Thread by @ClimateAudit

1/ Flynn 302 contains interest nugget showing total insolence of outgoing Obama admin to incoming administration. Obama notified Russia of expulsions on Dec 28, but not in press until Dec 29 ~2:15 pm Eastern (e.g. NYT nytimes.com/2016/12/29/us/…)

2/ On Dec 28, the day that Russia learned of expulsions, Kislyak sent text to Flynn asking to talk. Flynn, on holiday, didn't reply until next day. (Flynn had not been notified by Obama administration of its Dec 28 actions against Russia.)

3/ Flynn learned of Obama administration actions against Russia from media reports on afternoon of Dec 29.

4/ it sounds like Flynn's discussion with Kislyak was in the morning of Dec 28 (not stated by Mueller) since Flynn 302 says he was "unaware of the then-upcoming actions" [at the time that he was talking to Kislyak on Dec 29].

5/ this chronology indicates that Obama admin was so intent on ambushing Trump transition team that they didn't give Trump team any information. During Dec 29 call, Flynn's only information on expulsions appears to have been from Kislyak's side of story.

6/ people looking back can easily mis-apprehend events. One assumes that Flynn KNEW details of expulsions when he talked to Kislyak on Dec 29, but that does not appear to have been the case.

7/ watch the pea as Mueller Indictment recites chronology. It began with Obama's Dec 28 Executive Order. Mueller stated that the executive order "announced sanctions against Russia." But the order wasn't "announced" on Dec 28. It appears to have been announced ~2:15 pm Dec 29.

8/ Obama announcement made Dec 29 2:12 pm obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-offi…. It announced expulsion of 35 persona non grata, seizure of 2 Russian compounds and sanctions on nine Russian institutions and 4 individuals. If words are important, "sanctions" and expulsions may be distinguished

9/ Mueller indictment says tht Flynn called [Kushner] on Dec 29 prior to calling Kislyak. Transition team (reasonably) didn't want "escalation" as Obama admin laying down poison pills. If call prior to 2 pm (as appears likely), necessarily general only, as they didnt know details

10/ Mueller chronology implies that they knew contents of Obama executive order the previous day, but they didn't.

11/ Mueller indictment said that Flynn then called Kislyak and asked that they "not escalate the situation and only respond to the U.S. Sanctions in a reciprocal manner." As noted above, if before 2 pm, Flynn didn't know details, except as Kislyak may have told him.

12/ Flynn 302 say tht agents asked Flynn if discussed "expulsion of Russian diplomats or closing of Russian properties". Kislyak may have told him about these still unannounced actions. But Flynn didn't know about it, had no instructions, not likely that he free-lanced on this.

13/ Agents asked Flynn about discussion of the "expulsions". Flynn said that he "didn't remember. It wasn't 'Don't do anything'". Flynn said that he didn't know about Persona Non Grata (expulsions) until "in media" i.e. afternoon Dec 29.

14/ another nugget from Flynn 302 courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…: the word "sanctions" does NOT occur anywhere in 302. The 302 mentions "expulsions" and "closures", two legs of Obama exec order but didnt mention "sanctions", the technique used by Treasury.

15/ a reminder from Obama executive order obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-offi…: "sanctions" are not the same thing in the order as "expulsions" or "closures". Sanctions were what everyone was used to and expected. The expulsions and closures were unexpected and what FBI asked about.

16/ after clause on Kislyak-Flynn conversation, Mueller indictment stated that Flynn called [Kushner] to report on Kislyak call, including their "discussion of the U.S. Sanctions", though, as noted above, the word "sanctions" does not occur in the 302.

17/ my own interpretation (without huge confidence) is that Flynn, as instructed (and quite reasonably) asked Kislyak to let new admin look at things and, in a general sense, not to escalate, but expected some sore of reciprocal action. On specifics of expulsion + closures, Flynn

18/ would, without question, have wanted to see what Obama admin had done (rather than rely on Kislyak) and to get instructions before commenting to Kislyak on the issues of expulsion and closure which the FBI agents later asked him about.

19/ from the 302 - and this is counterintuitive and requires watching the pea very closely - it doesn't appear that FBI agents actually asked Flynn about "sanctions" (which they might not have distinguished from "expulsions" and "closures".)

20/ Dec 30: Putin saucily decided not to reciprocate with expulsions, but to invite US representatives in Moscow to a party (or similar). Kislyak, trying to build bridges with new admin, called Flynn to say that Russian restraint was due to Flynn's call. Flynn called transition.

21/ 302: agents asked Flynn about Kislyak's follow up call to say that Russia had decided not to escalate. In his best imitation of Hillary (or Comey), Flynn implausibly said that "it was possible but he didn't remember".

22/ Hillary and Comey each said they "did not remember" for hundreds of questions and FBI/DOJ just shrugged their shoulders. However, when Flynn (implausibly) said the same, FBI charged that he "falsely stated that he did not remember a follow-up conversation", one of 2 counts.

23/ on Jan 12, someone in Resistance cabal told David Ignatius that Flynn had talked to Kislyak on Dec 29 archive.is/IFfZl - a huge sensation since Steele Dossier had been published on Jan 10 following leaks from Comey-Brennan-Clapper cabal.

24/ Ignatius speculated on possible violation of Logan Act - a ludicrous conceit concocted by Sally Yates. Ignatius' mention of Logan Act is thus slight (but only slight) pointer towards DOJ or FBI origin of leak.

25/ on Jan 14, WH spox John Earnest didn't see any problem in principle, that "incoming national security adviser may have need to contact representative of foreign government" despite lurid headline: "WH: We Didn’t Coordinate Flynn Call to RussAmbassador
cnbc.com/2017/01/14/whi…

26/ Obama had obligation to notify incoming admin of expulsions or even to consult. But maybe Obama didn't notify Trump team because they planned to surveille how Russia contacted transition. Would untoward backchannel be revealed? In fact, Russia contacted Flynn, proper channel.