One way to think about the Alabama application is that it's an implicit argument that there shouldn't be any Black majority CD in Alabama--or, at least not one that extends out of the so-called Black Belt
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1491045427655114754?s=20&t=LqfvMJMweKEi4vj2TF-pvw
The 'compactness' standard in Gingles has always been poorly defined. The AL application is arguing for a higher standard for compactness--something in-line with the standard for compactness that exists in non-VRA districts (COI, geographic regions, crossing jurisdictional lines)
The catch, of course, is that the current AL-7 doesn't meet that standard either--you'd never draw the Black Belt to downtown Birmingham CD (or Mobile for that matter, as in the case of the demonstration map).
So this is a really high-stakes case--and although the court may protect the GOP against the downside risks, the AL argument actually does create some severe downside risks for the GOP elsewhere, especially in metropolitan TX/GA
By the traditional standards of compactness, there should pretty clearly be additional minority-majority CDs in Cobb County and DFW, for example. The arguments the GOP is putting forward in Alabama would clearly argue for some additional minority-majority CDs there
Whatever you think of the status quo, the more ambiguous interpretation of compactness in Gingles to this point does make it somewhat easier for the GOP to justify something like the old TX-33 (or its current equivalent which i haven't committed to memory yet)
Anyway, this is a really high stakes case--and it would be quite a bit of a gamble for the GOP, at least if they didn't think the house--ie the court--was on their side
And while the house may be on their side, I do think conservative lawyers still have their work cut out for them--protecting the gerrymander in TX/GA while arguing for a higher compactness standard in AL is going to be a narrow needle to thread, and it'll take some craftiness
Ultimately, the GOP goal will be to get to the point where the only operative standard is the bar on retrogression. It's tricky to get to that point--and this court probably wants to help them get there--but it will be a challenge, and the AL brief alone doesn't get them there
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