Thread by @bctallis

18 years ago this week the #EU gained 10 new members.

8 of them were former communist states & its often forgotten that their accession was a high point of EU Geopolitics.

The way we understand it matters a lot for the present moment - for the EU as well as for #Ukraine.
A 🧵

It matters b/c too many in the #EU have come to see enlargement as a form of charity, bestowed by a virtuous Western Europe that pays the costs, while Easterners - who should be grateful - get the benefits.
This is wrong on many levels - as history of enlargement (&🇪🇺) shows.

For leading dissidents turned national leaders like Vaclav Havel & Lech Walesa (& others)– EU & NATO membership were essential to securing their countries' symbolic ‘Return to Europe’
(don’t ask where they’d been- it's complicated)
& for their very material, existential security.

Setting aside the ridiculous debates on NATO expansion (no, it wasn't a legit security concern for #Russia) it might seem like EU enlargement was a foregone conclusion. But that's not the case - far from it. The #CEE states had to fight tooth & nail to secure their EU place

As Frank Schimmelfennig shows, some W. European states thought (wrongly) they could get the benefits by offering association w/out perceived cost of offering membership. But this wasn't enough for #CEE (& nor, in reality, for EU ...)
library.fes.de/libalt/journal…

So #CEE leaders used two main tactics:
1. Warn about the dangers of anti-democratic forces rising in the region if it wasn't properly integrated.

2. Leverage their moral credibility as dissidents who epitomised their people's struggle for freedom amid the privations of communism

The first appealed to an interests calculation but the second appealed to the moral conscience of Western Europeans who knew that CEE had suffered for geopolitical 'stability'.
It worked - and that's a good thing.
But it also leads to the 'Charity' view & focused on the past ...

The charity view is wrong, the backward looking view is incomplete - and they are both unhelpful for European understanding & action today.

Thankfully, at the time, there were some more far-sighted W. European decision makers - including in the EC itself who realised that ...

Enlargement was actually aligned with the three key elements of the EU's unique identity & historical success & pursuit o interests. beyond the std. 'Econ interdependence' story, I'd highlight:
▶️1. Creative Geopolitics
▶️2. Transformative Power
▶️3. Progressive Security.

1⃣Creative Geopolitics:
Re-imagining borders & sovereignty to foster mutual interference & oversight: prevents war (coal, steel) AND allows deeper engagement & encounter to mutual benefit.➡️Single. Market, Eurozone, Schengen, Creation of EU itself
▶️For Peace & Prosperity

2⃣ Transformative Power (2 fold):
A- Transforms structural conflicts (e.g. 🇫🇷🇩🇪) into structural cooperation by deep interconnection of nations as well as states identification through density of G2G, but also P2P & B2B encounter, that takes the danger out of difference.

2⃣ Transformative Power (2 fold):
B - Transformation of societies from dictatorships to democracies - and support & sustain their (generally) democratic character to their benefit of their own citizens & other states which are less likely to come conflict with them (e.g.🇬🇷🇪🇸🇵🇹🇩🇪)

3⃣ Progressive Security
A voluntary 'sphere of integration' model (rather than 'spheres of influence') as EU geol contribution ➡️view of brighter futures for more people (the essence of progress) & sees the world outside & inside borders as source of opportunity not just threat.

The key point here is that in each of these 3⃣ ways, enlargement served EU interests as well as manifesting its proclaimed values.
It was no coincidence that, paraphrasing, Romano Prodi later described it as the EU's greatest contribution to sustainable security in Europe.

1. It added further influence & legitimacy to the EU's creative geopolitics & sphere of integration model
2. had a transformative effect on CEE states & their relations with W. Eur (albeit incomplete)
3. Can do - Extended benefits & brighter future of EU membership to more ppl

in Central, Eastern AND Western Europe. This came with Economic benefits (as unevenly shared as they are), cultural benefits & security benefits. The EU's geopolitical weight greatly increased & its model was legitimated. But, at this moment of triumph
ip-quarterly.com/en/integrating…

It already started to move away from it and instead take an approach based more on:
1. Traditional geopolitics & hard borders
2. Aspirations for Hard Power
3. Protective Security - fearing & defending from the world
@youngsrichard is a superb chronicler of these trends & more.

That's for another thread (& the piece below)
But the point is that
1) that shift in EU approach to a much narrower, less visionary & less progressive one -
PLUS
2) the CHARITY view of enlargement

➡️a misreading of EU interests re #Ukraine
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/07/ukr…

There are very clear costs (not least financial) that enlarging the EU to include #Ukraine would incur.
- needs reconstructing (like🇩🇪 did)
& difficulties e.g
- territorial questions (like🇨🇾)
But we grossly undercalculate the benefits - esp to #EU power & geopolitical influence

No one should pretend that the 2004 enlargement hasn't come with problems - but now its benefits (not only to CEE & WE citizens but also to the EU more widely tend to be overlooked (as are problems of 'older' EU members)
This approach shouldn't guide us on #Ukraine️

By learning the right lessons, we should, in a highly rational, interest-driven way, revert to a 'Can Do' rather 'Can't Do' approach to the Ukraine, to the world & to our internal-EU issues.
This embodies our values, can help revive progress & uncancel all our futures. / END

PS - there are many critiques that intersect with these issues (incl.on the illiberal & civilisational tendencies of the EU, probs with Econ liberalism, hierarcrhies of transition, liberal internationalism, western decline, etc) but one thread can't rule them all ... more soon.

And here's some links to some of my work on these topics:
ip-quarterly.com/en/why-europes…

geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world…

rusi.org/explore-our-re…

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…