Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Director @ENC_Europe | Author of Security Threats along EUโ€™s ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Eastern Flanks (Palgrave: London) | #CentralAsia #Caucasus #Tรผrkiye #MENA | Independence |

Mar 26, 2022, 20 tweets

New SAMP-T ๐Ÿš€ talks (@NATO summit) confirms our preliminary @ENC_Europe research findings on ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น security & ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ cooperation.

Title: Is ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท relationship worth saving? Why bilateral relations, defence and energy matter.

Thread ๐Ÿงต resume of research below โฌ‡๏ธ๐Ÿ‘‡ [17 points]

First some context, what lay at the root of difficult ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ relations (including defence):

โ€ขPKK/YPG/PYD threat
โ€ขGulen in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Pennsylvania
โ€ข๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ทDemocracy/ROL
โ€ข๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท trade irritants/non-competitive practices
โ€ขDiscovery of #Eastmed gas, UNCLOS & #JCPOA ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท problems . . .

โ€ข๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท EU membership โ€œdiluting ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บโ€ (๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท)
โ€ข๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท MB sponsoring (๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท)
โ€ข๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท #EastMed provocations & ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณLibya issue ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทโ›ด
โ€ข๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท unilateralism in Syria (๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท)
โ€ขInternational systemic changes (๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ)
โ€ขIraq war and โ€œstrategic autonomyโ€
โ€ขS-400s, โ˜ข๏ธAkkayu and Blue&TurkStream โ›ฝ๏ธ
โ€ขCyprus ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ . . .

So why is ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท defence (๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น SAMP-T) gaining momentum ahead of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท defence?

The ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ war pushes ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท against ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ due to #MiddleCorridor rivalry. This unites ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท, thereby allowing both to compromise on previous disagreements (Eastmed/Syria), which halted 2018 SAMP-T talks . . .

And why does ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท prefer to purchase ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น defence? Because
i) SAMP-T EUROSAM Thales negotiations promise more tech transfer & better pricing than Raytheon Patriot Missiles
ii) Erdogan has a profound distrust of the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ compared to ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ because Washington hosts Gulen etc . . .

What to expect now, in the aftermath of @NATO summitโ€™s positive momentum (Mariupol ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท collective evacuation agenda and ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น SAMP-T)? . . .

Firstly, the continuation of SAMP-T negotiations under EUROSAM with (potentially) more details and timelines soon.

If things improve further: expect ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท cooperation in areas like S. Caucasus on border-management/infrastructure/investment EIB/EBRD & CSDP (#StrategicCompass). . .

Separately, ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท could show renewed interest in reviving Sinop Nuclear โ˜ข๏ธ construction with ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต despite pricing issues. Other options: ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท renewed secular-diplomatic relations with Israel, Gulf & Egypt, as opposed to radical religious movements in Africa/Muslim Brotherhood . .

In terms of energy, it is not unlikely to see ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท play a role in one of four spaces: Iran ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท or Eastmed ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ (could go either way..) are two main contenders: South Pars/Iran gas versus Zor, Aphrodite, Leviathan etc. Less likely but long-term options include Iraq & Turkmenistan . .

An eventual ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท rapprochement would likely kick-start a New ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Framework, which could then replace the โ€˜never-ending-accession-processโ€™ and propose a more substantial alternative: credible, equal & long-term institutionalised and multi-sector Framework ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท . . .

Such an eventual ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท framework would depend on ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท bilateral ties improving. Based on EU27, the framework would likely prioritise a) energy, b) defence/security & c) full #CustomsUnionReform ๐Ÿ›ƒ, which would add visa liberalisation, trade in services & regional supply-chains . .

Despite such positive ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท NATO momentum, the challenges are plenty, complex & intertwined.

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท relations depend on many factors, but an important one is Turkeyโ€™s domestic environment. As K. Attaturk says: โ€œpeace at home, peace in the worldโ€ (Yurtta sulh, cihanda sulh"). . .

Attaturkโ€™s words apply when we analyse how ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท sees ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท in MENA/Africa: a balance between religious-tolerance & laicite is necessary in ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท โ€™s domestic politics because it affects Ankaraโ€™s foreign-policy-alliances in with extreme religious groups and/or secular groups abroad. . .

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท is also waiting for ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท to decrease tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean (which ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท has successfully done in the past year) and now Paris wants Turkey to gradually decouple (funding, exiles, support) from specific extremist groups and especially MB in Egypt. . .

In return, Paris ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท will have to respect ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ทโ€™s legitimate security concerns on southern border with Syria. The 1998 Adana Protocol clearly outlines this & itโ€™s a prerequisite for ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท. In their current form, PKK (banned in ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ) and YPG/PYD are part of a similar terror network . . .

Provided that bilateral ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น relations improve (due to defence contract negotiations & the points above) then Paris & Ankara stand a chance to rewrite ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท relations. They would likely prioritise: #Security #PESCO #CUReform #GlobalGateway #EnergyDiversification #Migration . .

Any new ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท framework could also include #Digitalisation & #GreenDeal considering that ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท finally ratified the #ParisAgreement ๐ŸŒŽโ™ป๏ธ in 2021. The ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EUโ€™s promised 1-trillion-euro-budget ๐Ÿ’ถ is likely to be very transformative, dubbed the Marshal Plan of 21st century . . .

Provided this all happens, what are the barriers left?
i) ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท is expected to halt its uncompetitive practices & tackle trade irritants, while preparing itself for public procurement and making sure that itโ€™s diverse domestic economic sectors are โ€œon boardโ€ ahead of #CUReform . . .

i) ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท would finally need to uphold a degree of judicial independence, multi-party democracy & respect for ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ทโ€™s diverse cultural traditions (language,minority,laicite). This largely reflects ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บconditions & Turkish ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท peopleโ€™s demands for freedom, prosperity & stability today [END]

Correction: MENA/Muslim Brotherhood

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