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Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

12 Jan

in response to recent threads in which I showed actual vax and unvax case counts (not just per million), I've been abused by many commenters for my supposed failure to understand "data science 101" - that ONLY per million matters and only a moron would look at counts.

2/ I suspect that most of the abusive commenters are much younger than me and thus fail to consider why actual counts of fully-vax cases are of particular concern to someone who is fully vax and in a vulnerable age group (like me.)

3/ Nearly every 80+ and 70+ in Ontario was fully vax in Dec; yet there was unprecedented explosion of cases among seniors in mid-Dec. This is NOT due to almost non-existent unvax seniors. I wish it were. Yes, the few unvax are at more risk. But they arent causing senior caseload

Read 15 tweets

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

10 Jan

today's Ontario cases are down almost 50% from Jan 1 max. Fully-vax cases accounted for ~85% of all cases; on a per million basis, fully vax cases still are higher than unvax cases. SciTable shows increasing cases, with "adjusted" unvax cases exceeding vax cases on per MM basis.

2/ here is today's NON-ICU hospitalizations, absolute and per million, by status. About 75% of non-ICU hospitalizations are full vax, flipping ratio that applied earlier in pandemic. Relative unvax rates remain higher.

3/ to estimate "excess" unvax non-ICU occupancy, I calculated what non-ICU numbers for unvax "should have been" if they had same relative occupancy as full-vax. It was ~100 extra for most of 2021, now ~150. This is 8% of present 1925 non-ICU occupancy.

Read 15 tweets

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

9 Jan

today's disinformation from Ontario Science Table. Local to me, but prob representative of science advice elsewhere. Left- ACTUAL hospitalization data by vax status. Right - hospitalization infographic from Science Table. Look at difference,

2/ up to mid-Dec, actual COVID hospitalizations were dominantly unvax, with only handful of full_vax. In last 3 weeks, reported hosp'ns exploded, with vast majority being two-plus vax. While unvax proportion is higher, "problem" arises from absolute count. Which is now mostly vax

3/ SciTable infographic implies that onslaught of hospitalizations is coming from unvax, with vax hospitalizations making only a minor contribution. No wonder politicians are demonizing unvax. While unvax "over-contribute", they are not driving the increase. Contrary to SciTable

Read 25 tweets

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

8 Jan

Here's a startling graph illustrating a point that people are beginning to talk about, but not visualizing well. And showing that concepts from 6 weeks ago aren't applying. Changes in ratio of new cases PER 100K of fully vax to unvax.

data is from Ontario, but it sounds like US experience is at least directionally similar. Vaccines were doing excellent (even if not perfect) job against cases, not just against ICU and hospitalization. In midDecember, with arrival of omicron, advantage disappeared, then reversed

the erosion of relative advantage of fully vax to unvax in respect to non-ICU hospitalization also began in mid-December, eroding rapidly. Opinions based on data prior to mid-December are no longer valid.

Read 19 tweets

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

7 Jan

To give perspective on difficulties for policy-makers, this graph shows the ratio of full vax non-ICU hospitalizations per MM to unvax non-ICU hospitalizations. Very very rapid erosion of advantage.

Nothing in SciTable Dec 16 briefing even hints at such a possibility.

SciTable and other perpetual government critics like to claim that if only govt had listened to them, none of this would have happened. Then Trudeau and others blame unvax for tribulations.

I'm pro-vax, but the problem that govt is facing right now isnt from the unvax, but from infections and hospitalizations among the fully vax as relative protection of fully vax has eroded.

Read 6 tweets

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

7 Jan

Three weeks ago, Ontario Science Table covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/upl… challenged claims of lower Omicron severity using data from Gauteng (population 15 MM) shown below.

SciTable are supposed to be non-partisan SCIENCE advisors.

here's a comparison of actual Gauteng data up to Dec 16 (github.com/dsfsi/covid19z…). The boxes on right correspond to the excerpts shown in the SciTable figure. In full context, data shows exactly the opposite of SciTable claim. ICU and deaths had risen FAR less than previous waves

if the entire data for pandemic had been shown, together with corresponding case data, Ontario politicians and policy-makers would probably have drawn logical conclusion: that data showed Omicron as less severe. But SciTable didn't show them the full story.

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