Nate Cohn Profile picture
Oct 21, 2019 5 tweets 2 min read
Voters in the states likeliest to decide the presidency support the House impeachment inquiry but still oppose impeaching the president and removing him from office
nytimes.com/2019/10/21/ups…
A crucial sliver of the electorate--7 percent of voters--fall into the "inquiry, not remove" camp. They're relatively young, independent, perhaps a hair cynical about politics, and less likely to follow the news very carefully
Voters who disapprove of the president split along lines of political engagement. The president's less engaged opponents aren't ready to remove the president
And in general, voters aren't necessarily sold that the president's conduct is wholly atypical for politicians, even if they think it's bad. Voters think the president's conduct is typical of what politicians do, rather than much worse than typical, by a 46-42 margin
You can pick up your crosstabs and methodology here github.com/ndcohn/impeach…

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Feb 8
One way to think about the Alabama application is that it's an implicit argument that there shouldn't be any Black majority CD in Alabama--or, at least not one that extends out of the so-called Black Belt
The 'compactness' standard in Gingles has always been poorly defined. The AL application is arguing for a higher standard for compactness--something in-line with the standard for compactness that exists in non-VRA districts (COI, geographic regions, crossing jurisdictional lines)
The catch, of course, is that the current AL-7 doesn't meet that standard either--you'd never draw the Black Belt to downtown Birmingham CD (or Mobile for that matter, as in the case of the demonstration map).
Read 9 tweets
Feb 7
Biden's at a low-point in the polls right now, but it does not take any great imagination to imagine how this could be the moment for a turn around
The economic numbers last week were great. He can get a Supreme Court justice win. It's only up from here for his legislative agenda after BBB/FTPA. COVID numbers are plummeting, and there's an opening for Biden to lead the way back to normalcy--which was always his core pitch
Of course, you could have said some version of this case several times over the last year. It's not hard to imagine how events might get in the way, as they have already. But there's an obvious path to better numbers from here
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
Heading into today's NC ruling, I had assumed that a pro-Democratic ruling would probably add two Democratic-leaning CDs--one in Greensboro, the other in the rural northeastern part of the state.
But based on this decision, the Democrats have more upside
The decision doesn't, say, order the GOP to uncrack Greensboro/Black areas of northeast NC.
Instead, it asks Republicans to rely on various statistical measures, like mean-median/efficiency gap, to determine the fairness of the plan.
A map like this one--with two additional Democratic-leaning CDs--would still leave the GOP with a 9-5 edge, an R+11 efficiency gap, and a huge 10 net-pt mean-median gap
Read 14 tweets
Feb 3
I'm seeing a fair amount of fighting over this tweet. Whether it's right depends on the meaning of 'very substantial,' ofc, and it's hard to assign probabilities to a lot of this
But it is at least a real possibility at this point.
Let's work through it
Let's start by penciling in the likely-conservative outcome in every state but PA, NC, OH, FL, AL (I say conservative bc I'll assume, say, a 1-1 split in NH).
If you do that, you get 190 seats that voted more for Biden than the US.
To get 218, Dems need 28 more Dem-tilting seats from PA, NC, OH, FL and AL. In each of these states, there's a realistic 'bad' and 'good' option for Democrats
Read 7 tweets
Feb 1
Over at the Morning, @DLeonhardt is going back and forth a bit with @paulkrugman about why consumer confidence is low, despite a growing economy.
They have two theories; I'll add a third
Krugman notes the inflation numbers aren't *so* bad that it should mean consumer confidence is *this* low.
I do agree with that premise.
If you fit a quick model of consumer confidence as a function of inflation, gdp, income, and unemployment, you'd guess that consumer confidence should be 10-15 points higher or so, depending on model specification. A fairly large gap (truth is red; est is black)
Read 15 tweets
Jan 31
The galaxy brain version of popularism would say liberalism's biggest challenge is that it's no longer especially democratic in a deeper, Dewey-ian sort of way
For all the talk about illiberal democracy, there's a lot to be said for 'undemocratic liberalism' as a challenge in America today--from both the left and the right's point of view.
The left's fear of undemocratic liberalism is fairly obvious, since it's about democratic institutions: they worry about minority rule, subversion, suppression and so on somewhat more than they worry about an end to the First Amendment or something
Read 8 tweets

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