Thread by @rektcapital

The Litecoin Halving is scheduled for August 2023

What historical price tendencies does $LTC showcase prior to its Halving and after its Halving?

A thread...

#BTC #LTC #Crypto #Litecoin

1.

$LTC tends to rally quite strongly prior to its Halving

Prior to Halving 1, #LTC bottomed 122 days and rallied +820%

Prior to Halving 2, LTC bottomed 243 days and rallied +550%

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

2.

On the other hand, how much does $LTC rally AFTER its Halving?

After Halving 1, #LTC rallied +14200%

After Halving 2, LTC rallied +1574%

Therefore, a key historical tendency emerges:

• LTC tends to rally more post-Halving compared to pre-Halving

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

3.

Let's focus on the $LTC Pre-Halving rally

While #LTC rallies strongly prior to the Halving...

LTC sharply and deeply retraces immediately after the Halving

LTC retraced -73% in the 578 days Post-Halving 1

LTC retraced -83% in the 458 days Post-Halving 2

#Crypto #Litecoin

4.

For that reason it's important to understand when a $LTC Pre-Halving rally tends to top

#LTC tends to top out just before the Halving

LTC topped 31 days Pre-Halving 1

LTC topped 61 days Pre-Halving 2

Could LTC top 92 days Pre-Halving 3 in May 2023?

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5.

But what if the Pre-Halving top isn't occurring 30 days earlier prior to each $LTC Halving? (i.e. 30>60>90 days)

What if instead it is occurring in doubling fashion (30>60>120)?

If that were to be the case, a #LTC Pre-Halving top would occur in April 2023

#Crypto #Litecoin

6.

What's also interesting is how long these Pre-Halving $LTC rallies last in terms of time

From bottom to top, the #LTC Pre-Halving 1 rally lasted ~90 days

The LTC Pre-Halving 2 rally lasted twice that amount at ~180 days

Is there a pattern here?

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

7.

It looks like $LTC Pre-Halving rallies may be lengthening in time

If this upcoming #LTC Pre-Halving rally lasts twice as long as the previous PH rally, then this rally will last ~365 days

Which finds confluence with a May 2023 top

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

8.

There is confluence for an early/mid-Q2 $LTC Pre-Halving top

But how much could #LTC rally ahead of its August 2023 Halving?

Pre-Halving return may be declining

But is it declining by +269% each time?

If so LTC could rally up to +285% before August 2023

#Crypto #Litecoin

9

Such a rally would mean that $LTC would reach a major resistance (red)

Red is where the Pre-Halving 2019 rally topped

#LTC also briefly held support there after its 2021 Bull Market peak to form the Macro Downtrend (confluent resistance with red area)

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

10.

Once $LTC forms its Pre-Halving top...

#LTC tends to strongly retrace (min. -75%)

And when that correction ends, LTC tends to form a new Accumulation Range

Post-Halving 1, #Litecoin formed an Ascending Triangle

Post-Halving 2, LTC formed a normal sideways range

#Crypto

11.

Interestingly, these Post-Halving $LTC ranges develop at a Higher Low (orange) compared to where #LTC bottomed prior to the Halving.

So what implications could that have for LTC’s Post-Halving retracement?

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

12.

If $LTC were to perform its Pre-Halving top at the red resistance & form a Higher Low relative to the Pre-Halving low…

Then the #LTC Post-Halving retracement would be ~-60%

But history suggests this retrace should be deeper than that (min. -73%)

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

13.

How can we reconcile this?

If a -73% to -78% Post-Halving retrace were to occur, then $LTC would still hold a Higher Low (orange)

A -73% #LTC retrace would be above 2022 Pre-Halving low

A -78% retrace would go below 2022 low but still respect Higher Low

#Crypto #Litecoin

14.

Such a $LTC Post-Halving retrace would create a new Post-Halving Accumulation Range (black)

Historically, such #LTC Ranges have been ~72%-77% wide

Key to watch for deep Post-Halving retrace followed by long consolidation in an approx 70%-wide Range

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

15.

When would $LTC breakout into a Post-Halving rally?

Historically, #LTC has consolidated in a Post-Halving Range for 458-578 days before breakout

If consolidation time is constantly declining by ~120 days then it could take a year for LTC to breakout

#Crypto #Litecoin

16.

This would coincide with a July 2024 $LTC breakout

This would make sense as this #LTC breakout would occur after the 2024 #Bitcoin Halving

It would also tie in with #BTC's general trend reversal which occurs in a typical Candle 4 in the Four Year Cycle

#Crypto #Litecoin

17.

Overall, the $LTC analysis in this thread suggests that #LTC is forming a Macro Wedge

Lower High resistance denotes Macro Downtrend

Higher Low denotes support on the Post-Halving retrace

Price compression will occur

Compression precedes volatility

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

18.

Historically $LTC rallies more Post-Halving vs Pre-Halving

PostHalving 1 #LTC rallied +15330% in 853 days

PostHalving 2 rallied +1562% in 639 days

Each PH rally made new All Time Highs

History suggests LTC may make new ATHs 400+ days Post-Halving 2023

#Crypto #Litecoin

19.

Overall, here is a list of all key $LTC Halving Principles:

• #LTC rallies Pre-Halving

• Local top months Pre-Halving

• Strong retrace after local top

• Post-Halving consolidation in Accumulation Range

• Strong Post-Halving rally to new ATHs

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin

20.

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