I'm seeing a fair amount of fighting over this tweet. Whether it's right depends on the meaning of 'very substantial,' ofc, and it's hard to assign probabilities to a lot of this
But it is at least a real possibility at this point.
Let's work through it
But it is at least a real possibility at this point.
Let's work through it
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1488967529053622272?s=20&t=8ilPVCn8CWW7U8bkMqVpwA
Let's start by penciling in the likely-conservative outcome in every state but PA, NC, OH, FL, AL (I say conservative bc I'll assume, say, a 1-1 split in NH).
If you do that, you get 190 seats that voted more for Biden than the US.
If you do that, you get 190 seats that voted more for Biden than the US.
To get 218, Dems need 28 more Dem-tilting seats from PA, NC, OH, FL and AL. In each of these states, there's a realistic 'bad' and 'good' option for Democrats
To my mind, the realistic but 'good' scenario for Democrats--not a true best case scenario--clearly involves 30 additional Dem PVI seats, giving them more than the 218 they would need for a truly *fair* congressional map 
Once you're past 218, the median district is *more* Democratic than the nation as a whole, giving the party a chance to win the House without winning the popular vote
And this isn't even a true best case for Democrats--not only in these states, but also in places like SC/LA or even elsewhere
But if even if we just take the 'good' map options for Democrats in just those five states, you wind up with the median seat being 52.5% for Biden by major party vote, with some upside beyond that, and 232 seats carried by Biden in '20
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