Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Director @ENC_Europe | Author of Managing Security Threats along EU’s Eastern Flanks (Palgrave Macmillan; London) | #CentralAsia #Caucasus #EaP #Türkiye #MENA |
Jul 2 12 tweets 10 min read
‘#Turkey/#Türkiye 🇹🇷 in the New European Security Architecture’ is part of @EurLiberalForum’s annual security handbook.

🔟-point 🇪🇺🇹🇷 summary🧵below👇⤵️

*This publication is part of @ALDEParty’s think-tank which provides advise to 🇪🇺 liberal parties & politicians:……

1️⃣ Context: #EU & #Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 are extremely inter-dependent on one another (e.g. FDI, trade, supply-chains, CU, migration, corridor to Asia, energy transit, renewable needs, technology etc.). This is both well-documented and unavoidable in part due to the 1995/1996 Customs……

Jan 28 11 tweets 11 min read
Why are #Azerbaijan #Iran 🇦🇿🇮🇷 relations so bad?

Five 5️⃣ simple facts 🧵 (below) help explain why the 🇦🇿🇮🇷 Azeri-Iranian relationship has deteriorated and what’s really behind the recent attack against 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran ⤵️ . . . 1️⃣ #Sociologically: Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 & Iran 🇮🇷 are very different societies. Iran’s regime has a hardline, old and extreme interpretation of Shia-religion, while Azerbaijan has a more modern interpretation (gender parity, customs etc). It lay at the root of many differences . . .
Nov 17, 2022 9 tweets 5 min read
“The Ottomans’ relationship with the Crimean Khans is fascinating” (Quataert, 2005, Ottoman Empire 1700-1922) ⤵️

Why does #Turkey 🇹🇷 defend #Ukraine 🇺🇦 ? Why does Turkey reject #Russia’s 🇷🇺 occupation of #Crimea?

[6-point historical thread 📚🧵] ⤵️ 1️⃣ Crimean Khans are “. . . descendants of the Golden Horde (Mongols of Lake Baykal) and vassals of the Ottoman sultans from 1475 until 1774, when that tie was (temporarily) severed as a prelude to their annexation and occupation by 🇷🇺 Czarist state in 1783” . . .
May 27, 2022 9 tweets 5 min read
#UK 🇬🇧 has decided to lift restrictions on arms exports to #Turkey 🇹🇷. This is closely aligned with the on-going 🇬🇧🇹🇷🇮🇹 development of the #Eurofighter by BAE Systems for #Turkey 🇹🇷. #Italy 🇮🇹 #Spain 🇪🇸 #Germany 🇩🇪 may do the same soon, due to the 🇹🇷 Eurofighter production-links. Some friends/colleagues and Twitter users texted questions on restrictions & wider problems, so here I clarify (I also speak on @trtworld next week):

1️⃣ UK 🇬🇧 has lifted its limited arms restrictions on Turkey 🇹🇷, but it’s not the first one to do so (others may follow) . . .
May 21, 2022 8 tweets 5 min read
No: #Turkey 🇹🇷 is not #Russia’s 🇷🇺 secret weapon in NATO.

In fact: 🇹🇷≠🇷🇺 compete in Syria, Libya, Black Sea, LNG, Central Asia & South Caucasus (image).

That said, Erdoğan’s personal relationship to Putin is too close, according to many diplomats.

Detailed 📖 list below📚⬇️👇 1️⃣📚To better understand the strategic difficulties and inherent competition between Turkey and Russia, please read:… . . .
May 20, 2022 20 tweets 13 min read
This week’s violence & protests in East #Tajikistan is happening because of existing & new social-economic, geo-political & historical dynamics.


⏩ Historical context
⏩ Protest
⏩ Remittences & COVID
⏩ Geo-Afghanistan
⏩ Local expert & voices to follow

👇⬇️ Historical context: Tajikistan’s 🇹🇯 civil war lasted from 1992 until 1997. The Lali Badakhshan party (part of United Tajik Opposition) represented an important element of the East Tajikistan faction from the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region(GBOA) located in the Pamir area . . .
Apr 20, 2022 22 tweets 17 min read
On Monday (18/04/2022) #Turkey 🇹🇷 launched #OperationClawLock in North Iraq 🇮🇶 (KRG/KRI) against #PKK facilities.

What’s the context behind this military activity?

▶️ Terror, energy & geopolitics ◀️


[10-point thread🧵] . . . 1️⃣ KRG @masrour_barzani met @RTErdogan this weekend to discuss 🇹🇷’s military operation and gas exportation (🇮🇶>🇹🇷&🇪🇺)

Yesterday Barzani visited London. He seeks purchasing guarantees, investment & reassurances against Iran 🇮🇷/PKK, as both are against the exportation of Iraq gas.
Mar 26, 2022 20 tweets 14 min read
New SAMP-T 🚀 talks (@NATO summit) confirms our preliminary @ENC_Europe research findings on 🇫🇷🇹🇷🇮🇹 security & 🇪🇺 cooperation.

Title: Is 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relationship worth saving? Why bilateral relations, defence and energy matter.

Thread 🧵 resume of research below ⬇️👇 [17 points] First some context, what lay at the root of difficult 🇪🇺🇹🇷🇺🇸 relations (including defence):

•PKK/YPG/PYD threat
•Gulen in 🇺🇸 Pennsylvania
•🇹🇷 trade irritants/non-competitive practices
•Discovery of #Eastmed gas, UNCLOS & #JCPOA 🇮🇷 problems . . .
Mar 25, 2022 10 tweets 11 min read
🚨🇺🇦🇷🇺 #UkraineRussiaWar could spillover into other areas: hot-spots are #Ganja #Zangezur #Lachin in #Azerbaijan & #Armenia 🇦🇿🇦🇲. Caucasus is critical for 🇪🇺🇹🇷 to circumvent Russia 🇷🇺 while still trading with Asia. However 🇷🇺has troops there since 2020 ceasefire.

Thread [9]🧵⬇️ #Russia🇷🇺 is run by an increasingly paranoid & violent leader. As Moscow is cut-off from the international system due to sanctions, it is rapidly losing its strategic role as a transit country between Asia & Europe in China’s🇨🇳multi-billion #BeltRoadInitiative (in-land) . . .