1/ So, the SEC wussed out and is looking to finalize settlement with Musk and $TSLA. I am surprised the SEC is letting Musk get away with publicly casting doubt on the merits of the settlement. This is the path of least resistance and they are giving Musk special treatment.
2/ Putting myself in the SEC's shoes, I can certainly understand why it would have been awful to have to go to war with a national hero (I just vomited in my mouth), and it would have made the SEC look bad to back out of the settlement. (Think skin, indecisive, etc.)
3/ The next step in the case is the judge will review and consider the "joint" letter supporting the settlement. She can either approve the settlement, reject the settlement, or ask for more information from the parties (submissions, hearing, etc.).
4/ Federal courts almost always approve SEC settlements. They tend to give a lot of deference to the SEC. Very rarely (I would wildly guess less than 1 in 100 times), they push back on the SEC.
5/ My best guess is that it will take one to a few weeks for the judge to rule here. It depends a lot on what else the judge has on her docket and how busy she is. I now consider this settlement pretty much a done deal.
6/ I whiffed on predicting the SEC's behavior here. Looks like the Oct. 12 puts I bought will be quite profitable though. Thanks to the market meltdown for that. <end of thread>
