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1. @Ipea researchers have simulated the coverage of the new #EmergencyBasicIncome. A preferred estimate yields a coverage of 107.2 million people (51% of the pop), assuming a take-up rate of 50% for those eligible who are not in the single registry. Read:
@ipea 2. Brazil is trying to encourage informal workers to #StayAtHome and/or to compensate them for the decreased demand for their services. Government will struggle to register and pay informal workers who are not in social registries linked to electronic payment mechanisms.
@ipea 3. Effective coverage will be affected by registration and payment challenges and eligibility information. However, those informal workers who already receive Bolsa Familia or are at least registered in the single registry are likely to have a 100% take-up.
@ipea 4. Luckily, 80% of the eligible population is already registered in the single registry and 30% of them are #BolsaFamilia beneficiaries. Thus, they can be paid almost immediately. Others will have to use registration and payment mechanisms that have not yet been announced.
@ipea 5. How much will it cost? The authors estimate an additional cost between 1% and 1.3% of Brazil’s GDP. The 0.3% difference reflects the cost difference between 100% and 0% take-up rate for the eligible population not in the single registry.
@ipea 6. The authors of the simulation state that “despite the challenges to implement the emergency benefit immediately, there is no way out, challenges must be overcome soon rather than late to avoid the depressive consequences of the #COVID19 pandemic”.
@ipea 7. The same authors have proposed in a recent @Ipea note some adjustments in the eligibility lines of Bolsa Familia and its value, as well as a 6-month emergency benefit for both beneficiaries of Bolsa Familia and non-beneficiaries registered in the single registry.
@ipea 8. This proposal costs 1.5% of the GDP and covers 30% of the population—instead of the 51% of the approved bill—but for 6 months instead of 3. It also advocates for a medium-term expansion of Bolsa Familia. Read the #OnePager published by the @IPC_IG:
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