Tristan Cope Profile picture
Apr 7, 2020 3 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Significant problems with this paper as it looks impact of #schoolclosure in isolation. Without other social distancing measures the impact would be very small. However without #schoolclosure other social distancing could be pointless
We simply don’t know enough about the epidemiology of #SARSCoV2 to know the full impact of #schoolclosure and we won’t without extensive testing, including asymptomatic individuals to understand how it spreads. But until we know much more school closure is essential.
The evidence so far suggests that children do contract #COVID19 but are usually asymptomatic. We also know that asymptomatic spread is a significant factor. No country can cope with unmitigated spread of this virus.

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More from @tristan_cope

Oct 19, 2020
@FraserNelson Let’s analyse this piece in some detail shall we? Clatterbridge and St. Helens are cold sites, not suitable for acute patients.
The Clatterbridge cancer Centre has moved to Liverpool. It already treats cancer patients and will continue to do so.
@FraserNelson There are a number of other acute hospitals around Liverpool, but they too are struggling with demand. They don’t have capacity to take extra patients from Liverpool. Non-urgent elective surgery has already been stopped or reduced in many of these hospitals.
@FraserNelson The focus will be on trying to maintain cancer and other urgent surgery as much as possible, but even that is under threat if hospital admissions in Merseyside and Cheshire continue at current rates.
Read 19 tweets
Sep 27, 2020
Coronavirus: No, “the cure” is not “worse than the disease”. Anyone telling you this either doesn’t know what they are talking about or is peddling their own agenda.
This is not a trivial illness. For the majority of people it might be mild or even asymptotic,
But for a significant minority, it is a severe, life threatening illness. This is more likely the case if you are older (mortality increases above the age of 50), if you are significantly overweight,
But we are also seeing young fit adults develop critical illness with covid.
The U.K. healthcare system coped well with the first wave, because we stopped a lot of other activity and diverted resources to deal with the huge numbers of sick covid patients.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 13, 2020
This is interesting (if you are into that sort of thing). It contains some conjecture, but also a lot of facts in terms of actions & dates. What is clear is that opportunities were missed. The UK and other countries could have acted more decisively sooner.…
In the ICU community (as well as infectious diseases and respiratory medicine), we have known something like this was coming at some point. It was a question of when, not if. We planned for this level of spread and mortality back in mid-2000s. Swine flu in 2009 was a “near miss”.
The problem seems to be that the epidemiologists, when calculating infection rates and deaths, don’t seem to take into account the impact of overwhelming healthcare services and particularly critical care capacity, despite a lot of modelling having been done on exactly that in 09
Read 5 tweets
Apr 9, 2020
Enjoy Easter weekend with your family, in person with the ones you live with, by Skype or FaceTime with the ones you don’t live with. Go outside for a walk, run or cycle. Sit in your garden if you can, with the family you live with.
Have a BBQ in your garden with the family you live with. Watch some movies, relax, enjoy yourselves.

But: don’t invite friends or family that you don’t live with round. Don’t go to their houses. Don’t meet up with people in parks, or on beaches, or anywhere else.
Do not make any journeys that you do not genuinely need to make.
Spend the weekend with the people you live with, but not with anyone else.

Read 4 tweets
Apr 6, 2020
When #UKGovernment, @CMO_England and @CNOEngland
etc say “stay home, protect the nhs, save lives” what they mean is: if too many people get #COVID19 at the same time healthcare services and particularly intensive care facilities will be overwhelmed.
If those services are overwhelmed then sick people who need the #NHS will not be able to access those critical services. That would mean that people who might otherwise have survived with hospital admission and intensive care support might die.
So, by staying at home you can help to stop the #NHS and vital intensive care services from being overwhelmed and therefore you can help save lives and reduce deaths from #covid19
Read 4 tweets
Mar 14, 2020
Dow Jones jumps 10% after Trump declares a national emergency. What does this show? That the stock market crash resulted from worries that governments weren’t taking coronavirus seriously and weren’t taking decisive action. Now they get a sense that maybe this is changing.
Activity on the stock exchanges is often about confidence. Governments have been reluctant to take bold social measures largely for fear of the potential economic impact. If anything, the rally today shows exactly the opposite.
Investors, like other people, want to see that governments have a good handle on the coronavirus pandemic and are ready and willing to take real action to mitigate the risk. We might not be able to stop the virus, but we can slow down it’s spread.
Read 7 tweets

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