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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A friend of mine said to me recently that he knew exactly how much cash his businesses generated but that he has no idea what his earnings are until his accountants tell him. Another said his dad felt the same way about his car dealership. Cash is a fact. Earnings are an opinion.
"The value of any business is determined by the cash inflows and outflows, discounted at an appropriate interest rate, that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset" John Williams

"The only unforgivable sin in business is to run out of cash" Harold Geneen
"Todd and Tedd are looking for things that they feel they understand what will be developed by that business between now and Judgement Day, in cash."

Not earnings. Cash money. Every person who runs a business knows CREAM (cash rules everything around me). 25iq.com/2016/01/02/a-d…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
This WSJ writer doesn't understand the difference between (1) Buffett using value as an analytical style and (2) value as a factor in creating an index fund. The first use of the word "value" has nothing to do with the second. google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.…
Buffett is miserable according to the WSJ author. This chart would indicate Berkshire is in a good place as the sixth largest company in the world.
The online WSJ version of the article completes the trifececta with a headline that claims the study about a factor in a index fund based on "ratios of book equity to market equity" indicates that that the Amazon investment by Berkshire was made during "a dangerous stretch."
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
I've been saying for many years that the rocket launch business isn't that big.

Shotwell: SpaceX has signed 22 launch deals over the last 14 months, despite a downturn in the market for commercial GRO satellites....we’re feeling a little pain right now on the commercial side"
US$ 3B SpaceX revenue a year at US$ 70M per launch on average would be ~43 launches a year. Yes, there other launchers and prices but assume all are all Falcon 9 and you get a sense of total addressable market. Total industry commercial launch now ~$6.2B breakingdefense.com/2019/05/usg-la…
"There were 114 total orbital launches in 2018. Of these, 93 were commercially procured, 15 involved space vehicles, and 6 were not commercially procured" sia.org/wp-content/upl…

Both Musk and Bezos must generate services revenues beyond launch to achieve their objectives.
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"SpaceX has “sufficient capital” to make Starlink operational but would potentially need to raise money if things go wrong with the multibillion-dollar endeavor, which he called “one of the hardest engineering projects I’ve ever seen done.” reuters.com/article/us-spa…
Money, rocket launches and payloads are cheaper now than in the 990s. Many tradeoffs are involved in going to lower orbits. Watching them "operationalize" will be fun.

There is a suplus of launch capacity. Businesses will send payloads up on a space available basis. Its go time
“We see this as a way for SpaceX to generate revenue that can be used to develop more and more advanced rockets and spaceships,” Musk said. “We believe we can use the revenue from Starlink to fund Starship [and get to Mars]." cnbc.com/2019/05/15/mus…
Read 3 tweets

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Chowkidar Raji 🇮🇳 🙏
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#Malala #MalalaFunds
Malala said, “I am ready to tell the world that Pakistan is a safe place and teams should go there and play cricket.”

Pakistan is so safe, why don't you return to Pakistan and continue your child education campaign in Pakistan ??
+ Making such claims of Pakistan's safety, calling Kashmir as "India occupied", & making statements sitting in safe havens of Birmingham and London suggest that you speak what ISI & COAS ask you to speak.

Pakistan is safe because being shot in the brain helps get Nobel #Malala
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Gloria Calderón Kellett
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Financial insecurity for artists: A THREAD. We, as artists, deal with a lot of insecurity. But the one I think we talk about least is financial insecurity. I think it’s because many of us are not taught how to properly take care of ourselves while pursuing a career in the arts.
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Alexandra Erin
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So here's a truth about self-publishing, since a learned correspondent of mine brought it up recently:

It does not remove the gatekeeping or obstacles to success, it merely relocates them.
The idea that self-publishing is "easier" than traditional publishing misses the fact that they are not a 1:1 reflection of them.

When you self-publish, you are at ~*about*~ the same point in your journey when you publish your work as you are when you submit in trad pub.
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@AltCyberCommand
After today's Twitter shitshow, America might need a direct reminder of an apparently hard-to-swallow fact: when you use social media services, you are the product. You are not the customer. An analytics team could tell you exactly how much cash your bickering generated today.
Slow-motion video, repeated seeking, and frame by frame analysis enhances perceived intent. That's on display here constantly. The human ability to eventually forget is also profoundly adaptive. Twitter saves everything. This is all well documented in peer-reviewed literature.
Outrage drives controversy which drives impressions which drives revenue. Some poorly parented high-schoolers acted like total assholes today. You may have spent a lot of your own time and energy litigating that on here. Twitter's CFO thanks you for your engagement.
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Western Mastery
@WesternMastery
The smarter one gets, the more they realize they don't know.
This is one reason I've added the "Tweets are not gospel" disclaimer.

Shit, I can give a lot of great advice. But not to everyone. I'd rather not seem like I'm trying to be an expert on everything. There are plenty of people who know way more than I do about many things.
But then again there's plenty of people who don't. Maybe I'm being too humble.

I think part of this is a maturation process. As humans, how much of the world's knowledge do we really know? A tiny, tiny fraction. We fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we do.
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Alan Cooper
@MrAlanCooper
The main reason why agile methods are popular is because managers think it means doing things faster. 1
Classic, industrial-age management likes things to go faster because that means things cost less. 2
Agile, of course, has nothing to do with going faster. It’s reason for existence is to do things better. 3
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