I went to the Kermit Roosevelt lecture on Friday. US General Stephen Townsend, CG of Training & Doctrine Comd said: “Are there any reporters in the room?” Ambush set. I raised my hand. “I like to know where my targets are.” Ambush sprung. Good start, I like this guy.
2 main points. 1-Revanchist Russia and revisionist China are emerging threats testing world order. 2-Future op environment will be more lethal and a scale not seen in decades. Enemy aim is to Fix, Fracture and Frustrate. NATO "can no longer assume we have dominance in all areas"
On point 1. We are in a constant state of competition with our adversaries. China is creating islands in the SCS then militarizing them with AAAD. Russia is blurring lines between civ and mil, creating ambiguity. US & UK not competing so well today. “We need to step up our game"
On point 2, uses examples from his command of anti-Daesh ops in Iraq/Syria. “The first fires delivered were 1s and 0s.” Prep for weeks, execute for days. Will not work in future against a near-peer adversary. “Got to flip the timeline – plan for minutes to enable ops for days.”
Future war likely to be in urban areas. By 2030 2/3 world popn will be urbanized, 60 megacities (>10m). Hyperpopulated, literally unboundable. “We must prepare for a scale of destruction we have only read about in history books.”
Compared Mosul to Stalingrad: 9 months for 90k coalition forces to defeat 5k Daesh enemy. 7 days to take final 400m square last stand. Buildings over 4 storeys collapsed, but basement and ground floors perfectly intact.
Bunker busters couldn’t get through – the rubble laid like pancakes and the structure just wobbled a bit and absorbed the blast. Enemy secure and combat effective. He looked round for flame-throwers; no longer in current inventories.
Solution? Iraqi armoured bulldozer advanced to bury pockets of resistance. Squads on each side to drop suicide bombers trying to stop vehicle. Old school: low tech, brutal, sub-platoon level war. Are NATO members prepared for this type of fighting?
Gen Townsend said UK & US had our differences, but have always stood together when it really mattered. We have a “strong sense of family and common set of values.” I really hope so.
