Samuel Doveri Vesterbye Profile picture
Director at @ENC_Europe | Working on 🇪🇺 Projects in Turkey/ENP/CentralAsia | @agora_brussels | Balance ⚖️ | Weekly Posts on Turkey/CA | 🇩🇰🇮🇹🇧🇪🇬🇷🇹🇷 |
May 27 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
#UK 🇬🇧 has decided to lift restrictions on arms exports to #Turkey 🇹🇷. This is closely aligned with the on-going 🇬🇧🇹🇷🇮🇹 development of the #Eurofighter by BAE Systems for #Turkey 🇹🇷. #Italy 🇮🇹 #Spain 🇪🇸 #Germany 🇩🇪 may do the same soon, due to the 🇹🇷 Eurofighter production-links. Some friends/colleagues and Twitter users texted questions on restrictions & wider problems, so here I clarify (I also speak on @trtworld next week):

1️⃣ UK 🇬🇧 has lifted its limited arms restrictions on Turkey 🇹🇷, but it’s not the first one to do so (others may follow) . . .
May 21 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
No: #Turkey 🇹🇷 is not #Russia’s 🇷🇺 secret weapon in NATO.

In fact: 🇹🇷≠🇷🇺 compete in Syria, Libya, Black Sea, LNG, Central Asia & South Caucasus (image).

That said, Erdoğan’s personal relationship to Putin is too close, according to many diplomats.

Detailed 📖 list below📚⬇️👇 1️⃣📚To better understand the strategic difficulties and inherent competition between Turkey and Russia, please read: warontherocks.com/2020/04/dont-f… . . .
May 20 • 20 tweets • 13 min read
This week’s violence & protests in East #Tajikistan is happening because of existing & new social-economic, geo-political & historical dynamics.

[18-points🧵]

⏩ Historical context
⏩ Protest
⏩ Remittences & COVID
⏩ Geo-Afghanistan
⏩ Local expert & voices to follow

👇⬇️ Historical context: Tajikistan’s 🇹🇯 civil war lasted from 1992 until 1997. The Lali Badakhshan party (part of United Tajik Opposition) represented an important element of the East Tajikistan faction from the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region(GBOA) located in the Pamir area . . .
Apr 20 • 22 tweets • 17 min read
On Monday (18/04/2022) #Turkey 🇹🇷 launched #OperationClawLock in North Iraq 🇮🇶 (KRG/KRI) against #PKK facilities.

What’s the context behind this military activity?

▶️ Terror, energy & geopolitics ◀️

Below👇⬇️

[10-point thread🧵] . . . 1️⃣ KRG @masrour_barzani met @RTErdogan this weekend to discuss 🇹🇷’s military operation and gas exportation (🇮🇶>🇹🇷&🇪🇺)

Yesterday Barzani visited London. He seeks purchasing guarantees, investment & reassurances against Iran 🇮🇷/PKK, as both are against the exportation of Iraq gas.
Mar 26 • 20 tweets • 14 min read
New SAMP-T 🚀 talks (@NATO summit) confirms our preliminary @ENC_Europe research findings on 🇫🇷🇹🇷🇮🇹 security & 🇪🇺 cooperation.

Title: Is 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relationship worth saving? Why bilateral relations, defence and energy matter.

Thread 🧵 resume of research below ⬇️👇 [17 points] First some context, what lay at the root of difficult 🇪🇺🇹🇷🇺🇸 relations (including defence):

•PKK/YPG/PYD threat
•Gulen in 🇺🇸 Pennsylvania
•🇹🇷Democracy/ROL
•🇹🇷 trade irritants/non-competitive practices
•Discovery of #Eastmed gas, UNCLOS & #JCPOA 🇮🇷 problems . . .
Mar 25 • 10 tweets • 11 min read
🚨🇺🇦🇷🇺 #UkraineRussiaWar could spillover into other areas: hot-spots are #Ganja #Zangezur #Lachin in #Azerbaijan & #Armenia 🇦🇿🇦🇲. Caucasus is critical for 🇪🇺🇹🇷 to circumvent Russia 🇷🇺 while still trading with Asia. However 🇷🇺has troops there since 2020 ceasefire.

Thread [9]🧵⬇️ #Russia🇷🇺 is run by an increasingly paranoid & violent leader. As Moscow is cut-off from the international system due to sanctions, it is rapidly losing its strategic role as a transit country between Asia & Europe in China’s🇨🇳multi-billion #BeltRoadInitiative (in-land) . . .