1/ So in the state of New York they have administered 3.260 tests. Keep in mind to this point they are mainly testing people who traveled to an affected area or were in direct contact with a confirmed case. Of those 421 tested positive. 13%.
2/ If it held (as they expand the testing criteria it will likely go down) this would mean testing 1,000,000 people would result in 130,000 cases. That number sounds large but it nowhere near 70% of the population.
3/ Now some will point out that the R0 of COVID-19 means the growth isn’t linear. That’s true. But everywhere else that testing has expanded and people are quarantined the rate of spread actually goes down not up.
4/ I think everything we are doing is appropriate and necessary to protect the vulnerable population. But the idea that 70% of the US population will get COVID-19 is absurd. That’s not going to happen. Not in the near future. /end
