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, 7 tweets, 2 min read
1. NI in single market for industrial goods and agri-food
2. NI de facto in EU customs union, with rebates for imported goods from UK that are bought by *consumers* in NI (with supply chain checks to be settled later)
(Thread)
3. Consent by majority of MLAs in 2024 = 4 more years of protocol. Consent by dual majority = 8 more years.
4. No alternative arrangements references
What does this mean? Time limit by consent is a win for the UK, I thought that wouldn't happen. But consent is structured so that it is likely to be granted, because it is by simple majority.
NI protocol is no longer a backstop, but it is the relationship between NI and the EU until at least 2024. No alternative arrangements until then.
In reality, NI is in the EU's customs union and SM for goods, so "Boris binned the backstop" doesn't really wash. I pointed out a few months ago that an NI-only backstop was negotiable. cer.eu/insights/boris…
(I did)
In summary, the trilemma lives. (Ends)
cer.eu/insights/there…
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John Springford
@JohnSpringford
Quick thread on my latest cost of Brexit estimate. The economy is 2.9% smaller than it would've been if the ref had gone the other way. 1/
The way the estimate works is this - an algorithm takes economic data from 2009 to the referendum from 22 countries. It selects those countries whose economies are most similar to Britain's. 2/
Those countries form the doppelganger.
Germany = 32% of the doppelganger
US = 28%
Australia = 17%
Iceland = 9%
Greece = 6%
Luxembourg and Iceland = 4% each
3/
Read 8 tweets
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John Springford
@JohnSpringford
My latest, thinking through how negotiations between the UK and EU would play out after no deal. cer.eu/insights/how-w… 1/
Any mitigation by the EU will be limited, and will require the UK to sign up to the main provisions of the withdrawal agreement. 2/
There are strict legal constraints about what the EU can offer the UK if it does sign up to those provisions. There could be a fairly quick deal on goods to unblock the Dover-Calais crossing. 3/
Read 5 tweets
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John Springford
@JohnSpringford
.@COdendahl and I have a new paper out on regional economic performance in the EU today. It includes an interactive map of regional productivity across the EU. cer.eu/publications/a…
The map shows big differences in regional productivity performance, especially in Germany, Italy and the UK. Compare the city of Manchester with Greater Manchester northwest. The city has a productivity level around that of Denmark. The north-western suburbs, Cyprus.
Why? The paper explains what has happened to regional economies in Europe over time. The big story is the decline of industry and the rise of services.
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Hello from Westminster and welcome to another monstrous day of Brexit.
Bercow has selected the Letwin amendment. It's on.
Will do full analysis and coverage when I can but having an internet nightmare.
Read 175 tweets
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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Ok, here, late in the day, is what @rtenews understands EU and UK negotiators have agreed as the revised backstop. Bear with me...I’ll break it down into Customs and Consent
1/ Customs: Northern Ireland is legally in the UK’s customs territory, but would it would apply the EU’s rules and procedures on tariffs.
2/ Northern Ireland would also be aligned with the rules of the single market for industrial goods and agri-food products, meaning both regulatory and customs checks and controls on the Irish Sea for goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
Read 20 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
UK freight forwarders/ brokers cannot recruit #customs specialists in sufficient numbers. The same way UK Gov cannot hire customs clerks, customs officials and the 500 border force officers Sajid Javid promised /1
First, as many incl @LeftPeggers pointed out, we don't have them in the UK (#customs is country specific, to a certain degree even within the EU, also not sure EU customs ppl would want to come work in the UK). /2
@LeftPeggers Second, customs is not something you can learn from a book as a lot of it requires direct experience. It's very different from other areas of tax where most rules are written down clearly (which still of course require direct experience)- customs rules are ambiguous at best /3
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
In case you missed it from last night - Labour's Brexit plan (Customs Union plus a bit of Single Market) is a formal version of the Conservative Brexit deal (backstop of Customs Union, plus NI follows SM and UK voluntarily aligns)
The difference of course is that under the Conservative Plan there is an aspiration for something different / looser in the future - but unless border technology / process solutions develop we won't get there. Hence also EU still won't offer backstop end date
At best the EU will offer enhanced cooperation on developing the technology / process solution. Meanwhile the desire to end Freedom of Movement from both Labour and Conservative is decisive on our future relations - means no formal say EEA style.
Read 4 tweets
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Canbury Press
@CanburyPress
Today we are tweeting the start of @iandunt's book about Brexit.

It imagines the shitshow of a no-deal Brexit. Which is due to happen in two months' time.

Unless we change course.
@IanDunt 30 March 2019
The clock strikes midnight and Britain is out of the European Union. The talks have fallen apart in mutual acrimony.
@IanDunt The UK has not secured continued membership of the single market. It doesn’t even have access. It is out of the customs union, too. It has no trade deals with Europe or anyone else. It is on its own.
Read 14 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
#EU leaders issue five paragraph statement in long-shot bid to change 100+ minds in #UK Parliament "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.
2. The European Council reiterates that it wishes to establish as close as possible a partnership
with the United Kingdom in the future. It stands ready to embark on preparations immediately
after signature of the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure that negotiations can start as
soon as
possible after the UK’s withdrawal.
3. The European Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to
prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland and ensure the integrity of the Single Market. It
is the Union’s firm determination to work
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