Thread by @WheatNOil

Jesse Puljujarvi is younger than Tyler Benson.

Puljujarvi hasn’t knocked it out of the park in his NHL time (though given the context of who he played with, it’s not as bad as people claim).

However, only the Oilers could run a player out of town before he plays a game as a 21 year old.

Let’s take a stroll through Puljujarvi history.

He was drafted as a young 18 year old (May birthday). Despite this, Chiarelli was quoted as saying the Hall trade was easier to make b/c JP was drafted. They thought he’d be ready quickly. His NHLe in his draft year was 20.

Which means, based on his production in Finland, you’d expect ‘on average’ he’d get about 20 points in 82 games in his draft+1 year in the NHL.

He actually scored 8 in 28 games in his rookie season, which is 23 points/82 games.

So exactly what you’d expect.

The Oilers, I think, got caught up with JP’s size & thought he was ready. But based on his actual production, it should’ve been clear he would benefit from another year abroad. At 17, he hadn’t destroyed the Liiga yet.

Much like Broberg, he needed time.

Obviously some of that is hindsight but the NHLe was known at the time, as well as his later birthday. The data hasn’t changed, it has merely been born out.

In his rookie year, he played a total of 28 games. 10 of those games were under 10 minutes of TOI. He had only 3 games of 15 minutes or more.

He was on the roster for exactly 40 games (enough to burn a RFA year, then sent him to the AHL.)

One assumes that staying 40 games on the NHL roster was a negotiated contractual move. I ‘assume’ that came from JP’s party. I don’t know if JP didn’t want to come over yet & the Oilers pushed so he negotiated this in. Or if this was a negotiating tactic from the beginning.

Or perhaps they just asked and Chiarelli said ‘yes’, the same way he said ‘yes’ to all those NMCs and other contracts he signed. Chiarelli wasn’t much of a negotiator.

Regardless, Chiarelli clearly thought he was NHL ready. McLellan did not and played him as such.

One of many rifts between the GM & Coach not seeing eye-to-eye on player evaluation, leading to collateral damage.

In any case, he went down to Bakersfield and scored 28 points in 39 games as an 18 year old (Remember, most of the AHL is 20+ years old.)

That’s an NHLe of 27.5.

He’s improving his stock year over year.

Next year he starts in the AHL, scores 5 points in 10 games. Then gets called up.

That’s the entirety of his AHL time in the AHL. Throughout the remainder of the year, there’s this verbal that the ‘team’ doesn’t want to send JP down b/c there’s no centre to play with down there.

This 2nd year as a 19 year old is where JP gets a shot. He plays 65 games. He gets 12 goals and 20 points.

He gets 13 games with over 15 minutes and only 6 games with less than 10. He’s a middle 6 winger on a bad team.

His most common linemate is Milan Lucic who he spends more than 50% of his time with.

He gets some time with Connor McDavid (Lucic on the other wing) and the team does well when they’re on the ice together in shots and goals (though many do well with McDavid).

When he’s not playing with McDavid, he plays with Strome. They pretty much break even in shots and do outscore the opposition.

JP isn’t drowning but he’s not excelling. Yet the Oilers aren’t sending him down to the AHL (where he started).

He is 19.

Now we go to Year 3. JP starts on Ryan Strome’s wing. During the start of the year, they are fantastic in outshooting the opposition (57.8% CF), outchancing the opposition (55.6% scoring chances, 55.2% xGF), but can’t buy a goal.

He goes down to the AHL again. Scores 4 points in 4 games. In that time, Strome (the centre he was doing well with to start the year but Sh% got in the way) is traded. McLellan is fired. Hitchcock is hired.

JP is recalled again.

He spends most of the remainder of the year with RNH and either Lucic or Khaira as the other linemate. Nothing rhymes and things don’t go well.

Just before the trade deadline they try to send him down again. Then things get weird.

It seems JP at this point is frustrated. His agent indicates he’s unhappy. Turns out he also has a lingering hip issue. He gets surgical correction. Year is done. (Side note: How long has this been bothering him? Was he playing through it? Was this holding him back?)

Up to this point, I actually think the only time Puljujarvi hasn’t been an NHL player was the back part of this season, at least in terms of statistical events when he’s on the ice.

He hasn’t been doing ‘well’ but he hasn’t been holding anyone back until this recent run with RNH

His rookie year he performed basically where you’d expect him despite 3rd/4th line ice time.

His 2nd year he didn’t excel but he wasn’t holding anyone back in shots/goals.

3rd yr couldn’t buy a goal with Strome, then legit struggled w/ RNH, then got surgery.

Now we can extrapolate all this out and say JP isn’t going to make it. He’s not good enough. He’s whatever whatever. And maybe he won’t.

I also think a new GM & coach is a great opportunity for JP. It may be a better opportunity than whatever awaits him on a new team.

However, he’s made his choice and cast his die. Maybe he changes his mind, maybe he doesn’t.

Regardless, I can’t look at that timeline and think it makes good logical sense.

If JP succeeded, it would be ‘despite’ his developmental path, not because of it.

In life you’ve got to make hay of whatever few opportunities you get. JP didn’t, though I maintain he’s been ‘ok’ but for this last run.

If you’re an organization, you’ve got to put people in positions to succeed. Otherwise they won’t & you won’t.

And the Oilers haven’t.

So here we are.

Maybe Puljujarvi needs to learn some lessons. I sure as hell did when I was 21.

However, I do think his biggest sin was not being what the Oilers needed him to be before he was ready to be that.

And that’s a system issue.

About 1/3 of my job is training medical professionals. Sometimes students/residents don’t succeed & they have to own that.

But also sometimes the program sucks. The program needs to own that.

There’s one thing I’m certain of in this whole JP thing. The training program sucked.

Bonus fun fact: I don’t know what assurances were made to JP / his agent in his rookie season but had been sent down to the AHL after 9 games instead of 28, he’d still have a year left on his contract this season.

He played 202 minutes in those 19 games (about 10.6 mins/game).