I often say that being on the brink of war looks exactly the same as being on the brink of peace. People get creative and flexible when war is on the doorstep. So let’s put a “peace filter” on this and see how it looks...
For starters, it is impossible to imagine Soleimani would have favored a peace deal unless it was a bad deal for us. He’s gone, and he might have been the biggest obstacle.
Next, the Iranian leadership is now thinking about their own mortality in ways they were not a week ago. That has a way of biasing you toward peace.
If the US pulled out of Iraq after the embassy “attack” it would look weak. But withdrawing with a solid peace agreement after taking out the head of the military would not.
Iran’s leaders probably need to continue spreading Islamic “revolution” and targeting of Israel and supporting Palestinians no matter what. But could we persuade them to take their “battle” to the Internet and the field of ideas where it belongs?
Persuading hearts and minds is often effective where military conflict is not. Can Iran not be persuaded to use BETTER tools for their revolution? No censorship on our side. Bring your best argument.
Does Iran seriously think it can ever “wipe Israel off the map” militarily? I doubt it. And if Iran acts rationally (even if we don’t like it) in coming months, it suggests they do not have a crazy-irrational death cult situation.
Iran hates ISIS as much as we do. Maybe ISIS should be their problem, now that we helped cut it down to size.
This would be a great time to talk about a deal for Israel and the Palestinians — ideally a deal that allows Iran to participate productively.
Peace in the Middle East has morphed from something that looks impossibly complex to a single decision by one leader in one country: Iran. Would Iran take a deal that gets US out of Iraq, agree to nuke inspections, and work to get a wider peace deal done? The timing is ideal.
Yes, we are on the brink of war, and things MIGHT go that way. But keep in mind that we might never again be one person’s decision away from a deal that is spectacular for everyone in the region.
