1/ I went through Mueller Report and compiled dates and persons of all interviews reported in footnotes so that I could sort by dates or by person/dates. (Why didn't Mueller provide appendix of ALL interviews?) Interesting to see how Mueller started off.
2/ Mueller's interviews (after Rosenstein) began with two anti-Trump Republican delegates (Rachel Hoff, Diana Denman) who had proposed bellicose amendment to platform on Ukraine. See Aug 2016: thedailybeast.com/trump-campaign…
3/ Trump campaign official JD Gordon suggested more moderate language, based (according to Gordon) on policies set out in candidate Trump's March 31 statement.
4/ while Mueller Report omits any discussion or assessment of important Steele report, it investigated minutiae of this incident, recalling JD Gordon at least two more times, third time in Feb 2019.
5/ idea of replacing phrase "armed assistance" with "appropriate assistance" appears to have been anathema not only to the two never-Trump hawkish delegates but also concerning to Mueller, Weissman and their posse. Mueller Report didn't show why this amendment was legal issue
6/ two early Mueller interviews were of employees of New Economic School, Moscow (Denis Klimentov; Y Weber) where Carter Page had made an invited speech on July 7, 2016. Y Weber is not listed in Appendix B Dramatis Personae, but is presumably related to Schlomo Weber, Rector of
7/ New Economic School, who had been responsible for invitation and who was interviewed on July 28, 2017. Events concerning Carter Page are on Mueller Report, 98-100. It's interesting that two Russians were interviewed on June 1, 2017 (Y Weber) and June 9, 2017 (Klimentov)
8/ Mueller's chronology conspicuously did not include the Carter Page meetings fabricated by Steele dossier (with Igor Sechin and Igor Diveykin) but it's shameful (and typical) that Mueller didn't firmly rebut the Steele fabrication.
9/ one new piece of information. Denis Klimentov tried to promote Carter Page visit to Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and to Press Secretary Peskov. Peskov replied that their specialists had strongly played down Page's significance and decided not to arrange Kremlin meeting
10/ think about this: as of approximately June 9, 2017 - within 3 weeks of Mueller being appointed - Mueller had contemporary document from Peskov, effectively rebutting Steele claim of secret meeting between Page and senior member of Presidential Administration at Kremlin
11/ nonetheless, on or about June 22, 2017, Rosenstein signed FISA rollover as did McCabe, without disclosing exculpatory information that Peskov had decided not to invite Page to Kremlin.
12/ there is nothing material on Carter Page in the Mueller Report (as indicated by interview dates in footnotes) subsequent to 2017. (This is true of other key figures as well.) The collusion narrative fell apart almost immediately.
13/ majority of interviews in first 45 days were about Comey's obstruction allegations. Between June 12-14, Mueller met with NSA (Director Rogers, Deputy Richard Ledgett); DNI (Director Coats, officials Michael Dempsey, Edward Gistaro, and ^ Culver); FBI chief of staff Rybicki.
14/ Mueller interviewed these officials (and CIA director Pompeo on June 28) about obstruction - see Mueller II, 55ff. News of these interviews was instantly leaked: WaPo June 14 washingtonpost.com/world/national… ; NBC nbcnews.com/politics/polit…
15/ these leaks were very damaging as, up to that point, Trump had been able to insist that he was not personally under investigation - based on multiple such assurances from Comey. This undermined that position.
16/ Trump, not unreasonably, interpreted this fresh round of leaks, this time involving Special Counsel Office, as a further attempt to undermine his ability to govern.
17/ in a separate thread, I'll look at the Comey-related obstruction charges that were in existence when these damaging leaks occurred: all were considered in Mueller report and none are substantive, notwithstanding Mueller's failure to report weaknesses of his friend Comey
18/ ThunderStrzok observed that Peskov email about Page may have been supplied to Mueller by Dmitri Klimentov in Nov 2018 rather than Denis Klimentov in June 2017 - see
It's work in progress, not as meticulous as I would normally do before posting. However, topic is obviously interesting and it should save work by others.
20/ I've collected this thread, adding some edits, at a new wordpress blog at which I'll collect some of these threads. See politicalaudit.home.blog/2019/04/22/mue…
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In today's thread, I'm going to excavate some fascinating data on Omicron vs Delta from a CDC article. On its face, it's a garden variety sermon on vaccination cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…, but it contains other interesting data that wasnt discussed by the authors.
2/ bear with some preliminaries so that the precise point is understood when I get to it. The underlying database is 222772 visits ("encounters") by adults to 383 US emergency depts and urgent care clinics and 87904 hospitalizations at 259 hospitals from Aug 26/21 to Jan 5/22.
3/ Delta variant was predominant for most of period; Omicron rapidly became dominant in Dec and, by Jan, Omicron (rather than vaccination) had more or less eliminated Delta. While authors stratify results by "Delta" and "Omicron" periods, unfortunately they didnt quantify lengths
UK has published some relatively detailed data showing "unadjusted" rates of case infection of boosted vs unvax by age group. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… As context, Ontario SciTable only shows "adjusted" case rate purporting to show unvax rate as twice that of vax (2 or more doses)
2/ in ALL UK ages above 30, "unadjusted" case infection rate for triple-vax was HIGHER than among unvax. These results troubled UK authorities who printed unadjusted unvax rates in light gray, warning "comparing case rates ...should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness"
3/ the UK conclusion that "comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection" will come as news to Ontario SciTable and other authorities which regularly use such data in briefings
Quebec, in midst of draconian lockdown, (unlike Ontario) publishes new hospitalization data by age group, vax status msss.gouv.qc.ca/professionnels…
These are real counts, neither "normalized" relative to population nor "adjusted" by Ontario Science Table (or CDC). What do you notice?
2/ the most obvious observation about new hospitalizations is that (unsurprisingly) they are dominated by seniors and particularly over 80s - a group which is almost totally vaxxed.
3/ a secondary observation is that, in younger agegroups, number of new hospitalizations among unvax is pretty similar to number of new hospitalizations among vax, even though population of unvax is much smaller. This is consistent with primary messaging from governments.
in response to recent threads in which I showed actual vax and unvax case counts (not just per million), I've been abused by many commenters for my supposed failure to understand "data science 101" - that ONLY per million matters and only a moron would look at counts.
2/ I suspect that most of the abusive commenters are much younger than me and thus fail to consider why actual counts of fully-vax cases are of particular concern to someone who is fully vax and in a vulnerable age group (like me.)
3/ Nearly every 80+ and 70+ in Ontario was fully vax in Dec; yet there was unprecedented explosion of cases among seniors in mid-Dec. This is NOT due to almost non-existent unvax seniors. I wish it were. Yes, the few unvax are at more risk. But they arent causing senior caseload
the actual operating problem for Ontario govt - what puts pressure on hospitals and ICUs - is most likely the dramatic resurgence of cases among Ontario seniors, even including 99.99% fully-vax 80+s.
2/ it is well known that hospitalization and ICU rates for senior COVID cases are FAR higher than younger cohorts. In Toronto, where fine-grained data is available, 34% of cases among 80-90s are hospitalized; 25% of cases among 70-79s hospitalized, 5.8% into ICU
3/ in November, the priority of federal government and Science Table appears to have been vaccinating 5-11 year olds, as opposed to boosting seniors. "Younger" seniors (60s and 70s) mostly wer not eligible for boosters until December due to 6-month federal regulation.
today's Ontario cases are down almost 50% from Jan 1 max. Fully-vax cases accounted for ~85% of all cases; on a per million basis, fully vax cases still are higher than unvax cases. SciTable shows increasing cases, with "adjusted" unvax cases exceeding vax cases on per MM basis.
2/ here is today's NON-ICU hospitalizations, absolute and per million, by status. About 75% of non-ICU hospitalizations are full vax, flipping ratio that applied earlier in pandemic. Relative unvax rates remain higher.
3/ to estimate "excess" unvax non-ICU occupancy, I calculated what non-ICU numbers for unvax "should have been" if they had same relative occupancy as full-vax. It was ~100 extra for most of 2021, now ~150. This is 8% of present 1925 non-ICU occupancy.