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1) Alright, all you motherfuckers are starting to piss me off with this #KentuckyElection shit.

None of you are looking at the numbers and seeing WTF happened.

So you know what, fuck you. We're doing it live. We're doing county breakdowns.

What am I trying to prove?
2) 👏 Louisville 👏 was 👏 the 👏 key 👏

Every other county saw turnout decrease from the 2018 midterm elections.

Beshear won because of a turnout SURGE, which went against the trend of virtually every other county.

This surge was enough to push Beshear over the top.
3) Without the Louisville surge, I don't care how many shitfits the Red for Ed fucktards threw, it wouldn't have amounted to shit.

A massive get out the vote drive in Louisville is what turned a narrower loss into a victory, and that drive ONLY flipped the governor race.
4) Drawing my notes from politico.com/election-resul… and nytimes.com/interactive/20…

(I would do NYT-NYT, but I'm paywalled on the 2018 NYT results. So fuck 'em.)
5) Floyd County: 2018, 12262 votes. 2019, 11230 votes. 10% turnout drop

Pike County: 2018, 18995 votes. 2019, 16608 votes. 13% turnout drop

Bell County: 2018, 7475 votes. 2019, 5509 votes. 26% turnout drop

Fayette County (Lexington): 2018, 121612 votes. 2019, 112031. 8% drop
6) Campbell county: 2018, 33911. 2019, 31577. 7% drop.

Grant county: 2018, 7253. 2019, 6425. 11% drop.

I'm moving east to west with these picking out random counties by the way. Hopefully I've established for everyone a decent pattern.

Now lets see Louisville.
7) In 2018, turnout was 278720.

In 2019? 278418.

Almost dead even with their 2018 turnout.

8) In 2018, the turnout rate was 47%, about 1.6 million votes.

In 2019, the turnout rate has been measured at 42%, about 1.45 million votes.

Let's logic this out now; Louisville is dead even with its 2018 turnout. Say other county is averaging to around a 8% drop in turnout.
9) Do the math here. Let's do the math.

If Louisville had dropped in voters with the rest of the state average, let's be generous and say less so because the cities dropped less than rurals, so about 5%, that's 14,000 votes.

Its about a 5000 vote difference in the 2019 results.
10) Do you see what I'm getting at here?

If we're assuming the average drop in turnout of 8%, that's 22k votes.

The Democrats ambushed the GOP with a get out the vote drive that pulled in over 20k voters, who all ticked the 'beshear' box and virtually nothing else.
11) Look at those numbers. Let's assume that the people who put in the bit of extra effort voted for what sounded important, attorney general and secretary of state, and ignored the others.

Do those results gaps between the different races make sense now?
12) It was about Louisville. It was always about Louisville.

The GOP got lazy, didn't turn out the votes to protect themselves from a surge like this, and they lost the governor seat, while taking everything else. Its a pyrrhic victory for Dems, but the GOP has egg on its face.
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