We will grow at the slowest pace than anytime since 1950. Growth rate peaked in 1965-1970 👈🏻
Look at Sub-Saharan Africa. Note that this is a projection & we shouldn't take anything beyond 2050 too seriously. The UN revises this very often but still useful for trends.
#1 India 🇮🇳
#2 Nigeria 🇳🇬
#3 Pakistan 🇵🇰
#4 Congo 🇨🇬
#5 Ethiopia 🇪🇹
#6 Tanzania 🇹🇿
#7 Indonesia 🇮🇩
#8 Egypt 🇪🇬
#10 USA 🇺🇸
#1 India 🇮🇳
#2 China 🇨🇳
#3 Nigeria 🇳🇬
#4 USA 🇺🇸
China population expected to decline while US still increases. Indonesia drops out of fourth place 😱
>-20% decline is full of European countries
>-15% is Japan 🇯🇵 - Japanese people becoming rare
>-5% Russia, Taiwan, Thailand - also becoming rarer
>-2% China 🇨🇳 👈🏻
USA not there !
In South Asia, that will RISE. A complete juxtaposition.
Today, everyone has aged & made fewer babies & so silvering. By 2050, on Africa is young 👇🏻🌍
Birth below 2 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Oh wells. Long silvering stocks?🤷🏻♀️
Look at the USA 🇺🇸 - off the chart!!! A lot of net + migration (I moved to HK in 2011 so -1). Germany big too.
Who sees net outflows? India & China. Also Venezuela. Biggest is Syria!
Okay, so if u got net +inflows of people & net +natural increase (births>deaths) = HOT PINK (e.g., 🇺🇸🦘🇦🇺)
If deaths>births and net outflow = BLUE
But debt can be debilitating if income can't grow faster than the debt. Economists look at debt as a percentage share of income. At the macro level, % of GDP
Private debt % GDP👇🏻
So u have a problem if: a) income declines; b) interest expenses rise; c) debt too high & principal payment rise👈🏻
Time horizon to repay the debt & interest expense on the debt (how fast it compounds relative to ur income) 👈🏻👈🏻👈🏻
When this happens, if ur income growth is weakening, u'd want RATES TO FALL
But do not underestimate central banks' resolve to fight this pull. How? Lowering interest rates. Japan. Europe. Korea. and China too when it has space to do so once it sorts out protein