Availability Cascades: how to spread an idea through a large population
chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewconten…
chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewconten…
Why is it important to understand availability cascades?
They determine which ideas spread in the world and which do not. How much an idea spreads is often independent of merit/truth if it gains sufficient momentum.
They determine which ideas spread in the world and which do not. How much an idea spreads is often independent of merit/truth if it gains sufficient momentum.
What are availability cascades?
“A self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse”
“A self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse”
Why are availability cascades so powerful?
They are self-reinforcing feedback loops. The more information available supporting an idea and the more people believe an idea, the more likely it is the next person will also believe it, creating a network effect.
They are self-reinforcing feedback loops. The more information available supporting an idea and the more people believe an idea, the more likely it is the next person will also believe it, creating a network effect.
Feedback loop of availability cascades:
"Public discourse shapes individual risk judgments, risk preferences, and policy preferences; and the reshaped personal variables then transform the public discourse that contributed to their own transformations.”
"Public discourse shapes individual risk judgments, risk preferences, and policy preferences; and the reshaped personal variables then transform the public discourse that contributed to their own transformations.”
There are 2 components of availability cascades:
1) Informational cascades: People rely on information around them since they rarely have the information to evaluate a claim directly.
2) Reputational cascades: People avoid controversial POVs since they dislike being unpopular.
1) Informational cascades: People rely on information around them since they rarely have the information to evaluate a claim directly.
2) Reputational cascades: People avoid controversial POVs since they dislike being unpopular.
1) Informational cascades:
“Because it is costly to gather information, individuals seek to free ride on knowledge that is publicly available through gossip and rumors to scientific reports. Most risk judgments depend largely, if not wholly, on trust placed in selected others.”
“Because it is costly to gather information, individuals seek to free ride on knowledge that is publicly available through gossip and rumors to scientific reports. Most risk judgments depend largely, if not wholly, on trust placed in selected others.”
2) Reputational cascades:
“People ordinarily want to be perceived as standing on high moral ground, so in the presence of sufficiently strong pressures, they adjust their expressions accordingly.”
Both elements become more powerful the more widespread the cascade.
“People ordinarily want to be perceived as standing on high moral ground, so in the presence of sufficiently strong pressures, they adjust their expressions accordingly.”
Both elements become more powerful the more widespread the cascade.
Availability cascades = informational cascades + reputational cascades
”Individuals endorse the perception partly by learning from the apparent beliefs of others and partly by distorting their public responses in the interest of maintaining social acceptance"
”Individuals endorse the perception partly by learning from the apparent beliefs of others and partly by distorting their public responses in the interest of maintaining social acceptance"
Stories ("the availability heuristic") are the basic building block of availability cascades:
“A pervasive mental shortcut whereby the perceived likelihood of any given event is tied to the ease with which its occurrence can be brought to mind”.
“A pervasive mental shortcut whereby the perceived likelihood of any given event is tied to the ease with which its occurrence can be brought to mind”.
There is an open market for availability cascades
“The underlying social conditions thus create what one might call an availability market… the concept of an availability market suggests… competition among availability entrepreneurs”.
“The underlying social conditions thus create what one might call an availability market… the concept of an availability market suggests… competition among availability entrepreneurs”.
Availability entrepreneurs:
“Activists who manipulate the content of public discourse [and] strive to trigger availability cascades likely to advance their agendas"
“Activists who manipulate the content of public discourse [and] strive to trigger availability cascades likely to advance their agendas"
Availability campaigns:
“Pressure groups… seek to instigate availability cascades."
“A common tactic is to produce a headline-grabbing uproar by dramatizing a problem.”
“Pressure groups… seek to instigate availability cascades."
“A common tactic is to produce a headline-grabbing uproar by dramatizing a problem.”
Manipulation of the media
“A common method for triggering availability cascades is for a group to pass carefully sifted information to selected journalists... The information will often contain grains of truth, but it may also harbor biases, even outright fabrications.”
“A common method for triggering availability cascades is for a group to pass carefully sifted information to selected journalists... The information will often contain grains of truth, but it may also harbor biases, even outright fabrications.”
Manipulation of political institutions
“A special-interest group supplies information to members of Congress, who hold hearings... journalists help spread the message... citizens join the fray... laws or regulations are adopted... instigating fresh opportunities [for] uproar"
“A special-interest group supplies information to members of Congress, who hold hearings... journalists help spread the message... citizens join the fray... laws or regulations are adopted... instigating fresh opportunities [for] uproar"
“Populist Firestorms and Democratic Risk Regulation”
“Availability cascades create serious problems for democracy… They create a danger that apparently democratic outcomes will rest on misinformation”
“Availability cascades create serious problems for democracy… They create a danger that apparently democratic outcomes will rest on misinformation”
Problems for democracy
“The argument thus far indicates that "public opinion" about the regulation of risks (the distribution of public policy preferences) constitutes a highly problematic basis for government policy.”
“The argument thus far indicates that "public opinion" about the regulation of risks (the distribution of public policy preferences) constitutes a highly problematic basis for government policy.”
Public vs private preferences divergence
When cascades have a lot of momentum individuals may hide their private preferences if they go against the cascade. Some would argue this happened in the 2016 presidential election.
When cascades have a lot of momentum individuals may hide their private preferences if they go against the cascade. Some would argue this happened in the 2016 presidential election.
Runaway availability cascades
If momentum behind a cascade is high, some people may avoid speaking out against it or even actively support it despite knowing they are inaccurate or outright wrong.
If momentum behind a cascade is high, some people may avoid speaking out against it or even actively support it despite knowing they are inaccurate or outright wrong.
Politicians riding runaway availability cascades
“To avoid charges of insensitivity, even to avoid having to
justify an unpopular position, [a politician] may make speeches and promote policies that convey deep concern about a waste spill that he actually considers harmless.”
“To avoid charges of insensitivity, even to avoid having to
justify an unpopular position, [a politician] may make speeches and promote policies that convey deep concern about a waste spill that he actually considers harmless.”
Social availability errors:
When availability cascades create "widespread mistaken beliefs”.
“The resulting mass delusions may last indefinitely and produce detrimental laws and policies."
When availability cascades create "widespread mistaken beliefs”.
“The resulting mass delusions may last indefinitely and produce detrimental laws and policies."
Meta
Ironically, the paper is itself an availability cascade for available cascades that exploits the availability heuristic: “Offering recent examples of availability cascades that have resulted in socially harmful regulatory responses, we shall propose institutional reforms…”
Ironically, the paper is itself an availability cascade for available cascades that exploits the availability heuristic: “Offering recent examples of availability cascades that have resulted in socially harmful regulatory responses, we shall propose institutional reforms…”
What are historical examples?
Edward Bernays, the GOAT of Availability Entrepreneurs. As Freud’s cousin, he exploited his ideas to create the PR industry, the idea of “lifestyle” products, and sway elections. Documented in The Century of the Self: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Centu…
Edward Bernays, the GOAT of Availability Entrepreneurs. As Freud’s cousin, he exploited his ideas to create the PR industry, the idea of “lifestyle” products, and sway elections. Documented in The Century of the Self: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Centu…
Summary
Availability cascades are extremely powerful mechanisms that determine what ideas dominate in society. They work by combining the proliferation of specific information and social pressure in a runaway self-reinforcing cycle.
Availability cascades are extremely powerful mechanisms that determine what ideas dominate in society. They work by combining the proliferation of specific information and social pressure in a runaway self-reinforcing cycle.
