People I respect often say that economic and political gravity will force the UK into a close relationship with the EU in time. I've made that point myself in the past. But I'm worried that this may not be true. 1/
This is the share of UK and German exports going to the EU since 1948.
The UK's decision to stay out of European integration was very costly, defying trade gravity - the rule that nearby, rich countries will be biggest trade partners. 2/
The UK's decision to stay out of European integration was very costly, defying trade gravity - the rule that nearby, rich countries will be biggest trade partners. 2/
The UK made a political choice to prioritise trade with empire and commonwealth over Europe in the post-war period - with a high price for living standards. 3/
And the last three years shows that the Conservative party and press can persuade voters to prioritise national identity over economic outcomes. 4/
We shall see. Demographics are in Remain's favour, with a majority of young people being pro-EU. And the power of the Tory press is waning, because few young people read it.
But we shouldn't assume that the gravity model of trade is an iron law of history. /ends
But we shouldn't assume that the gravity model of trade is an iron law of history. /ends
