A 🧵on the #Dmitrievsky #Chemical Plant explosion and fire. On @Twitter I mostly post on Data Security (20year as a CxO and #Votehacking. But I also have 9 years as CEO and longer on BODs of #AdvancedMaterials / #NanoMaterials.
The extreme damage, perhaps total destruction of this chemical plant is going to have a spectacular and massive impact on the #RussianArmy. Possibly grinding entire systems to a stop in weeks, perhaps even days.
Like many industrial sectors in #Russia, they tend to be centralized, massive + singular. This is generally a result of historic centralization of production under the Soviet model, and a fear of building massive high-cost infrastructure by nonRU firms #BASF #DuPont etc.
At one of my prior firms, bid products from this plant. AFAIK, they are the only maker of a huge range of solvents and reactives of this kind in W. #Russia. See here: dcpt.ru/production/pro…
Among the products this plant made are the additives needed for advanced rocket/jet fuels, treatments/solvents for servicing metal parts, core input chemicals for explosive and solvents/traces/washes needed to manufacture electronics and circuits.
This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war. For those who may think Tier 1/2s will have stock on hand; Nope. At most 2-3 weeks as these are VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) that die on the shelf.
I will provide a Domestic Example. In mid 2020 Midland MI had a 100 year flood and a massive local dam failure. That flood knocked out DOZENS of 1-of-a-kind US Specialty Chemical processes centered in that area. My firms, and 100s of others had to scramble for global backfill.
It took 18+ months of global fill-in sourcing for US firms to stabilize post Midland Floods and US Production still has not fully recovered. #RussiaSanctions will prevent them from doing the same. I am certain in every corner of #Russian industry is in full panic.
I have been reading the brilliant #RussiaUkraineWar coverage of @OzKaterji @Militarylandnet @KofmanMichael @HN_Schlottman @Nrg8000 but if this #ChemicalPlant Fire is as bad as it appears, this will not be a long war. #Russia has lost a unique key tool it needs to make #War.
If you have not seen the fire, or know what I am talking about...here is the Mirror's coverage... mirror.co.uk/news/world-new…
Of course the solution to this issue will likely be #China. I am sure they are likely scrambling to backfill/replace #Russia as I type, but that is going to be complicated on a numerous levels.
And there are echos of the past to consider. Many historians note the destruction of one town in Germany, crippled the Nazi war machine. The town made 99% of their Ball Bearings. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schweinfu…
Folks asked by DM and in comments for a BDA. Spoke with three fellow #chemicalplant #folks... our thoughts.
And if you want a short version of what this plant did, here is the 2nd thread I wrote just to explain what type of plant this was... #chemistry and #chemical #engineering is complex folks.
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