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Nate Cohn Profile picture
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Feb 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Biden's at a low-point in the polls right now, but it does not take any great imagination to imagine how this could be the moment for a turn around
The economic numbers last week were great. He can get a Supreme Court justice win. It's only up from here for his legislative agenda after BBB/FTPA. COVID numbers are plummeting, and there's an opening for Biden to lead the way back to normalcy--which was always his core pitch
Of course, you could have said some version of this case several times over the last year. It's not hard to imagine how events might get in the way, as they have already. But there's an obvious path to better numbers from here

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
Feb 4
Heading into today's NC ruling, I had assumed that a pro-Democratic ruling would probably add two Democratic-leaning CDs--one in Greensboro, the other in the rural northeastern part of the state.
But based on this decision, the Democrats have more upside
The decision doesn't, say, order the GOP to uncrack Greensboro/Black areas of northeast NC.
Instead, it asks Republicans to rely on various statistical measures, like mean-median/efficiency gap, to determine the fairness of the plan.
A map like this one--with two additional Democratic-leaning CDs--would still leave the GOP with a 9-5 edge, an R+11 efficiency gap, and a huge 10 net-pt mean-median gap
Read 14 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Feb 3
I'm seeing a fair amount of fighting over this tweet. Whether it's right depends on the meaning of 'very substantial,' ofc, and it's hard to assign probabilities to a lot of this
But it is at least a real possibility at this point.
Let's work through it
Let's start by penciling in the likely-conservative outcome in every state but PA, NC, OH, FL, AL (I say conservative bc I'll assume, say, a 1-1 split in NH).
If you do that, you get 190 seats that voted more for Biden than the US.
To get 218, Dems need 28 more Dem-tilting seats from PA, NC, OH, FL and AL. In each of these states, there's a realistic 'bad' and 'good' option for Democrats
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Feb 1
Over at the Morning, @DLeonhardt is going back and forth a bit with @paulkrugman about why consumer confidence is low, despite a growing economy.
They have two theories; I'll add a third
Krugman notes the inflation numbers aren't *so* bad that it should mean consumer confidence is *this* low.
I do agree with that premise.
If you fit a quick model of consumer confidence as a function of inflation, gdp, income, and unemployment, you'd guess that consumer confidence should be 10-15 points higher or so, depending on model specification. A fairly large gap (truth is red; est is black)
Read 15 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Jan 31
The galaxy brain version of popularism would say liberalism's biggest challenge is that it's no longer especially democratic in a deeper, Dewey-ian sort of way
For all the talk about illiberal democracy, there's a lot to be said for 'undemocratic liberalism' as a challenge in America today--from both the left and the right's point of view.
The left's fear of undemocratic liberalism is fairly obvious, since it's about democratic institutions: they worry about minority rule, subversion, suppression and so on somewhat more than they worry about an end to the First Amendment or something
Read 8 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Jan 26
I think this is true, but to me the more surprising phenomenon of the last year is how... long it has taken for Democrats and progressives to readjust their expectations
This last line here--about an inability to acknowledge that there were real limitations--really resonates with my experiences and I have to say that it caught me by surprise
One maybe related phenomenon is the growing alignment between ideology and what I'll call the pragmatism-v-idealism dimension of politics among Democrats, which has really taken off since '15 or so
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Jan 21
Biden was supposed to be FDR.
Instead, he's following the playbook of the last half century of politically unsuccessful Democratic presidencies, from LBJ and Clinton to Obama.
The result: only 33% say he's focused on the issues they care about
nytimes.com/2022/01/21/us/…
I cited this recent CBS/YouGov poll several times, and I think it's worth taking a look at if you missed it.
Public opinion isn't always straightforward, but Biden's situation isn't really all that complicated
cbsnews.com/news/biden-inf…
tbh Biden hasn't had any difficulty passing legislation that's aimed at dealing with immediate challenges / that has a chance to help him politically
Read 18 tweets

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