Thread by @Ex_Trac

1. Recent pronouncements from #Moscow about its ‘concerns’ around the use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (#CBRN) weapons systems in #Ukraine are having a direct and sustained impact on the pro-#Russia information landscape.

2. @Ex_Trac data shows that #Moscow’s comms re #CBRN have been normalising it as ‘reasonable’ justification for war among pro-#Kremlin communities.

To track this, we visualised the frequency with which #CBRN-related terms have been referenced by pro-#Kremlin voices over 2021/22.

3. The regularity of posts including the word ‘биолаборатория’ (‘biolaboratory’) increased by a factor of more than four hundred after the #Kremlin’s claim it was targeting bioweapons facilities at the end of February.

4. Similarly, the term ‘ядерный’ (‘nuclear’), which in the year up to 24 February had been posted around three times a day on average on pro-Kremlin feeds, was used between five and ten times more regularly after #Putin raised its spectre days after the invasion started.

5. As for the term ‘АЭС’ (‘nuclear plant’), references to it increased 50-fold in the week that followed #Russia’s initial incursion.

Given last week’s reports that #Russia was planning a false flag at #Chernobyl, this spike is particular cause for concern.

6. The surge in chatter around #Ukraine’s CBRN 'threat' comes amidst a realignment of #Moscow’s war narrative (prompted by its slow progress to date).

It simultaneously makes a case for the continuation of the war while—potentially—setting the scene for a #Kremlin false flag.

7. In the coming weeks, we’ll continue to closely monitor the #Kremlin-aligned comms space.

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