Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #macroeconomics
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When students of statistics are introduced to creating and interpreting models, they are introduced to George Box's maxim:
*All models are wrong, some are useful.*
It's a call for humility and perspective, a reminder to superimpose the messy world on your clean lines. 1/
*All models are wrong, some are useful.*
It's a call for humility and perspective, a reminder to superimpose the messy world on your clean lines. 1/
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
pluralistic.net/2023/04/03/all… 2/
pluralistic.net/2023/04/03/all… 2/
Even with this benediction, modeling is forever prone to the cardinal sin of insisting that complex reality can be reduced to "a perfectly spherical cow of uniform density on a frictionless plane." 3/
🐋🦈 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐬 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐔𝐒 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤 𝐑𝐮𝐧 🏦
According to crypto tracker Santiment, #Bitcoin whales and sharks accumulated 40,557 BTC worth $821.50 million in the past week.
THREAD 🧵
According to crypto tracker Santiment, #Bitcoin whales and sharks accumulated 40,557 BTC worth $821.50 million in the past week.
THREAD 🧵
#FuneralHomes were once dominated by local, family owned businesses. Today, your local funeral home is likely owned by #ServiceCorporationInternational, who bought hundreds of funeral homes (keeping the proprietor's name over the door), hiking prices and reaping vast profits. 1/
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
pluralistic.net/2022/12/16/sch… 2/
pluralistic.net/2022/12/16/sch… 2/
Funeral homes are now one of America's most predatory, vicious industries, and SCI uses the profits it gouges out of bereaved, reeling families to fuel more acquisitions - 121 more in 2021. 3/
Wondering what history tells us about @federalreserve 🏦 tightening vs. loosening 💵cycles? If so, you're not alone! Here's a thread that breaks down the data 📊, #interestrates pause/pivot, & more... 🧵/👇🏼
#StockMarket #FederalReserve @LizAnnSonders
#StockMarket #FederalReserve @LizAnnSonders
India is emerging as one of the relatively better-off economies in the post-COVID world.
#indianeconomy
(2/n)
#indianeconomy
(2/n)
Looking closely, we find that India’s inflation is well controlled, ATH FX reserves have acted well as a shock absorber against volatility, and our GDP growth expectations is one the highest in the world!
#inflation #volatility #GDP
(3/n)
#inflation #volatility #GDP
(3/n)
1/n 北溪事件无疑加剧了全球大宗商品能源和货币的动荡，高通胀背景下货币体系的崩坏和重建似乎变得合理了...瑞信的网红分析师Zoltan（之前在纽约联储和美国财政部任职）在国内比较出圈的应该就是他俄乌战争后关于布雷顿森林体系3.0的论述：🧵
#CreditSuisse #macroeconomics
#CreditSuisse #macroeconomics
2/n Zoltan对宏观经济局势的分析有点像明朝那些事儿的风格，当然也有阳春白雪的许多专业著作。简而言之，布雷顿森林体系之前的发展，从黄金-美元到石油-美元，美元的地位一直强势，在crypto领域也是如此。甚至我在向圈外的朋友解释crypto和美元的关系时，也很难去说服别人crypto是美元革命而非推手。
3/n 对于Zoltan的分析框架，简单说就是全球化大背景下的中美欧俄四方经济的高度嵌合逐步瓦解，贸易战/制裁等措施所带来的力的作用不可能是单方面的，美元作为全球储备、计价、交易货币的地位动摇，大宗商品会成为另一种储备货币，而计价和交易也不非得使用美元。
Howard Marks en son yazdığı “memo”sunda makroekonomik tahmin yapmanın gerekliliğini sorguluyor.
Bir tahmin yapıyorsak bazı varsayımlara göre yapıyoruzdur. Yoksa atmasyon bir şey olur. Yapılan her varsayım ise bizi gerçeklikten uzaklaştırıyor.
Bir tahmin yapıyorsak bazı varsayımlara göre yapıyoruzdur. Yoksa atmasyon bir şey olur. Yapılan her varsayım ise bizi gerçeklikten uzaklaştırıyor.
Tahmin yapmak, normalde hayli karmaşık etkileşim içinde olan bir sürü veriye, gelişmeye aynı anda hakim olmayı gerektiriyor. Pozitif bir bilim olmayan ve insan davranışlarına oldukça duyarlı iktisatta ise doğru tahmin yapmak neredeyse imkansızlaşıyor.
Geleceği tahmin ederken geçmiş iyi bir rehber midir, yani her bir durum karşısında hep aynı şeyler mi olur (stationarity)? Pozitif bilimlerde bu geçerli olabilir. Ama iktisatta hep düşünmediğimiz bir şeyler mutlaka vardır ve her zaman beklenmedik bir şey olur.
🚨FOMC preview ...🧵
Target rate probabilities for July 27 (Wed) between 225 and 275 with 3x as much probability on 225-250 (75 bps).
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Target rate probabilities for July 27 (Wed) between 225 and 275 with 3x as much probability on 225-250 (75 bps).
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Fed will be data driven.
Currently, the market is factoring in target rate probabilities (Dec 2022 FOMC meeting) at 325-375 bps.
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Currently, the market is factoring in target rate probabilities (Dec 2022 FOMC meeting) at 325-375 bps.
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
📉Desired demand reduction is visible.
Consumer confidence and subsequently, Retail is taking a massive beating.
JP Morgan global aggregates. 👇
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets
Consumer confidence and subsequently, Retail is taking a massive beating.
JP Morgan global aggregates. 👇
#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets
Let’s understand if Indian Markets are currently overvalued or undervalued. A Thread 🧵
#macroeconomics #economy #India #MSCI #Nifty #SP500
@SahilKapoor @ankitapathak_ @avasthiniranjan @WeekendInvestng @virtual_kg @564pankaj @JustPunforfun @JustNifty @raggy_k @pprao
#macroeconomics #economy #India #MSCI #Nifty #SP500
@SahilKapoor @ankitapathak_ @avasthiniranjan @WeekendInvestng @virtual_kg @564pankaj @JustPunforfun @JustNifty @raggy_k @pprao
For this we need to understand P/E ratio. It basically tells us the number of years at constant profits it will take to return the investment.
It tends to capture the agony and ecstasy of the market.
It tends to capture the agony and ecstasy of the market.
In bear phase investors are despondent about the future, P/E ratios of companies and indices will contract. Exactly opposite happens in bull phase.
The @federalreserve is talking of hiking interest rates and end their quantitative easing (QE) policy to halt rising inflation. A Thread 🧵 to understand what it means.
#macroeconomics #investing #economy
@JustPunforfun @564pankaj @CNBCTV18News @bloombergquint @EconomicTimes
#macroeconomics #investing #economy
@JustPunforfun @564pankaj @CNBCTV18News @bloombergquint @EconomicTimes
With inflation currently around 7%(USA) and 6,95%(India), businesses and consumers are feeling the pinch.
The Fed’s actions are designed to reduce the inflation rate to a more comfortable 2.00%-3.00% (USA).
@RBI expects India to be down to 5.7% for this financial Year.
2/n
The Fed’s actions are designed to reduce the inflation rate to a more comfortable 2.00%-3.00% (USA).
@RBI expects India to be down to 5.7% for this financial Year.
2/n
To accomplish this, the Fed / Central Banks will raise its Federal Funds rate. The Federal Funds rate is the rate at which banks can borrow and lend from each other so they can continue to provide loans to businesses and individuals.
3/n
3/n
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 02/12/2022 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2022/02/12/dai…
Perfusion and urban thickness: The shape of cities
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
#PerfusionDynamics, #FractalPatterns, #UrbanGrowth, #NewBook
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
#PerfusionDynamics, #FractalPatterns, #UrbanGrowth, #NewBook
Joseph Zeballos-Roig on Twitter and ThreadReader
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1491878…
#FederalDebt, #DebtRepayment, #GovernmentResponsibility, #MacroEconomics
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1491878…
#FederalDebt, #DebtRepayment, #GovernmentResponsibility, #MacroEconomics
Positive Real Interest Rates are required to reduce inflation.
Negative Real IR's do not help rein prices.
This little much cannot be understood by the central bankers in high-inflation economies?
That works if the source of inflation is the money supply growth due to the deficit
Negative Real IR's do not help rein prices.
This little much cannot be understood by the central bankers in high-inflation economies?
That works if the source of inflation is the money supply growth due to the deficit
However, if the source of #inflation is supply-side shocks, then raising policy interest rates might hurt more.
For e.g. the Exchange rate shock which brings in imported inflation into the economy needs forex supply to counter the import/outflow demand.
IR is the painful lever
For e.g. the Exchange rate shock which brings in imported inflation into the economy needs forex supply to counter the import/outflow demand.
IR is the painful lever
yes, a higher CB Rate should technically curb aggregate demand and expenditures in the economy.
It can reduce the domestic money supply as bank borrowing declines and thereby reduces the monetary base.
Which should taper the imports & adjust the Current a/c.
Shock Therapy 101
It can reduce the domestic money supply as bank borrowing declines and thereby reduces the monetary base.
Which should taper the imports & adjust the Current a/c.
Shock Therapy 101
#PPCParis is about to begin! If you can't join us live at @SciencesPo_CEE then make sure to check out our Twitter highlights!
/THREAD🧵
/THREAD🧵
Welcome to DAY 1⃣ of #PPCParis! Florence Haegel from @SciencesPo_CEE is opening the conference now: "The overlapping of #EU2022FR with the #FrenchElections of 2022 will frame the agenda of the French Presidency to a great extent"
/2
/2
As part of these welcoming words to #PPCParis we thank Florence Haegel for her warm words and short analysis of the upcoming French Presidency of the @EUCouncil
We're about to hear also from TEPSA Secretary-General @CloosJim
/3
We're about to hear also from TEPSA Secretary-General @CloosJim
/3
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 08/27/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/08/27/dai…
Secrets of COVID-19 transmission revealed in turbulent puffs
phys.org/news/2021-08-s…
#COVID19 #AirborneTransmission #turbulence #ResearchResults
phys.org/news/2021-08-s…
#COVID19 #AirborneTransmission #turbulence #ResearchResults
Butterfly effect can double travel of virus-laden droplets
phys.org/news/2021-06-b…
#ButterflyEffect #ComputerSimulations #COVID19 #AirborneTransmission
phys.org/news/2021-06-b…
#ButterflyEffect #ComputerSimulations #COVID19 #AirborneTransmission
The Best of #Finance #Twitter
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#Thread
.
Thanks @VolQuant for sharing (!) 👍 and @HSBC trading desk for preparing 👏
.
#EmergingMarkets #forex #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #Macroeconomics #fx #trading #chart #equities #vol
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Updates at the end of the thread
.
#Thread
.
Thanks @VolQuant for sharing (!) 👍 and @HSBC trading desk for preparing 👏
.
#EmergingMarkets #forex #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #Macroeconomics #fx #trading #chart #equities #vol
.
Updates at the end of the thread
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 04/05/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/04/05/dai…
Is Joe Biden Really the Second Coming of F.D.R. and L.B.J.?
newyorker.com/news/letter-fr…
#legislation #PartisanPolitics #FederalFunding
newyorker.com/news/letter-fr…
#legislation #PartisanPolitics #FederalFunding
Mikko Packalen on Twitter and ThreadReader
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1377974…
#PandemicResponse #COVID19 #misinformation
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1377974…
#PandemicResponse #COVID19 #misinformation
Durante estos días, y por la publicación en castellano de #TheDeficitMyth, os traeremos un #HiloDeLibros sobre obras relevantes para comprender la Teoría Monetaria Moderna, desde aquellas que la defienden y explican hasta las más críticas desde diversas escuelas económicas #TMM
@UCM_ECONOMICAS @Economia_EA @el_mmt @MariodelRosal @juanrallo @edugaresp @Evanshm @ptcherneva @billy_blog 🦉#ElMitoDelDéficit (@StephanieKelton; 2021, 400 pp. Ed. @tauruseditorial)
¿Y si el déficit fiscal no fuera dañino para un país... sino necesario para su progreso? Uno de los libros de economía más divisivos de los últimos años, escrito por la asesora económica de Bernie Sanders
¿Y si el déficit fiscal no fuera dañino para un país... sino necesario para su progreso? Uno de los libros de economía más divisivos de los últimos años, escrito por la asesora económica de Bernie Sanders
🦉#TeoríaMonetariaModerna (L. R. Wray; 2015, 295 pp. Ed. @LolaBooks)
A través del estudio histórico del dinero, #TMM describe la utilidad de las herramientas del Estado (moneda, impuestos, deuda, déficit) para conseguir a la vez crecimiento, pleno empleo y estabilidad de precios
A través del estudio histórico del dinero, #TMM describe la utilidad de las herramientas del Estado (moneda, impuestos, deuda, déficit) para conseguir a la vez crecimiento, pleno empleo y estabilidad de precios
I am humbled and privilleged to note that my #Research paper; "Sources of #Unemployment in #Lesotho" is now available and can be accessed via the People's Republic of #China's National #Science and #Technology #Library - #NSTL. I give thanks 😎
So far this year, I have successfully published three #Research articles in #Macroeconomics & #Finance, with another two in press. I am currently hammering away at a handful of working papers which will most certainly find a home in reputable #Journals, come 2021 🙏🏽🙂
Im currently internalising the very insightful reviewer comments on my latest #Research paper titled; "Investigating Determinants of Commercial Bank Spreads in #Lesotho", from the good folks over at the globally reputable #International #Journal of #Finance & #Economics #IJFE 😊
The Swiss National Bank will have its meeting today, and with Switzerland having fallen back into deflation, markets are pricing in a 30% chance for a small rate cut.
That said, the SNB already boasts the lowest rates worldwide, so it is unlikely to cut any deeper as running out of policy ammunition would risk generating a negative expectations loop. Instead, it will probably stick to huge FX interventions.
The CHF may tick higher if the SNB does not indicate any interest in rate cuts or even a thought to it, but any rally might not be sustained for long.
FULL REPORT: trackrecordasia2960.ac-page.com/mailing-list
#MakingSenseofHeadlines #MacroEconomics #TrackRecordDaily #ForexTrading #GlobalMacro #SNB
FULL REPORT: trackrecordasia2960.ac-page.com/mailing-list
#MakingSenseofHeadlines #MacroEconomics #TrackRecordDaily #ForexTrading #GlobalMacro #SNB
DAY AHEAD: EUROPEAN PMIs
Any disappointment from the PMI data could temper the EUR rally. The single currency has been moving sideways during September as investors scale back some of their more optimistic forecasts for the Eurozone economy.
Any disappointment from the PMI data could temper the EUR rally. The single currency has been moving sideways during September as investors scale back some of their more optimistic forecasts for the Eurozone economy.
If the data fail to provide clear signals, the EUR is likely to extend its consolidation. However, strong surprises, whether positive or negative, have the potential to break this trading range as a clearer picture would emerge about where growth is headed in Q4.
1/The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg less than two months before the presidential election tosses one more lit match into the tinderbox of national politics in 2020:
2/It will surely inflame a deeply polarised country already riven by a deadly pandemic, a steep economic downturn, and civil unrest in its major cities.
In Washington, the vacancy fight could ratchet up tensions to a level unseen even in the tumultuous Trump era.
In Washington, the vacancy fight could ratchet up tensions to a level unseen even in the tumultuous Trump era.
3/He could also become the first president since Richard Nixon to install three justices on the high court in a single four-year term.
A successful GOP effort to replace Ginsburg with a conservative before or immediately after a Democratic victory will almost certainly lead to..
A successful GOP effort to replace Ginsburg with a conservative before or immediately after a Democratic victory will almost certainly lead to..
1/It’s an action-packed week, with three major central bank meetings, the election over who will become Japan’s next leader, and an overload of key economic data. The Fed decision will be crucial (Thu).
2/Will the central bank reinforce its new inflation regime by signalling imminent stimulus, or will it sit back until the US election has passed? Neither the Bank of England (Thu) nor the Bank of Japan (Thu) is likely to act.
3/Instead, those currencies may be driven mostly by how the Brexit saga and global risk sentiment evolve.
FULL REPORT: trackrecordasia2960.ac-page.com/mailing-list
#GlobalMacroAtaGlance #MacroEconomics #TR2min #ForexTrading #GlobalMacroAnalysis #BoJ #BoE
FULL REPORT: trackrecordasia2960.ac-page.com/mailing-list
#GlobalMacroAtaGlance #MacroEconomics #TR2min #ForexTrading #GlobalMacroAnalysis #BoJ #BoE
1/#GreenInitiative will be the narrative that underpins the need for unlimited fiscal spending to aid manufacturing and growth. The continent that is leading the charge in this theme is Europe.
2/They have been strongest advocates for carbon emissions, carbon tax, carbon credits (& Greta Thunberg). It’s a narrative that sticks and one that makes unlimited fiscal spending justifiable (for the good of humanity), this will be an emerging and huge theme going forward.
3/Assets that will benefit from this “Green Narrative” are #Uranium, and Uranium rich countries like Australia ($AUD) and Canada ($CAD).
FULL REPORT: trackrecordasia2960.ac-page.com/mailing-list #GlobalMacroAtaGlance
#MacroEconomics #TR2min #ForexTrading #GlobalMacroAnalysis
FULL REPORT: trackrecordasia2960.ac-page.com/mailing-list #GlobalMacroAtaGlance
#MacroEconomics #TR2min #ForexTrading #GlobalMacroAnalysis
For now, the sell-off seems pretty much limited to leveraged players from ST speculators & in particular e retail sector. The HNW sector which typically would be killed in such a sell-off has reportedly been running v low leveraged since bloodbath in Mar. medium.com/global-macro-a…
However, increasing vol is nv a good thing especially when it’s accelerating down moves in stock markets. With the Nov election looming, Trump can ill-afford an end to the bullish stock market which he has consistently brandished as the barometer of the success of his policies.
