It's now 2 years since the Brexit vote, and we can tell what the Treasury's much-maligned short-term forecast got right. 1/ 
It was too negative on output. According to our estimate, the economy is 2.5% smaller than it would have been if Britain had voted to Remain. The Treasury's 'shock' scenario had it at 3.5%. cer.eu/insights/cost-…
It was a bit too negative about inflation. CPI peaked at 3.1% in 2017, which is about 1.5% higher than other advanced economies. It was far too negative about unemployment, underestimating the flexibility of the UK labour market.
Real wages have flatlined since the Brexit vote. In Germany, real wages have grown by around 3% over that period. The Treasury got that about right.
Sterling is down 9% from June 2016. Treasury said 10%.
Our estimate of the hit to GDP translates into extra borrowing of £26bn. (That's according to the government's own estimates of the fiscal hit from weaker GDP growth.) The same as the Treasury forecast.
Here's a podcast on our cost of Brexit estimate for those who don't want to move their eyeballs.
Here's a podcast on our cost of Brexit research cer.eu/media/cer-podc… 7/7
Here's a podcast on our cost of Brexit research cer.eu/media/cer-podc… 7/7
In short, The Treasury's 'shock' scenario got the path of GDP wrong - but not the cost. We have seen stagnation, not recession and bounceback. 8/7
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