1) Some of my friends tell me, "But Pasquale, there's so much going on in 2019, and it's all so important, why in the world are you trying to talk about those crazy, home-brew charts you drew back in 2016? Get over it. We have more important things to focus on!"
2) And I say, "Well, you're probably right, but I believe in the power of analysis!" To which I get eye rolls. The power of analysis. It's not a natural phrase for most people. So, one of things I've realized I need to do is offer a little proof. Here I go!
3) During that season, coming in with no experience in political analysis, no connections or affiliations, and as a volunteer never paid a single dollar, I became the analyst in service to @GenFlynn. I'm told no outsider, amateur has ever quite done what I did. But...
4) Please don't take my word for it. Here, in the coming Tweets, is the recognition for my work that @GenFlynn wrote for me, himself:

"Having received every one of Pat’s analyses throughout the Trump campaign, I can attest to their tremendous value.
5) "At the core of his work, Pat created a new form of political data graphing which everyone – myself included – appreciated and found incredibly beneficial. The numerous insights he generated always made extraordinary sense and helped us improve on our strengths and...
6) "shore up our weaknesses. Pat’s keen analysis throughout the entire campaign, right up to election day itself, was not only extremely useful but relevant to our team’s decision making process. Not only was his analysis spot on accurate for months straight...
7) "it gave us moral support and encouragement during many a tough moment when we truly needed it. His has an incredibly rare ability. As a consumer of analyses during my over 33 year intelligence career...
8) "I had never seen anything like his exceptional accuracy over such an extended period of time. We won in a decisive way and there’s no question that Pat’s work helped us all during this very hard fought campaign to win back America's very heart and soul.
9) "While Pat is clearly a brilliant analyst, he is also a true American Patriot!"

End @GenFlynn's comment. I, myself, continue...
10) So why do I share, other than inflating my own somewhat well known, outsized ego? Allow me to share another current theme I hear. It goes,"President Trump has all in hand. Trust the plan. All will be well."

"Seriously," I respond?

"Seriously," I hear back.
11) Oh friends, #MAGA friends, it simply is not so. Even if it could be - and it can't - it is EXACTLY the worst possibly way to play the game (read that fight the war) of saving America. We must more than just fight for it, more than just win it, we must deserve it.
12) No matter what our friends on the left would have you believe America is no leader-led club. We're a bootstrap, do it yourself, build it from the ground up, distributed and disbursed people, and thank goodness we are. Many of us pine nostalgically for 40 acres and a mule.
13) It wasn't Congress or President Washington that made America great in the first place, it was our forefathers fighting against the grip of nature over their farmsteads. It was never the rail road barons who fought and won our wars, it was our down home boys sharp shooting.
14) So today, we must NOT, I say, we must not grow complacent in our great President's greatness. He needs and deserves us, and we must each do our part. We brings me back to little old me. My part is to analyze.
15) And to do that, I have all kinds of various tricks and traps and tools and methods. Ha! But of them all, my most beloved, and most powerful are simply drawn charts of carefully chosen data. They're not gorgeous (although I love them). But they are mighty.
16) Of the many favorites I have from 2016, this one takes the cake, I think. At least it does when I'm not looking at my other favorites. Check this one out, and note the date. More on that below...
16) If you want to tease out the meaning of the chart, it might help to review this so-famous story from back then!

17) My theory was simple. If the Access Hollywood tape was going to end Trump's campaign and shoe Clinton into the Oval Office, we needed to see his support fall, and we needed to see her resistance dissipate, if not disappear. The data showed the exact opposite, and...
18) By October 15, his support broke out above her falling resistance line. I know, it can be confusing. When resistance grows, the line drops. Strengthening resistance pushes your line down. Resistance to HRC grew after the tapes were released. DJT;s support strengthened.
19) Although I'd called for a Trump victory all along, that call was far more from my heart and hope than from the data...until October 15. On that day, I knew. I needed just a bit more confirmation, and remained jittery all the way to the end. But, my analysis was clear. Trump.
20) So what's happened since? Lots, as you all know. But, what I have not had is rich data that I believed in, so I haven't drawn another chart from November 8, 2016, till now. Yet, my analytical engine is not without fuel. There are many forms of data, not all of it chartable.
21) One source of, not data, but inspiration and theory, has been Saul Alinsky's work. I've read his main book, but also, everything else he published and as many of the conservative responses to his work as I could find. And?
22) And the picture is NOT pretty. Here's a simple example. Mueller and his eternal investigation. It follows Alinsky's principles of never letting up the pressure, and his greatest principle, the power is in the reaction. Mueller has kept us all reacting from day one.
23) Before I leave Alinsky for the moment, let me emphasize that if you care about #MAGAVictory2020, you owe it to the movement and yourself to read Alinsky's book for yourself. Do NOT let his dedication to Satan put you off. He knew what he was doing.
24) Alinsky knew that by employing that dedication, people on our side would not read his book, and the result is that his side uses the same tools to defeat us again and again, and Satan protected, we never learn the lesson. Read it.
25) Now let's return to @GenFlynn. Buy his book, Field of Fight. And go to Google, right now, and get his white paper, Fixing Intel. No, he has not given us the counter-Alinsky, but he leads the way right there. No kidding. And...
26) You'll find in his work what I call the Doctrine of Credibility. That's my name, but his concept. Here it is. Victory does NOT go to the good, or even the strong. Rather, it goes to the side PERSUADES the most people it is GOING TO WIN.

Let that sink in.
27) The single greatest instrument of victory has nothing to do with tactics or maneuvers, or man power or righteousness. The winning side is the one that persuades the most players - including your enemies and their supporters - that you're going to win.
28) More than any other, this doctrine explains the 2018 defeat in the House. Unlike 2016, the mounting predictions of Democrat victory had the force of persuasion, so we failed to show up where we should. But wait...wait...!
29) So many of my friends tell me, "But voter fraud! It wasn't a level playing field. We did not actually lose!" And after I finish rolling my own eyes impatiently I say, "Yes, we did lose, and no, it wasn't voter fraud that caused it. If we'd won by sufficient margins...
30) "If we'd won by sufficiently large enough margins, no voter fraud could have defrauded us of our victory. So, in this age, we can't just win a little. We have to win a lot. Even, overwhelmingly."
31) Which catches me up to today's analysis. If we allow complacency between now and November 2020, and if we demand that our President carry the entire burden himself, even if we don't lose (and I truly fear we will) we won't deserve our victory. But, allow me the risk of loss.
32) If you just allow that we might lose, then we get to ask, well, how might we address that threat? Do you see, that's a good, solid way to analyze. And I have an answer for your consideration. Votes. No seriously, votes. Let me explain.
33) Votes take place in states and precincts and who knows how many subdivisions (someone knows!) and districts. Wherever there is a voting area - and this is defined by a majority that carries itself forward - then we can measure that area and guess how many votes are needed.
34) That data in hand, we can even guess how large a margin is required for overwhelming, indisputable victory. Then, with that in hand, for each area, we look around and ask, "Okay, who's in? Anyone? Please? Who will lead?"
35) Lead? Yes. Simple. If, in your district, the majority goes the other way, you failed. Not Trump. Not your Senator, etc. You. You have to put your identity into it. More. You have to predict victory and then make sure you're right. That is leadership.
36) But let me make the same point a different way. In #MAGA, we need a new model of leadership. We need to disburse it far and wide, deep and broad. Think about a city block. How many voters are there? Who would knock on each neighbor's door and get the read for that block?
37) You get the idea, don't you? If we were to organize (I know, that's an Alinsky word and we're not supposed to use it on our side) all the way down, leaders at every level, and if our leaders took that kind of ownership, we'd have won our victory ourselves. That's the model.
38) Is it the only answer? Hell no. We have to learn how to raise funds. We have to become technology savvy. We have to open our arms and our conversations and learn to disagree, agreeably. Yet, we have to learn to NOT surrender! And so much more!!
39) Yet, we dare NOT leave this to the professionals, or to the LEADERS, you know, those who get paid to be politicians. Rather, we MUST embrace the volunteer path. There's no other way. We must build our own, organized, volunteer leadership.
40) But what about the professionals? And, you might ask, are you, Pasquale, promising to never charge for all your skills and never make money in politics? And with my mule and my 40 acres I scowl and pretend I have a drawl and say, "Hayell NO! Make yer offer!"
41) Be clear, I have not only NO problem with asking for money, any damned time I think it's the right thing to do, I urge fiercely that we have to learn, in #MAGA, how to put our money where our mouths and votes are. We have to learn the art. That is also an answer.
42) But it's not today's topic. Today, my analysis calls for a new leadership model amongst us lowly volunteers. That, and by all means, agree or disagree, and if you disagree, show me your analysis. I will listen and maybe convert. I'm really good at converting.
43) But the one think I hope you won't resist out of this analysis is the fact that we face risk. There is threat to the Senate. There is threat to the White House. And, if we lose, there is threat to America. I have to say all that another way...
44) Our loss of the House was a failure. We must analyze it. We must learn the lessons it offers. I say the lesson we need to learn centers on a new leadership model, as you've followed. But, I can be wrong. No problem. Let's take the failure seriously and explore other lessons.
45) But what we must NOT do is fail to call the failure by its name, and fail to...and please forgive the caps shouting...


Which is my real point. Hey, can I offer you another chart from 2016?

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