As I estimated tonight @WashInstitute piece about #Iran's potential steps washin.st/2VUhany, Iran is laying a roadmap for #EU to follow. 1st is accumulating excess nuclear material (heavy water, Uranium 3.67%). If by 60 days #EU won't take action, more steps to follow 1/7
Iran's demands are not tangible or doable, and put #EU in direct conflict with #US sanctions: fully implement sanctions relief (prob ref to INSTEX) and agree a solution for the excess nuclear material (#Iran's Majles national security commission chief hinted this on Friday) 2/7
If EU won't deliever, #Rouhani promised more steps to follow. These are prob articulated in his/Zarif's letter. 2nd step is related to the level of 3.67% enrichment (though this part isn't clear in his speech) and to stop the re-design of Arak. Most prob, more steps to come 3/7
Ultimately, #Iran threatened that if sanctions be snapbacked using the UN Security Council, Iran will retaliate. As I wrote tonight, in 2006, 2 days after the #IAEA referred its case to the UNSC, Tehran retaliated by halting implementation of the additional protocol 4/7
bottom line - #Iran set the clock for 60 days of deliberations by laying down a roadmap of unrealistic concessions for the #EU to follow. From Tehran’s perspective, this allows the regime to send a deterring msg, while retaining flexibility to actually implement its threats. 5/7
#Iran has been burned by failed brinkmanship strategies, so they will likely try to refrain from careless, uncalculated policies that might push #EU to join #US “maximum pressure” approach. question is whether it can keep a limited escalation from spiraling out of control 6/7
#Iran has learned in the past that escalation dynamics are dangerously unpredictable. And given how far away they are from realizing the demands from #EU, they could push themselves into a corner. Read more in my @WashInstitute analysis from tonight washin.st/2VUhany 7/7
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