1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 65-66. The 48hrs has seen Russian forces continue their integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. UKR forces have executed several successful counterattacks around Kharkiv. #WarinUkraine #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for eastern Ukraine favors Russian offensive operations. Steady higher temps (17-23 C) will continue to dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. Cloud cover will not degrade VKS sorties or UAV operations.
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukrainian forces continue to conduct successful counterattacks to the north and east of Kharkiv, slowly pushing Russian forces toward the Russian border and Siverskyi Donets. Russian forces in the area are not adequate to slow Ukrainian attacks. #Kharkiv #Lozova
4/ Recent Ukrainian attacks in east Kharkiv may be attempting to push Russian forces away from the Siverskyi Donets and towards the Russian border to improve conditions for an eventual push toward Velvkyi Burluk & Kupyansk.
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces maintain a steady yet grinding pace in gaining ground against Ukrainian forces along the Siverskyi Donets Line. If steady success can be maintained, Russian troops may be able to achieve a breakthrough in the coming weeks. #Donbas
6/ However, the recent redeployment of the 4th & 17th Ukrainian Tank Brigades to the Severodonetsk Salient provides a powerful combined arms reserve to blunt any Russian penetration of Ukrainian defenses.
7/ So far, Ukraine’s mobile defense throughout the Donbas region has sufficiently disrupted Russian attempts at a general breakthrough. Coupled with counterattacks in the Kharkiv area, Russia will find it difficult to continue sustained offensive action.
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. There has been little activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD over the last 48 hours. Russian forces continue shelling of Ukrainian positions along the defensive line running from Vasylivka, through Huliaipole, to Velyka Novosilka. #Zaporizhzhia #Melitopol
9/ Mariupol. Russian forces conducted a series of assaults from 22-28 April to seize the Avozstal north complex and the M14 Highway, however the M14 Highway in the Azovstal area appears to still be under Ukrainian control. #Mariupol #Azovstal
10/ Social media posting in recent days still show Russian troops combating isolate pockets of resistance throughout Mariupol. Russian forces use artillery as direct fire weapon systems to reduce remaining strongpoint defenses.
11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Russian forces have shifted their activity in the past 48 hours from expanding the Kherson defensive perimeter to consolidating gains made around Oleksandrivka and Tavriiske. It is likely Russia will still how their “KPR referendum” in early May. #Kherson
12/ Aerospace Assessment. Russia continues to employ long-range strike (primarily missile attacks) against key points of communication and infrastructure targets in western & southern Ukraine.
13/ Ukrainian refugees total 7.56+ million with 5.8+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 1.73+ throughout Europe, and 7.5+ million internally displaced people throughout Ukraine (1.4+ million in eastern & 228K in southern Ukraine).
14/ The UN brokered a deal to evacuate a small number of civilians from the Azovstal area, but hundreds more remain under siege. The commanders of the Azov Regiment & 36th Marine Brigade continue to appeal for a larger evacuation of civilians & wounded.
15/ Overall Assessment. Russian momentum may be nearing a critical inflection point. If successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kharkiv region continue it will force the Russians to shift already limited resources from the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD to stabilize the Kharkiv OD.
16/ With three tank brigades in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD concentrated against the Russian main effort from Izium to Popsana, the Ukrainians will be able to reverse Russian gains if they are forced to pull troops to secure their GLOCs to the north.
17/ We once again see the Ukrainian General Staff employing the principal of continuity by exploiting Russian vulnerability in command & logistical support to keep Russian forces under unrelenting pressure through a well-executed mobile defense as they advance.
18/ This pressure denys Russian forces the ability to regain equilibrium through their current offensive, as evident of the daily slowing progress of Russian forces. Ukraine’s mobile defense may be able to force the Russians to once again seek disengagement to prevent disaster.
19/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
20/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END
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