Thread by @TheStudyofWar

UK, French, & German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership & could reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms. isw.pub/UkrWar022523

2/ @WSJ reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that it will provide advanced military equipment, arms, & ammo to #Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine... wsj.com/articles/natos…

3/ ...and falling short of #Ukraine’s aspirations for full #NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings #Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression.

4/ WSJ noted that these officials expressed reservations about the West’s ability to sustain a prolonged war effort, the high casualty count that Ukraine would sustain in a prolonged war, and Ukrainian forces’ ability to completely recapture long-occupied territories like Crimea.

5/ @WSJ contrasted these officials’ private reservations w/ US President Joe Biden’s public statements of support—which didn't mention peace negotiations—& w/ Central & Eastern European leaders’ concerns that premature peace negotiations would encourage further Russian aggression

6/ Vladimir #Putin has given no indication that he is willing to compromise on his stated maximalist goals, which include #Ukraine’s “neutrality” and demilitarization—as well as de facto regime change in #Kyiv, as @TheStudyofWar has consistently reported. isw.pub/UkrWar022523