Everyone (including myself) is disappointed about last week's #EU 🇪🇺 Council #EUCO #Türkiye 🇹🇷 conclusions.

5️⃣-point 'real(ity)-politik-check'

🧵⤵️





1️⃣ Last week's #EUCO demonstrates a perfect case of the 🇪🇺 #EU reaching the lowest common denominator.

The statement (See image) recycles previous #EUCO wording and @JosepBorrellF's Joint-Communication 🇹🇷 from 2023. Its generic, reversible and dependent on #Cyprus 🇨🇾🇪🇺, which means its close-to-a-dead-end.

This has been described eloquently by longtime experts @NathalieTocci, @narisan61, @sinanulgen1 and others.

. . . (Continued)

Yesterday #Türkiye 🇹🇷 witnessed a #CHP-opposition landslide in local elections.

But with a general election 4 years away, what does it mean?

5️⃣ socio-analytical points ⤵️





1️⃣ The results are historical.

The last time CHP (opposition) won nationwide was in 1977. With 90+% of the vote counted this morning it is certain that all major cities/metropolitan municipalities of #Turkiye 🇹🇷 have re-appointed CHP or switched away from AKP, including: Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Izmir, Adana, Antalya, Balıkesir, Manisa, Kütahya, Adıyaman, Amasya, Kırıkkale and Denizli.

CHP won 35 of Turkey's 81 provincial capitals. This is how all political parties performed nation-wide:¹

CHP  37.74% (Won 7.93%)
AKP 35.49%. (Lost 7%)
YRP 6.19% (Won 6.19%)
DEM 5.68% (Won 1.16%)
MHP 4.98% (Loss 2.46%)
IYI 3.77% (Loss 3.99%)

In practice, the government (Erdoğan's party and his ultra-nationalist alliance MHP) faced a big loss, while the other more pro-opposition nationalist party (IYI) also performed poorly while Aksener has stepped down. Same thing applies for the hardline anti-migration party Zafer Party. The real winners were the opposition, with CHP and Ekrem İmamoğlu in first place, followed by a small growth for Kurdish-ex-HDP party now known as DEM. The fastest - and very important - electoral rise came from ex-Refah party which is now known as the New Welfare Party (YRP). This party is run by the son of Necmettin Erbakhan, a much loved/hated² #Turkiye 🇹🇷 Prime Minister of the 1990s. YPR is a blend of very hardline religious views (e.g. close to anti-secular), ultra-nationalism (e.g. #Turkiye First Protectionism) and vehement anti-Israel 🇮🇱 views.

(Continued . . .)

On this Monday (29th) and Tuesday (30th) the #GlobalGateway 💶🌐#InvestorForum is held in Brussels with signing of new partnerships & major funds for #EU-#CentralAsia 🇪🇺🇰🇿🇰🇬🇹🇯🇹🇲🇺🇿 ⤵️

🔹Geo-Economics?
🔹Why Central Asia?
🔹What Projects?
🔹What To Expect from Forum?

Full Article (20-thread) 🧵⤵️


1⃣Introduction ⤵️

China’s 🇨🇳Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has long been viewed as an important source of investment and international connectivity.

Despite providing huge sums of money to willing-partner countries around the world, BRI now faces a string of undesirable consequences ranging from local discontent (e.g. pollution, land possession, and protests) to issues like low labor standards, debt, and non-inclusive growth.

To date, the most comprehensive and granular study of 13,427 Chinese development projects indicates widespread and unsustainable debt trends (e.g. 10% debt rates) at a time in which Beijing 🇨🇳is facing economic uncertainty.

. . .

‘#Turkey/#Türkiye 🇹🇷 in the New European Security Architecture’ is part of @EurLiberalForum’s annual security handbook.

🔟-point 🇪🇺🇹🇷 summary🧵below👇⤵️

*This publication is part of @ALDEParty’s think-tank which provides advise to 🇪🇺 liberal parties & politicians:… https://t.co/4vMFPpjUI2twitter.com/i/web/status/1…




1️⃣ Context: #EU & #Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 are extremely inter-dependent on one another (e.g. FDI, trade, supply-chains, CU, migration, corridor to Asia, energy transit, renewable needs, technology etc.). This is both well-documented and unavoidable in part due to the 1995/1996 Customs… https://t.co/1CfYHc3yjstwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Why are #Azerbaijan #Iran 🇦🇿🇮🇷 relations so bad?

Five 5️⃣ simple facts 🧵 (below) help explain why the 🇦🇿🇮🇷 Azeri-Iranian relationship has deteriorated and what’s really behind the recent attack against 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran ⤵️ . . . 1️⃣ #Sociologically: Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 & Iran 🇮🇷 are very different societies. Iran’s regime has a hardline, old and extreme interpretation of Shia-religion, while Azerbaijan has a more modern interpretation (gender parity, customs etc). It lay at the root of many differences . . .

“The Ottomans’ relationship with the Crimean Khans is fascinating” (Quataert, 2005, Ottoman Empire 1700-1922) ⤵️

Why does #Turkey 🇹🇷 defend #Ukraine 🇺🇦 ? Why does Turkey reject #Russia’s 🇷🇺 occupation of #Crimea?

[6-point historical thread 📚🧵] ⤵️ 1️⃣ Crimean Khans are “. . . descendants of the Golden Horde (Mongols of Lake Baykal) and vassals of the Ottoman sultans from 1475 until 1774, when that tie was (temporarily) severed as a prelude to their annexation and occupation by 🇷🇺 Czarist state in 1783” . . .

#UK 🇬🇧 has decided to lift restrictions on arms exports to #Turkey 🇹🇷. This is closely aligned with the on-going 🇬🇧🇹🇷🇮🇹 development of the #Eurofighter by BAE Systems for #Turkey 🇹🇷. #Italy 🇮🇹 #Spain 🇪🇸 #Germany 🇩🇪 may do the same soon, due to the 🇹🇷 Eurofighter production-links. Some friends/colleagues and Twitter users texted questions on restrictions & wider problems, so here I clarify (I also speak on @trtworld next week):

1️⃣ UK 🇬🇧 has lifted its limited arms restrictions on Turkey 🇹🇷, but it’s not the first one to do so (others may follow) . . .

No: #Turkey 🇹🇷 is not #Russia’s 🇷🇺 secret weapon in NATO.

In fact: 🇹🇷≠🇷🇺 compete in Syria, Libya, Black Sea, LNG, Central Asia & South Caucasus (image).

That said, Erdoğan’s personal relationship to Putin is too close, according to many diplomats.

Detailed 📖 list below📚⬇️👇

https://twitter.com/lenaargiri/status/1527633129669804034

1️⃣📚To better understand the strategic difficulties and inherent competition between Turkey and Russia, please read: warontherocks.com/2020/04/dont-f… . . .

This week’s violence & protests in East #Tajikistan is happening because of existing & new social-economic, geo-political & historical dynamics.

[18-points🧵]

⏩ Historical context
⏩ Protest
⏩ Remittences & COVID
⏩ Geo-Afghanistan
⏩ Local expert & voices to follow

👇⬇️ Historical context: Tajikistan’s 🇹🇯 civil war lasted from 1992 until 1997. The Lali Badakhshan party (part of United Tajik Opposition) represented an important element of the East Tajikistan faction from the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region(GBOA) located in the Pamir area . . .

On Monday (18/04/2022) #Turkey 🇹🇷 launched #OperationClawLock in North Iraq 🇮🇶 (KRG/KRI) against #PKK facilities.

What’s the context behind this military activity?

▶️ Terror, energy & geopolitics ◀️

Below👇⬇️

[10-point thread🧵] . . . 1️⃣ KRG @masrour_barzani met @RTErdogan this weekend to discuss 🇹🇷’s military operation and gas exportation (🇮🇶>🇹🇷&🇪🇺)

Yesterday Barzani visited London. He seeks purchasing guarantees, investment & reassurances against Iran 🇮🇷/PKK, as both are against the exportation of Iraq gas.

New SAMP-T 🚀 talks (@NATO summit) confirms our preliminary @ENC_Europe research findings on 🇫🇷🇹🇷🇮🇹 security & 🇪🇺 cooperation.

Title: Is 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relationship worth saving? Why bilateral relations, defence and energy matter.

Thread 🧵 resume of research below ⬇️👇 [17 points] First some context, what lay at the root of difficult 🇪🇺🇹🇷🇺🇸 relations (including defence):

•PKK/YPG/PYD threat
•Gulen in 🇺🇸 Pennsylvania
•🇹🇷Democracy/ROL
•🇹🇷 trade irritants/non-competitive practices
•Discovery of #Eastmed gas, UNCLOS & #JCPOA 🇮🇷 problems . . .

🚨🇺🇦🇷🇺 #UkraineRussiaWar could spillover into other areas: hot-spots are #Ganja #Zangezur #Lachin in #Azerbaijan & #Armenia 🇦🇿🇦🇲. Caucasus is critical for 🇪🇺🇹🇷 to circumvent Russia 🇷🇺 while still trading with Asia. However 🇷🇺has troops there since 2020 ceasefire.

Thread [9]🧵⬇️ #Russia🇷🇺 is run by an increasingly paranoid & violent leader. As Moscow is cut-off from the international system due to sanctions, it is rapidly losing its strategic role as a transit country between Asia & Europe in China’s🇨🇳multi-billion #BeltRoadInitiative (in-land) . . .