Some initial thoughts on the election result. In sum: Brexit will happen, but the economic risks will make it difficult for Johnson to bounce the country into an FTA. 1/n
This was no endorsement of Johnson’s FTA. He and Corbyn ensured there was no debate in the campaign about what it entailed. The EU will drive a hard bargain, with level playing field provisions and fishing rights being the demand for a quick and narrow agreement. 2/
There is little hope that customs in Northern Ireland or Dover will be ready by end 2020. In all likelihood, neither will the new immigration system. A quick FTA would also mean a hit to the economy. 3/
Johnson will either have to extend single market and customs union membership or spend the remainder of his term dealing with the fall-out. I suspect he’ll choose to extend, perhaps with a lengthy implementation period rather than a formal extension of the transition. 4/
The size of his majority – and his undoubted political triumph – will make that easier to manage: he will have the power of patronage and personal authority over the party. 5/5
6/5. Many UK and EU commentators have been wrong to believe the Conservative no deal bluff. They've ridden out the economic costs of Brexit so far because they have been a result of stagnation, not recession.
