Gregory Waters Profile picture
Jun 17, 2018 21 tweets 15 min read Read on X
New thread on interesting SAA & Republican Guard facts/anecdotes I’m finding for an upcoming report. Mostly stuff from earlier in the war.
Video shows #Chechen foreign fighters in Ballermoun, Aleppo on March 17, 2014

On 3/21 rebels here killed Maj General Samea Abbas, head of the 102nd Regiment RG. On 3/25 they killed Brig General Qasi Mohammad, commander of the 415th Battalion of the 102nd.
Seems the 415th Battalion was destroyed in this battle as I can’t find any credible references to it after Qasi’s death. 102nd remained in #Aleppo until late 2017 (when deployment reports end).
Brig Gen Mohammad Nayouf took command of the 102nd by 10/14/2014. He commanded the regiment in #Aleppo until 11/14/2017 when he took command of the 105th Brigade RG and oversaw their operations in #Harasta, #EastGhouta, & #SouthDamascus (pics from S Damascus & Aleppo). ImageImage
I reported a story on Feb 28 of the 1421st RG Battalion that was ambushed in Zariqiyah, #EastGhouta and lost 70 men. The initial FB post put blame on the supporting units, not Lt Col Mustafa Suleiman.
However, the regime blamed Suleiman & arrested him shortly after the failed attack. Suleiman (from Baniyas) had been promoted on Jan 2 (pic 1) & had already received multiple medals “due to his honor & courage” (pic 2 from Feb 2017) pic 3 is calling for his release from jail. ImageImageImage
One site claims Suleiman was executed for his “treason” (again, he was accused of botching an attack that some sources claimed was the fault of other units). Article also claims Suleiman took part in the Baba Amr attack (in which govt killed Marie Colvin)
bit.ly/2K1s45k
After Suleiman, Major Basil alGhush took command of the 1421st. Basil commanded an RG unit besieged during the March 2017 Jobar attack& “gained the confidence of” #Assad & RG Commander Maj Gen Talal Makhlouf (pic 1). Basil personally greeted Assad on the Ghouta frontlines (pic 2) ImageImage
Maj Basil later joined a #Douma operations room alongside Liwa Abu Fadhal Abbas commander Maher Ajeeb (pic 1, center) and Maj Khalid Ghassan Ali (pic 1, left), commander of the 105th RG Brigade’s 358th Battalion. Maj Ali also met #Assad during hit Ghouta visit (pic 2). ImageImage
Maj Ali (105th RG, 358th Battalion) is apparently still operating alongside Liwa Abu Fadhal Abbas commander Maher Ajeeb. Pictured on June 5 (bottom right pic, raised arm) alongside Ajeeb overseeing #Quneitra front lines.
1/ Thread on the history of Maj General Zaid Ali Salah of reef #Jableh, #Latakia (pictured below), the current Syrian commander of the 5th Assault Corps, whose promotion was announced on January 22, 2018 (pic 2). ImageImage
2/ Zaid began the war as the commander of the 10th Division’s 62nd Brigade fighting in South #Damascus, including during the Battle of #Zabadani in 2015. On Jan 28, 2016 newly selected RG commander Talal Makhlouf appointed Zaid as his deputy commander of the Republican Guard. Image
3/ In May 2016, Zaid was appointed head of all #Aleppo RG units & within 2 months was credited with the govt victories in Ballermoun, Khalidiya, Castillo Road & Bani Zaid in #Aleppo (pic 1) Zaid replaced Maj Gen Adib Mohammad, who in Aug 2016 was removed from all military duties. Image
4/ On August 8, 2016 Zaid was promoted to the head of Political & Mil Security in #Aleppo & remained Talal Makhlouf’s deputy commander (pic 1). Sometime in October 2017 it appears that Zaid’s 2nd in command, Brig Gen Malik Alia (pic 2, right), took over his position. ImageImage
5/ Malik had been shadowing Zaid for over a year, serving 1st as his deputy in each new position before succeeding Zaid each time he was promoted. Ex: Pic 1 shows Malik as the newly promoted Commander of #Aleppo RG alongside 102nd RG commander Mohammad Nayouf on Aug 15, 2016. Image
6/ On Jan 22, 2017, Zaid was again promoted, this time to head the new 30th RG Div which would unite all #Aleppo RG & Pol/Mil security units under one command (Zaid remained head of Pol & Mil security). Again, Malik became his Chief of Staff. Image
7/ In Sept 2017, Zaid announced that draft dodgers had one month to join the 30th Div & be forgiven (pic 1). One man surrendered himself to the 30th but was instead transferred to the 83rd Battalion in #Harasta & wounded during the rebel offensive (pic 2). ImageImage
8/ In Nov 2017 Brig Gen Malik replaced Zaid as commander of the 30th Div. It’s not clear what, if any, new position Zaid took. In December he was pictured touring #abukamal #DeirEzZor w/ DeZ #NDF commander Firas al-Jaham (right) & Security Branch head Brig Jamal Razouk (center). Image
9/ Finally, on January 22, 2018, Maj Gen Zaid was announced as the new Syrian commander of the 5th Assault Corps (the Russian-backed unit created in late 2016) making appearances in #Hama (pic 1) and #EastGhouta (pic 2). ImageImage
10/10 Zaid rose rapidly through the SAA likely due to his personal standing w/ Talal Makhlouf. Zaid was THE man in Aleppo, meeting w/ Defense Minister (pic1) Russian Lt Gen & Suheil Hassan (pic2) heads of Liwa al-Quds & Liwa al-Baqir (pic3) & Desert Hawks’ Mohammad Jaber (pic4). ImageImageImageImage
Maj Gen Zaid Salah (current commander of the 5th Corps) has been appointed head of #Idlib Security Committee in a sign of the regime's insistence on capturing all of the province (see above thread for bio of Zaid, he is very important) Image

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More from @GregoryPWaters

Nov 1, 2021
Lots of hype for an imminent Turkish offensive in NES that seems largely divorced from reality. Reminds me of the cycles of "new Idlib operation" that are based on flimsy evidence.

Struggle to see why this would happen after yesterday's at least not-negative Biden/Erdogan summit
From the Turkish perspective, their big complaint has been the PKK commanders embedded in NES and they seem quite content with their recent policy of droning these commanders. Meanwhile their military is stretched thin with overseas deployments right now
Erdogan is also dealing with an economic crisis amid a surging opposition that is increasingly vocal in their opposition to Syria ops. It isn't like past years where he can use an offensive to "distract" voters. An op now with dead TSK would likely only weaken him in the polls
Read 11 tweets
Sep 20, 2021
This horrible article is a great example of "analysts" manipulating "data" to fit a policy proposal and narrative they decided upon before researching.
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
The moment you rely on ACLED for Syria your evidence is worthless. There were *at least* 248 anti-regime attacks this year, the vast majority targeting regime and allies. Even when ACLED under-counts attacks it absurdly inflates casualty numbers (no numbers in pic 2 are right)
These pieces by people who don't actually follow the central Syria insurgency continue to ignore the major changes that have occurred since it became "mainstream" late last year. Spring & Summer saw significant reductions to ISIS capabilities that are only just now being reversed
Read 6 tweets
Oct 13, 2019
Reports that #Russia & #Damascus will take #Manbij

Almost certainly confirmed & is easy enough, Russian-trained & equipped #SAA units have been stations just outside Manbij for almost a year now
#1st_Division also sent some reinforcements to #Qamishlo airport yesterday. Not originally planning for today's events but they're there now.
It's important to recognize that #Assad does not have the resources to govern the territory of #Rojava on his own. The #SAA is stretched thin enough dealing with an insurgency in #Daraa & keeping pressure on #Idlib & there are near daily #ISIS attacks in central #Syria...
Read 4 tweets
Oct 9, 2019
Almost daily #ISIS raids in central Syria now.

Three days ago Hani Hassan disappeared somewhere between #DeirEzZor & #Bukamal.

Hani was a member of the #SAA's 17th Division, 10th Reserve Regiment & comes from the largely Alawite village of Na'arah #Homs
Image
Member of the 137th Artillery Regiment (claimed 17th Division although the unit is historically 7th Division) killed in Harbisha #DeirEzzor just east of #Sukhna #Homs wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=3… Image
Reports of clashes between #SAA & #ISIS in central #Syria northeast of #Sukhna #Homs as govt forces intercepted an ISIS convoy (loyalist claim) Image
Read 376 tweets

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