1/ in 2008, historian Mary Hershberger re-appraised John McCain's statement that "I’m an old Navy pilot. I know when a crisis calls for all hands on deck" in connection with 1967 catastrophe on USS Forrestal in which 134 dead/missing and 161+ injured. truthdig.com/report/item/20…
2/ catastrophic fire and explosion of multiple bombs resulted from concatenation of events described in official report jag.navy.mil/library/invest…. McCain was in jet at epicenter, but luckily managed to walk away unscathed, while everyone around him perished or seriously injured.
3/ over the years, there have been rumors, that McCain, then a reckless flyboy (more recently merely reckless), precipitated incident through "wet-start" of jet engine. While his safety motto was "to hell with checklist", he was cleared of fault. But proven conduct troubling.
4/ while enlisted men were dying in the fight against fire and explosions on deck, McCain reported by Hershberger to have gone to pilot's ready room and watched fire on a television monitor.
5/ next day McCain commended heroism of enlisted men: "we're professional military men and I suppose it's our war. And yet here were enlisted men who earn $150 a month and work 18 to 20 hours a day...and certainly would have survived had they not stayed to help pilots fight fire"
6/ on day after the holocaust, only "hours after", McCain recalled their heroism to NYT reporter from comfort of villa in Saigon graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/flash…
7/ three months later, NYT reporter RW Apple recalled McCain "sipping scotch" with friends in Saigon on day after Forrestal holocaust graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/flash…
8/ Hershberger reported that, while fellow sailors and airmen were wounded and dying, McCain, the admiral's son, apparently without naval permission, hopped on the NYT reporter's helicopter and decamped for "some welcome R&R" in Saigon, thus missing funeral for fallen.
9/ McCain's lack of interest in the funeral of his fallen comrades might be considered as US thinks about how to commemorate his death
10/ McCain then hared off to London, where his father, the admiral, was stationed. Then, while his injured shipmates recuperated slowly, mourning the dead, McCain, still presumably on active service, went to the French Riviera where he idled nights away gambling.
11/ Hershberger, a reputable journalist, had trouble publishing her 2008 story in major outlets. John Dean, in contemporary article, supreme.findlaw.com/legal-commenta… endorsed Hershberger's credibility. In interview, many further McCain myths punctured.
12/ McCain grew up in Washington DC, where he attended elite schools. He was not an "outsider". He grew up in the swamp as child of prominent admiral.
14/ and yet, only 10 years later, McCain is venerated by US media as some sort of modern saint - perhaps the most recent and one of the most bizarre manifestations of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
15/ an editorial today thetimes-tribune.com/opinion/mourni… praised McCain for "his old-fashioned civility in political battle". An odd statement given McCain's actual history.
16/ a good example of rollingstone.com/politics/polit… McCain's "civility" is this repugnant 1998 joke about teen-age Chelsea Clinton who, whatever one thinks of her now, didn't deserve such contumely from the odious McCain.
17/ RollingStone reported a 1992 incident in which the odious McCain screeched slurs at the wife whose fortune supported him for daring to mention that his hair was "getting a little thin on top".
18/ they recall another incident in which McCain, prone to temper tantrums since he was a child, threatened to go to blows with Sen. Grassley, who, unlike McCain, is a model of dignity, intelligence and decorum, but whose passing is unlikely to be nationally commemorated.
19/ McCain screamed at young campaign aide who failed to set up podium to conceal McCain's shortness.
20/ in 2008, even Republican senators were seriously worried about the volatile and crazed McCain
21/ McCain recklessly promoted war in Iraq, long before Bush put it on the table. He deserves extra share of blame for subsequent morass for US.
22/ in the cause of Middle Eastern destruction, McCain promoted false stories of connection between Saddam Hussein and AlQaeda and false stories of Iraqi WMD.
23/ Rolling Stone rollingstone.com/politics/polit… list more fiascos up to 2008. McCain was just getting started: Libya, Syria, Yemen were still to come.
24/ James Bond famously said "Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is an enemy action." Similar rules applied to accidents of navy pilots. Yet before he was shot down and prior to Forrestal incident, McCain had downed three planes and had mayhem reputation
25/ other than insider pull, there was no reason for McCain to qualify as pilot. "His record at the U.S. Naval Academy was dismal. He piled up demerits for breaking the rules, and barely passed his schoolwork, graduating 894th in a class of 899." pythiapress.com/wartales/McCai…
26/ his first crash, blamed on a stalled engine, was into Gulf of Mexico. But investigators "started the recovered engine without any problem, and their report left open the possibility of pilot error." pythiapress.com/wartales/McCai…
27/ McCain's next downed airplane resulted from him flying into power lines in Spain while hot-dogging. Even tho second incident and downing power lines and airplane damage, pampered scion of admiral's family kept privileges.
28/ third crash: McCain commandeered navy plane to navy airplane to fly from Norfolk to Philadelphia to attend the Army-Navy football game. "the plane’s engine quit, he said, so he bailed out". Another airplane destroyed with impunity for pampered McCain
29/ McCain's 4th lost plane was in Forrestal incident where he was at center of holocaust, said to start after rocket hit McCain's plane. As discussed above, McCain abandoned firefighting to watch from lounge, than abandoned ship on reporter's helicopter for R&R in Saigon
30/ McCain was shot down while bombing Hanoi (his 5th incident), but his downing was, in considerable measure, due to his failure to carry out avoidance tactics - see excerpt - that were routinely carried out by more disciplined pilots i.e. all other pilots.
31/ McCain's own account of incident reveals his failure to "follow instructions in combat". McCain flew too low and was downed by anti-aircraft fire. McCain later lied about incident in his book and political campaigns: despite records, he claimed to have been downed by SAM.
In today's thread, I'm going to excavate some fascinating data on Omicron vs Delta from a CDC article. On its face, it's a garden variety sermon on vaccination cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…, but it contains other interesting data that wasnt discussed by the authors.
2/ bear with some preliminaries so that the precise point is understood when I get to it. The underlying database is 222772 visits ("encounters") by adults to 383 US emergency depts and urgent care clinics and 87904 hospitalizations at 259 hospitals from Aug 26/21 to Jan 5/22.
3/ Delta variant was predominant for most of period; Omicron rapidly became dominant in Dec and, by Jan, Omicron (rather than vaccination) had more or less eliminated Delta. While authors stratify results by "Delta" and "Omicron" periods, unfortunately they didnt quantify lengths
UK has published some relatively detailed data showing "unadjusted" rates of case infection of boosted vs unvax by age group. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… As context, Ontario SciTable only shows "adjusted" case rate purporting to show unvax rate as twice that of vax (2 or more doses)
2/ in ALL UK ages above 30, "unadjusted" case infection rate for triple-vax was HIGHER than among unvax. These results troubled UK authorities who printed unadjusted unvax rates in light gray, warning "comparing case rates ...should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness"
3/ the UK conclusion that "comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection" will come as news to Ontario SciTable and other authorities which regularly use such data in briefings
Quebec, in midst of draconian lockdown, (unlike Ontario) publishes new hospitalization data by age group, vax status msss.gouv.qc.ca/professionnels…
These are real counts, neither "normalized" relative to population nor "adjusted" by Ontario Science Table (or CDC). What do you notice?
2/ the most obvious observation about new hospitalizations is that (unsurprisingly) they are dominated by seniors and particularly over 80s - a group which is almost totally vaxxed.
3/ a secondary observation is that, in younger agegroups, number of new hospitalizations among unvax is pretty similar to number of new hospitalizations among vax, even though population of unvax is much smaller. This is consistent with primary messaging from governments.
in response to recent threads in which I showed actual vax and unvax case counts (not just per million), I've been abused by many commenters for my supposed failure to understand "data science 101" - that ONLY per million matters and only a moron would look at counts.
2/ I suspect that most of the abusive commenters are much younger than me and thus fail to consider why actual counts of fully-vax cases are of particular concern to someone who is fully vax and in a vulnerable age group (like me.)
3/ Nearly every 80+ and 70+ in Ontario was fully vax in Dec; yet there was unprecedented explosion of cases among seniors in mid-Dec. This is NOT due to almost non-existent unvax seniors. I wish it were. Yes, the few unvax are at more risk. But they arent causing senior caseload
the actual operating problem for Ontario govt - what puts pressure on hospitals and ICUs - is most likely the dramatic resurgence of cases among Ontario seniors, even including 99.99% fully-vax 80+s.
2/ it is well known that hospitalization and ICU rates for senior COVID cases are FAR higher than younger cohorts. In Toronto, where fine-grained data is available, 34% of cases among 80-90s are hospitalized; 25% of cases among 70-79s hospitalized, 5.8% into ICU
3/ in November, the priority of federal government and Science Table appears to have been vaccinating 5-11 year olds, as opposed to boosting seniors. "Younger" seniors (60s and 70s) mostly wer not eligible for boosters until December due to 6-month federal regulation.
today's Ontario cases are down almost 50% from Jan 1 max. Fully-vax cases accounted for ~85% of all cases; on a per million basis, fully vax cases still are higher than unvax cases. SciTable shows increasing cases, with "adjusted" unvax cases exceeding vax cases on per MM basis.
2/ here is today's NON-ICU hospitalizations, absolute and per million, by status. About 75% of non-ICU hospitalizations are full vax, flipping ratio that applied earlier in pandemic. Relative unvax rates remain higher.
3/ to estimate "excess" unvax non-ICU occupancy, I calculated what non-ICU numbers for unvax "should have been" if they had same relative occupancy as full-vax. It was ~100 extra for most of 2021, now ~150. This is 8% of present 1925 non-ICU occupancy.