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1/ What does #FlattenTheCurve mean for #NewYork.
3 likely scenarios for new #COVID19 cases finding:
a) Declines sharply (high containment)
b) Gradual decline (medium containment)
c) Flares up forming a bigger wave before declining (low containment)
2) a) Means beyond flattening, quashing the curve. Requires aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation of cases to arrest #coronavirus spread (like #SouthKorea). Highly unlikely given testing capacity/resources limitation & rampant community transmission.
3) b) Means mitigation works in keeping new cases increase controlled. While curve stays flat, days/wks of high new cases finding, followed by gradual decrease. Requires keeping mitigation measures in place for extended time given limitation in testing/tracing/isolation.
4) c) Means mitigation helped slow spread in the short-term, but easing restriction accelerates transmission resulting in further escalation in new cases finding. Huge implications for hospitalizations & deaths (surpassing the already dire situation).
5) Any number of scenarios may emerge in between the extremes but underscore a critical point. Curve flattening doesn't mean the war is won. Whether scenarios (b) or (c) play out depends on measures taken to increase testing/tracing/isolation or enforce mitigation measures.
6) Unless further new cases increase is self-limited by high viral spread through the community, these scenarios suggest still difficult & painful wks/months ahead. In communicating short-term flattening success, crucial to recognize the challenges ahead.
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