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Graham Atkins @GrahamTAtkins
, 12 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
.@Emilyishness, @lucy_campbell93, @blimeysimon, and @RichardatKF are all spot on. I crunched some numbers to see if £240m is a big number, and whether it could make a difference:
Assuming, as trailed, it will all be spent to address pressures this winter, it's not a big number compared to budgeted 2018/19 spending:
Compared to how much money the funding and policy changes announced during and after the last Spending Review are expected to generate: also no.
It's not all doom. Social care is under pressure, and that £240m will allow councils to provide more care. How much more?
.@NHSDigital estimates that an hour of private homecare costs on average £15.52. If the £240m were distributed equally, and spent entirely on homecare, each council could buy roughly 100,000 additional hours of care (digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…)
But if this is intended to relieve hospital pressures, it'll have to be spent on nursing and residential care too. A large number of lost bed days are attributable to lack of nursing and residential places, as well as lack of community care
£240m doesn't buy you as much nursing and residential care. The average cost of a nursing package is £638 per week; a residential care package £735 per week
Assuming councils buy care packages for a year, and the money was distributed equally, each council could buy either 48 nursing home placements or 41 residential placements.
The headline? £240m gets you some services: but it's still business-as-usual. Emergency cash injections like this make it hard for councils to plan and to invest-to-save, and hard for providers to invest in their staff and facilities
If you were a homecare provider struggling to recruit staff, would a one-off announcement of cash for councils for the winter *really* persuade you to invest in training for your staff?
If you were a local authority social care director, would this money be enough to persuade you to loosen your eligibility criteria for social care? No guarantee of improved Better Care Fund £££ after 2019/20...
TL;DR: @Lucy_campbell93 is right that this ducks the hard questions on funding. Brexit is eating up ministerial time but a cross-party inquiry is still the best way forward. Cash doesn't substitute for a strategy /FIN
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