today's Ontario cases are down almost 50% from Jan 1 max. Fully-vax cases accounted for ~85% of all cases; on a per million basis, fully vax cases still are higher than unvax cases. SciTable shows increasing cases, with "adjusted" unvax cases exceeding vax cases on per MM basis. 
2/ here is today's NON-ICU hospitalizations, absolute and per million, by status. About 75% of non-ICU hospitalizations are full vax, flipping ratio that applied earlier in pandemic. Relative unvax rates remain higher.
3/ to estimate "excess" unvax non-ICU occupancy, I calculated what non-ICU numbers for unvax "should have been" if they had same relative occupancy as full-vax. It was ~100 extra for most of 2021, now ~150. This is 8% of present 1925 non-ICU occupancy.
4/ the 8% excess from unvax contributes to the present record hospitalization levels, but, for policy, it is a secondary issue to the 92% arising from hospitalization of fully vax (and non-excess unvax).
5/ unfortunately, we don't have data thus far on impact of boosters. The omicron wave seems to be receding anyway, just as it did in South Africa. I doubt that relative contribution of boosters can be disentangled from "ordinary" decline of Gompertz curve tho people will try.
6/ here's a plot showing theoretical non-ICU occupancy by unvax if they had same occupancy rate as fully-vax. As noted above, lowering their rate would be nice, but 92% of problem arises from occupancy from fully vax since rise of Omicron.
7/ comparison of absolute and perMillion ICU occupancy from offical data vs SciTable. Fullvax ICU has increased dramatically in past 3 weeks and now exceeds unvax ICU for first time ever. Per million ICU occupancy by unvax much higher than vax, but ratio diminished rapidly in Dec
8/ the reason why ICU unvax occupancy is similar to September while relative ICU unvax has doubled is that unvax population is currently only half of unvax population in Sept. Thus relative increase in unvax did not result in absolute increase. Fully vax in ICU is new problem.
9/ from an analysis perspective, Science Table's "adjusted" unvax ICU occupancy per MM is about four times higher than unvax occupancy per MM reported by Ontario govt. Look at y-scale for similar shaped curves. SciTable adjustment minimizes contribution of fully vax to problem.
10/ the data up to December showed a profound benefit for vaccination in ICU data, but a disturbing emergence of fully vax in ICU in past few weeks and continuing substantial but reduced vax advantage (though probably much less than inflated SciTable calculation.)
11/ Pfizer CEO says that "fully vax" (as defined only a few weeks ago) are "only about 10% effective" against infection after 20 weeks. Because Canadian federal government regulations mandated 6 month interval before boost, reality was that nearly everyone was "unvax" in mid-Dec.
12/ this is consistent with observations that show as high (actually higher) case rates among fully-vax than among unvax starting in mid-December.
13/ morale: shouldn't Science Table and Public Health Canada have recommended boosters after 20 weeks, instead of 6 months? If boosters are the solution (and they might be), then leaving gap between 20 weeks and 6 months was a major error by Trudeau govt and Science Table
14/ on a more positive note, cases in South Africa are returning to pre-wave levels after short sharp casedemic. ICU lags and persists after wave declines, but much less than earlier level as are deaths.
15/ Science Table had argued that South African data contradicted claims that Omicron was less severe than earlier waves. Their characterization of SAfrican data in Gauteng was bogus. It was much less severe in SAfrica. (But still a wave.)
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