The Litecoin Halving is scheduled for August 2023
What historical price tendencies does $LTC showcase prior to its Halving and after its Halving?
A thread...
#BTC #LTC #Crypto #Litecoin
1.
$LTC tends to rally quite strongly prior to its Halving
Prior to Halving 1, #LTC bottomed 122 days and rallied +820%
Prior to Halving 2, LTC bottomed 243 days and rallied +550%
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
2.
On the other hand, how much does $LTC rally AFTER its Halving?
After Halving 1, #LTC rallied +14200%
After Halving 2, LTC rallied +1574%
Therefore, a key historical tendency emerges:
• LTC tends to rally more post-Halving compared to pre-Halving
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
3.
Let's focus on the $LTC Pre-Halving rally
While #LTC rallies strongly prior to the Halving...
LTC sharply and deeply retraces immediately after the Halving
LTC retraced -73% in the 578 days Post-Halving 1
LTC retraced -83% in the 458 days Post-Halving 2
#Crypto #Litecoin
4.
For that reason it's important to understand when a $LTC Pre-Halving rally tends to top
#LTC tends to top out just before the Halving
LTC topped 31 days Pre-Halving 1
LTC topped 61 days Pre-Halving 2
Could LTC top 92 days Pre-Halving 3 in May 2023?
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
5.
But what if the Pre-Halving top isn't occurring 30 days earlier prior to each $LTC Halving? (i.e. 30>60>90 days)
What if instead it is occurring in doubling fashion (30>60>120)?
If that were to be the case, a #LTC Pre-Halving top would occur in April 2023
#Crypto #Litecoin
6.
What's also interesting is how long these Pre-Halving $LTC rallies last in terms of time
From bottom to top, the #LTC Pre-Halving 1 rally lasted ~90 days
The LTC Pre-Halving 2 rally lasted twice that amount at ~180 days
Is there a pattern here?
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
7.
It looks like $LTC Pre-Halving rallies may be lengthening in time
If this upcoming #LTC Pre-Halving rally lasts twice as long as the previous PH rally, then this rally will last ~365 days
Which finds confluence with a May 2023 top
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
8.
There is confluence for an early/mid-Q2 $LTC Pre-Halving top
But how much could #LTC rally ahead of its August 2023 Halving?
Pre-Halving return may be declining
But is it declining by +269% each time?
If so LTC could rally up to +285% before August 2023
#Crypto #Litecoin
9
Such a rally would mean that $LTC would reach a major resistance (red)
Red is where the Pre-Halving 2019 rally topped
#LTC also briefly held support there after its 2021 Bull Market peak to form the Macro Downtrend (confluent resistance with red area)
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
10.
Once $LTC forms its Pre-Halving top...
#LTC tends to strongly retrace (min. -75%)
And when that correction ends, LTC tends to form a new Accumulation Range
Post-Halving 1, #Litecoin formed an Ascending Triangle
Post-Halving 2, LTC formed a normal sideways range
#Crypto
11.
Interestingly, these Post-Halving $LTC ranges develop at a Higher Low (orange) compared to where #LTC bottomed prior to the Halving.
So what implications could that have for LTC’s Post-Halving retracement?
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
12.
If $LTC were to perform its Pre-Halving top at the red resistance & form a Higher Low relative to the Pre-Halving low…
Then the #LTC Post-Halving retracement would be ~-60%
But history suggests this retrace should be deeper than that (min. -73%)
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
13.
How can we reconcile this?
If a -73% to -78% Post-Halving retrace were to occur, then $LTC would still hold a Higher Low (orange)
A -73% #LTC retrace would be above 2022 Pre-Halving low
A -78% retrace would go below 2022 low but still respect Higher Low
#Crypto #Litecoin
14.
Such a $LTC Post-Halving retrace would create a new Post-Halving Accumulation Range (black)
Historically, such #LTC Ranges have been ~72%-77% wide
Key to watch for deep Post-Halving retrace followed by long consolidation in an approx 70%-wide Range
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
15.
When would $LTC breakout into a Post-Halving rally?
Historically, #LTC has consolidated in a Post-Halving Range for 458-578 days before breakout
If consolidation time is constantly declining by ~120 days then it could take a year for LTC to breakout
#Crypto #Litecoin
16.
This would coincide with a July 2024 $LTC breakout
This would make sense as this #LTC breakout would occur after the 2024 #Bitcoin Halving
It would also tie in with #BTC's general trend reversal which occurs in a typical Candle 4 in the Four Year Cycle
#Crypto #Litecoin
17.
Overall, the $LTC analysis in this thread suggests that #LTC is forming a Macro Wedge
Lower High resistance denotes Macro Downtrend
Higher Low denotes support on the Post-Halving retrace
Price compression will occur
Compression precedes volatility
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
18.
Historically $LTC rallies more Post-Halving vs Pre-Halving
PostHalving 1 #LTC rallied +15330% in 853 days
PostHalving 2 rallied +1562% in 639 days
Each PH rally made new All Time Highs
History suggests LTC may make new ATHs 400+ days Post-Halving 2023
#Crypto #Litecoin
19.
Overall, here is a list of all key $LTC Halving Principles:
• #LTC rallies Pre-Halving
• Local top months Pre-Halving
• Strong retrace after local top
• Post-Halving consolidation in Accumulation Range
• Strong Post-Halving rally to new ATHs
#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
20.
I regularly share this type of level-headed, unbiased analysis in the Rekt Capital Newsletter
If you liked this thread - you'll love the newsletter
Feel free to sign up for regular cutting-edge insights on #BTC and Altcoins:
rektcapital.substack.com
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.