. To make clear, option traders expecting more dump in the coming 1-2 weeks before we can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Future trading looks weak and is almost announcing more dumps. Our leverage ratio (1) keeps rising while our funding rates (2) are falling indicating more bullish sentiment at future traders. Even if we have liquidated almost $1b in longs (3) in yesterdays dump, they are still

placing more high leverage longs expecting a bounce at 42k. Imo the 42k is a trap to generate more longs and rekt them to generate more pressure and dumpt the price heading 39k as predicted since days based on #Bitfinex walls. I have tweeted about that already several times.

While our Longs/Shorts ratio within 24h was looking bearish, that flipped again to bullish again and matches to the funding rates indicating more longs coming. Perfect conditions to dump even more and rekt more longs.

Taking into account that Hedge funds are longing again, that could be a sign for a coming retrace. We need to check the next CME report if they keeps longing. That would also indicate a coming pump. While they have closed a lot of their shorts already. Too early to predict their

next steps yet, but I will check the CME data frequently from now on.

I stick to my plan. My exit level for my short is at $40k. I still think we will dump heading 38.5k to retrace quick. Stay a while an 40k to generate more shorts and pump crazy afterwards to rekt them. I will

try to long the local bottom at $38k - $39k. 😜 At the moment I think $42k is a trap to generate more longs because almost the whole CT was expecting the bottom at $42k since few days. My expectations are based on #Bitfinex walls.

Its my last week of vacation, so next week I will keep tweeting my analyzes but I will have much less time. So, less replies and not such detailed analyzes anymore except weekends. 🤷‍♂️😬

As some of you ask for the #Bitfinex walls. They have placed a new wall at $40.5k and they reinforced its wall at 39k. The wall at $38.5k maintains there, but not reinforced yet.

#Bitfinex placed a new wall at 44k and above at 46.7k. Does that look uncoordinated for you? 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️