Asia is forecast to reach ~50% of global GDP by 2040 and ~40% of global consumption (McKinsey & Co). As a historian, you can see share of GDP is simply returning to ancient norms with the rise of Asia (notwithstanding the significant margin of error with an analysis like this).
Even compared with the Roman era, the European share only peaks during the modern colonial period through to the end of WW2. The war broke the old European imperial business models of restrictive supply chains - invading countries and plundering natural resources and goods.
The USA introduced a new business model, of free trade and open markets, selling products across the world and achieving a unique technological, economic and cultural domination that continues through to today. #globalization#macroeconomics#Markets
The Journey of Vini Costmetics
✍️1985: Darshan Patel joins his father's co Paras Pharmaceuticals
✍️1994: Launched Krack which was an overnight success
✍️1996-2000: Launched a range of products(D-Cold, Borosoft,Ring Guard,Itch Guard)
✍️2002: Launched Livon-IND's 1st hair detangler
✍️2005: Set Wet hairstyling gel is launched and later a deodrant under the same brand name
✍️2006: Patel exits Paras. He sold his 24% stake to Actis Capital for $43 Mn
✍️2007: Registered Vini Costmetics and spend the next couple of years doing consumer research
✍️2010: Vini Costmetics was launched; started selling pharma products; WhiteTone was launched; Paras Pharmaceuticasl was acquired by Reckitt Benckiser Group for INR 3260 Crs
✍️2011: Launched Fogg deodorants; Bay Capital came on board, investing 30 Crs
Aurobindo CMP 868
The company is developing:
✍️14 Biosimilars (5 of these expected to launch by FY25 with a US$20 market size)
✍️8 inhalers (US market size is >$10 Bn)
✍️Pneumcoccal Conjugate Vaccine (US$6.2 bn global market size)
✍️3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)
Co also developing 50 Other Complex generics
✍️Peptides (US$14.5 Bn Mkt size-Global $2.5 bn size for 5 filed ANDAs and Global $12bn for 10 under development)
✍️Topicals (US$4 Bn Mkt size-26 products under development currently out of total 37 products identified for development)
✍️Transdermal patches (US$3 Bn Global Mkt size) : 8 products under development (Clinical trials to begin for the 1st product in FY21)
✍️Nasals (US$1.3 Bn Mkt size) : 1 approved + 4 under development (Filing will be done over the course of next 3 yrs) #Aurobindopharma #Growth
✍️IND's Renewable Energy sector is world's 4th most attractive RE Mkt
✍️Globally, Cost to generate Solar & Wind Energy dropped by 90% & 70% in past 10 yrs
✍️Costs almost at par with NG
✍️RE is estimated to comprise ~60% of IND’s installed power capacity by 2030 (~24% at present)
✍️Global Investments in RE: $282 Bn in 2019
✍️45% cming frm China, who aims to get 62% energy via RE in nxt 3 yrs
✍️By 2040, IND aims to generate ~49% of total Electricity frm RE
✍️FDI inflow in the Indian non-conventional “energy sector” stood at $9.22B in last 10 years
✍️More than $42B has been invested in IND’s “RE” sector since 2014
✍️Estimated to attract investment ~$80B in nxt 4 yrs
✍️The past 9 months have slowed the Solar Energy installations by 80% v/s 2019 due to Covid
✍️2020-Cumulative solar capacity is ~37 GW
✍️2022-Tgt is 100 GW
Valiant Organics CMP 2795
✍️A Specialty Chemical Manufacturing Company.
✍️The products of the company find several applications mainly in the agro-chemical, pharmaceuticals, rubber, dyes, pigment & in the making of veterinary drugs
✍️Fully integrated manufacturing facilities
✍️Revenue: Domestic 85% & Export 15%
(Agro 40%,Specialty 30%,Dyes+Pigments 20%,API 10%)
✍️Rev. share from API is likely to increase in coming yrs
✍️One of the most competitive producers of Chlorination, Ammonolysis,Acylation,Hydrogenation & Methoxylation based specialty products
✍️Inorganic growth & organic capital expansion without much increase in Debt Equity
✍️Leveraging a de-risked biz model
✍️The synergistic acquisition of Amarjyot chemical ltd last year
✍️Ability to forward integrate by adding high-margin & high value products to maximise growth
IndusInd Bank CMP 380
✍ Stock fell frm 2038 high to 235
✍ Decreasing deposits
✍ Rising bad loans
✍ High exposure to telecom companies & NBFCs
✍ Exit of a long-time CEO
✍ Crisis at #yesbank has put question mark on rest of the private lenders
✍ Stock corrected 68% in March
Journey from 2035 to 235
✍ Dec 2017 - RBI imposes INR 3 Crs penalty for under-reporting of FY16 NPAs
✍ Apr 2018 - Reports divergence in FY17 NPAs of INR 1350 Crs frm RBI's estimates
✍ Sep 2018 - Discloses exposure of INR 3000 Crs to IL&FS, a crisis-ridden NBFC #IndusindBank
✍ July 2019 - Completes merger with Bharat Financial Inclusion
✍ Jan 2020 - Posts disappointing Q3, provisions up by 72%, gross NPAs more than double YoY, asset quality worsens, Mr Sobti set to retire in Mar'20
✍ Feb 2020 - Moody's downgrades Outlook to Negative from Stable
The API Industry
✍️ The backbone of India pharma industry is the bulk drug industry
✍️ India has highest no. of US FDA approved plants (665) outside of the US
✍️ India has 44% of global abbreviated new drug applications (ANDA)
✍️ India needs to proactively boost the API Industry
✍️ The Indian pharma industry is the world's 3rd largest in terms of vol
✍️ India's API industry is ranked the 3rd largest in the world
✍️ India fulfils 20% of global demand for generic medicines in terms of Vol & supplies over 60% of global demand of various vaccines & ARV drugs
✍️ Indian bulk drug industry has grown at CAGR of 8.6% over 2016-2020. It is further expeacted to grow at similar CAGR during 2020-2024
✍️ The import of APIs has risen at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2012-2019
✍️ Bulk drug import reached a value of INR ~249 billion in 2019