Thread by @atatimelikethis

A thread on the problems of No Deal and its friends WTO and FTA.

I'll be neutral, simple and logical and to avoid fake news and stay objective, I'll quote data.

Brexit often skips the awkward details to sell a dream. I don't want to do that so call me if I miss stuff.

Definitions.

No Deal and WTO - same thing. One is the plan, the other is the result. In other words crashing out of the EU with nothing agreed and relying on "WTO" terms.

The Free Trade Arrangement assumes no tarrifs on either side and otherwise no agreeement crashing out.

Many areas are so complicated that it's hard to simplify. Trade, for example, is about 100 issues, not one.

So I'll do the simple stuff then add more in answer to questions.

Also many No deal problems could be solved. If you had 15 years...and a plan

Let's get going...

NDP1 (No DEAL Problem 1)

No Deal attempts to solve Brexit by flouncing out of EU with no plan

It ignores or brushes over all the other things the EU does for us, regulates, oversees or supports.

Those things need solving too. So No Deal doesnt solve for no plan or no time.

NDP2

Doesn't solve trade problems. It creates them. Leaving with No Deal means we have to replicate EU trade deals with Non EU. There are 50 of these, so that's 250 years of negotiating time ahead of us.

How many do you think we can do in parallel?

fullfact.org/europe/how-man…

NDP3

No Deal actually means no say.

Unless you don't want to trade at all with the EU, you have to comply with their regulations to export to them.

So WTO rules means you pay more to trade with the EU whilst complying with everything you just said you didn't do a deal on.

NDP4

No Deal is actually a Brexit Tax on food.

The UK imports 25% of its food from the EU and 40% of its fruit and veg.

Those things are going to get expensive if they come with tariffs or air freight costs from America.

And that's if you don't mind things chlorine washed!

NDP5
No to Deal is Yes to Lost Jobs

If tariffs are larger than profits you either have to stop making something, or you have to find new buyers, or you have to move production to Europe.

All this takes time and costs jobs, no matter how clever you are at planning

And we're not

NDP6

We need them more than they need us.

Many leavers point to a goods trade deficit with the EU. But we have a services trade SURPLUS with the EU. No deal means loss of services passporting and that will cause complete and total chaos.

These words are not exaggerated.

NDNP7

So. You're a pensioner. You retired to Spain, but you have a UK pension.

What happens to you in no deal?

Noone knows. There's no deal and no plan.

Seems to be you need to be pretty dismissive about British Pensioners abroad to support no deal.

NDP8

Cancer. That word noone wants to talk about.

No Deal means walking out without a way to import isotopes used to diagnose cancer because No Deal means no Euratom.

Could that be solved?

Yes.

Does no deal solve it.
Absolutely not.

NDP9

While we're on Euratom let's talk Electricity. Did you think about how much of our power comes from connections to Europe or imports of Uranium through Euratom

25% cut do to hospitals, heating, fridges, air con, schools?

Can it be solved? Yes. But not with no deal no plan

NDP10
Some Brexiters hand wave over all this with a FTA. A globalist dream of completely free trade, no tarrifs.

Unfortunately because they don't solve Ireland it's a fiction. The EU will never agree to free trade with a dodgy inky fools and horses back door through ireland

NDP11
Let's look at only fools and horses. No standards on trade and no customs checks.

What's to stop us importing chlorinated chicken and selling it through Ireland?

JRM says the EU will create that border. He's right. They'll have to. And it'll be our fault.

NDP12

Let's talk about Ireland. Leavers say its complicated. But that's just brushing over a simple problem

We had terrorism for over 100 years. It achieved a cease fire and one thing that was important was no border.

No border no checks.

Does no deal solve that?

Again not

NDP13

Extending the previous point. The only way to "solve" Ireland is to get rid of the Good Friday Agreement

Some extreme No Deal fanatics want that

Can you imagine how little you'd need to care about the UK to suggest this?

No Deal has no solutions

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/vauxhall…

NDP14

No Deal solves borders and immigration right?

No it creates utter and complete fricking chaos. And those words are understated.

There are 50-60 million visits abroad by UK nationals. About 60% to Europe. Can you just imagine No Deal on that

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

NDP 15

Brexiters like to say that with No Deal we can avoid paying the EU the £40B we owe.

Legally they may be right.

But they skip over the problem that we need trade deals. Lots of them.

If you just robbed someone in the street do you think the witnesses will trust you?

NDP16

Should we talk about Planes now?
No Dealers like to joke that this is exaggeration. It's not.

With no deal they stop flying to and from or over European Airspace until the mess is sorted out.

So no deal is actually do a deal after lots of mess.

standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-air…

NDP17

Luckily you won't have to worry about getting no health care since you'll be stuck in the airport.

One of the earliest things the EU did for us was assure you'd get treated under NHS terms in Europe.

No Deal. No treatment. Best watch those broken arms on holiday

NDP18

Anyone you know diabetic? Or need specialist health care? Anything that comes from Europe goes away under no deal.

Yes it could be sorted out. And maybe it would be. But for period of time it's no drug imports or big costs.

How many people dying is worth it for No Deal?

NDP19

I guess the average Leaver doesn't care about scientific collaboration in Universities. Seems obscure.

Unfortunately if you're gonna be a stand alone "independent" country, you need a strong science base.

No Deal doesnt solve for any scientic collaboration across the EU.

NDP20

How about driving abroad. Do you expect your British Driving Licence to be valid when your hire a car on holiday in the EU?

No Deal. No Driving.
Like everything else it needs a negotiation.

Seems almost immature not to think about this.

NDP20

Have you go used to using your mobile phone abroad without all those roaming charges?

Another thing that goes out the window with No Deal.

Probably don't want to be on a call on Brexit day...or for that matter abroad at all. It'll be chaos.

NDP21

The same problem applies to all those pesky credit card charges you used to get across Europe.

Those were all banned across the EU. With no deal that also all goes away.

Unless you negotiate and have a plan

NDP22

There are so many of these little cross border problems I could do 100 tweets on the entertainment alonr

No Netflix, no broadcasting imports, loss of orchestras, British Cinema.

Maybe they are trivial. But it seems so stupid when it doesn't need to be no deal

NDP23
Do you like your football?

If you're the sort of Leaver who thinks British Clubs should only have British Players, you'll welcome Brexit.

For many the Premier League has been immeasurably improved by European talent.

Why kill it with no deal?

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

NDP24
How about security and terrorism. Do you think we need cooperation across the EU on those?

Would the EU do a deal on those after Brexit? Sure they would.

Does No Deal solve that? No

So how long do you want no cooperation? It takes just one bomb.

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

Apparently people don't understand the context of this. To do so you need to understand the role of Euratom.

See attached including the full report.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eur…

Such a good one expanding on this point that I had to link it.

https://twitter.com/IncompetentMay/status/1021883580883116036?s=19

I got bored with being trolled on this by a number of leavers who don't want to believe the data so here's the Defra report on the 25% total food and the 40% fruit and veg.

Basically in fruit and veg we're screwed in a no deal scenario.

if you got through all this and you still think the UK will be fine under No Deal WTO terms it may either amuse or horrify you to know even that we've messed up.

The attached is for the geeks amongst you.

For everyone else Frazer has a good summary.

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1023198937925263365?s=19