I need your help. I want to know from modellers in all areas what we need from a (any) Government #COVIDー19 model (which will predict numbers and timing of infections and will drive national policy). Please share and we will croudsource a requirements list
I'd like to crowd source our requirements for the model (parameters, validation, assumptions, code) - and I'd like to help from all #modelling ( #simulation / #economic / #policy / #epidemiological / #behavioral ) experts in putting together our requirements. I'll start.
I want to know what objective function is being maximized. @MattHancock
said on @BBCPolitics #marrbbc.in/2QiyxdY this morning 'Herd immunity is not our policy, it is not our goal. Our goal is to protect life...'. My first question would be _whose_ life:
In the @cabinetofficeuk #sagegov.uk/government/gro… model, what is the difference in weighting (if any) between a 90-year-old with 'underlying health conditions' and a 30-year-old parent?
Please retweet this thread widely (and add @[name] people ideally) as I'd like to get as many expert views in any field - they will hopefully self-organize (by likes and retweets) - and we can then look at who is authoring the tweet to ensure they are an expert in their own area
If this takes off, I will rank the croud-sourced requirements and let everyone know.
Please just reply to this tweet with your requirement, and Twitter will do the rest by liking / retweeting your request.
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The UK Covid Public Inquiry has published its first Report, on Resilience and Preparedness. It is the most urgent report, as we are still ill-prepared for the next pandemic.
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This is the first of many reports, each reviewing a specific area, including healthcare systems; test, trace, and isolate; and the economic response to the pandemic.
The Module 1 Report sets out nine significant flaws from the Covid-19 pandemic:
"Inflation is currently 10%. If inflation halves, how much will a £1 pint of milk cost".
Sounds easy. It's not. It's ambiguous. It's not a good question. Unless it's designed to be a bad question. In which case it's a good question.
1. It talks about 'inflation'. But *what* inflation? At the moment, we have overall inflation at roughly 10% but inflation of food at roughly 20%. So is the overall inflation rate the same as the inflation rate for milk? It's not clear. Bad question.
First, the @ONS Covid Infection Survey is being paused, and @CovidGenomicsUK is being retired. This will have implications for data reliability and availability going forward.
OK, I'm going to write a response to this maths problem, published in @DailyMailUK, that has caused a lot of comment, some thinking the answer is 1 and some thinking the answer is 9.
Many of us would go straight to the answer 1. That's because we know (or our children know, and have taught us), that there is a 'rule' for how you deal with the order of doing the calculation - do you do + first or ÷, for example?
Enter BIDMAS (or BODMAS).
"It stands for Brackets, Indices [or Order], Division, Multiplication, Addition and Subtraction."
That's the conventional order. Forget about indices [or order] for now - that's not important for this one. bbc.co.uk/bitesize/topic…