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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Everyone knows that you make up the negative yield with volume!

"Negative-yielding debt topped $13 trillion in June, having doubled since December, and now makes up around 25% of global debt. In Germany, 85% of the government bond market is under water." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Japan’s bond yields are too low to cover the cost of servicing the Japan Postal bank’s funds, a cost that S&P estimates at 0.57%." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
news.google.com/articles/CBMia… There is also about $600 billion of negative yielding corporate debt.
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More from @trengriffin see all

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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"After the S&P 500's nearly 19% gain this year, the benchmark index is now trading near its fair value relative to interest rates, profitability as well as price-to-book valuations" Goldman. google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc… The tooth fairy has been making the same price-to-book argument.
When I read something like this:

"Traders are fully pricing a quarter-point cut at the July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting."

I imagine the meeting where this is decided by the "traders" (under a buttonwood tree?) and wonder why "investors" aren't invited?
Many macro predictions that attempt to time changes in the stock market are eventually right exactly once in a row. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Focusing on when to buy is vastly easier than guessing about when to sell, especially if your focus is on a specific actual business.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ Insane Clown Posse Strategy: "Dump all equities and load up on derivatives. Hide out in short-term government bonds until the coming storm recedes. ... and yet be prepared to jump into risk-parity quant strategies if the market keeps grinding higher." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ Howard Marks Strategy: investors should calibrate their exposure to risk using: “a continuum from 0 to 100, with 0 being completely out of the market and 100 being completely in using aggressive techniques like investing with borrowed money.” google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
3/ Charlie Munger Strategy: "If you buy a few great companies [at an attractive price], then you can sit on your ass. That's a good thing. We're partial to putting out large amounts of money where we won't have to make another decision."
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Simba: "Why has our movie delivered over $500M in revenue to Disney so quickly?"

Mufasa: "Preferential attachment causes power law distributions that rule everything around the entertainment business."

Simba: "Like Rza says?"

Mufasa: "Just like CREAM."

cnbc.com/2019/07/21/the…
Simba: "Why are Disney's margins higher in animated movies?"

Mufasa: "Because we aren't real. The living voice talent gets far less as a wholesale transfer price than they would on a screen."

Simba: "Nice! That avoids disputes like the one between Taylor and Scooter Braun."
Mufasa: "If people like Elon are right and artificial intelligence gets good enough, we will make a play to buy back the masters."

Simba: "Will Snoop Lion help us?"

Mufasa: "As Snoop triumphed over Suge Knight, so will we. No 360 deals for us with studios! Hakuna matata."
Read 3 tweets

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Garry()
@garrytan
I find this a weird and interesting situation - Germany for instance yields -0.11%

Why even buy bonds at all? Wouldn’t you be better off staying in cash then?
Takeaway: Capital is in such oversupply that you have to pay the government to hold on to it in some parts of the developed world
Global negative-yielding debt hit $10.6T the other day, the highest such total since Sept 2016 and almost 2X the volume in place last Oct.

Who buys? Owners of target-date funds w/ exposure to global bond indexes. Millions of Americans.

barrons.com/articles/jim-g…
Read 4 tweets
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Baba97
@Baba9773
1) News Roundup! Tariffs, John James, John Solomon, Comey on CNN, Prescription Drugs, Self-Deportations, Jobs, Sec. of Defense, Trump Judicial Armada, Blessed…..

I think the Chinese and the world are waking up today realizing that our President doesn't bluff. If a trade deal
2) with China gets done, it will be very one sided for our country. Our President and his Killers could careless if it ever gets done. They have a different end game in mind.

3)
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Janamejayan
@Janamejayan
1. I have few followers who are so much interested in Sri Vidya that I tweeted on Sri Chakram and Trantra and later Soundaryalahari. Yet, in spite of its elaborateness I sensed more craving in the followers to know more on Mahamaayi.
2. It resulted in these sets of tweets that will run for many weeks. I dedicate this work of mine to the one and only ARCHANA PUROHIT ( @Archies__ ) who came into my life through Twitter and became my child.
3. I have been a Kaamakshi upaasaka ever since my childhood. It occured to me over 30 years ago that I was bestowed with this Supreme Knowledge of Avasthatraya by the the Venerable Chitrupi Herself under a very strange circumstance.
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ella
@minjiiminie
TAEKOOK AU

Jungkook thought he wouldn’t have to see Taehyung again after their break up. But a month before his brother’s wedding, the wedding planner leaves and there’s only one person that can take the job: event planner Kim Taehyung. As the best man, Jungkook can’t ignore him
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💍 social media + small written bits

💍 if the thread breaks click on the last tweet with replies, the au should reappear underneath

💍 no cheating involved in taekook’s break up

💍 side established in love and soon to be married 2seok and... wait for it...yoonminjoon (!!!)
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Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) Some smart folks in independent and corporate media are being obtuse about whether Trump was in negotiations for *1 Moscow tower or 2* during the period of time such negotiations would be relevant to Mueller's probe. I break it down here. Hope you'll read on and retweet.
1/ First, understand that as both a legal matter *and* a political matter the importance—indeed necessity—of correctly discussing *two* Trump Tower Moscow deals rather than one has nothing to do with the date range some who know better focus on: June 16, 2015 to November 8, 2016.
2/ *Legally*, as a matter of Bribery—a discrete federal crime designated as an impeachable offense in the Constitution—the question is whether Trump participated in a course of conduct that began *anytime* pre-election and had him promising specific policy as POTUS for *payment*.
Read 56 tweets
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DuelingDogma
@duelingdogma
/THREAD/
Ok, a few words on guns. Let’s just start with the obvious. There are an insane amount of guns floating around the US. And yes I mean insane literally. It is at levels that should be treated as the result of some kind of pathology.
1/ Now there are third world war zones where the numbers are not exactly reliable that probably beat the US there. But the numbers are solid for anything in the developed world which is the comparison point for the US.
2/ Americans stockpile weaponry like nobody else. Because it makes you safe! It protects your family! You have to be able to defend yourself! Guns are necessary!!!

Yeah, that’s not working out so well.
Read 33 tweets

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