Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #southkorea

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1. To get a better idea of where #Covid19 might be the biggest problem in the short term, I organized this growth rate chart from countries with highest to lowest rate increases over the past 8 days.
2. Among countries with a recent #Covid19 growth rate of 18% or higher between May 17-20 are #Ethiopia, #Brazil, #Bangladesh, #India, #Kenya, #Mexico, #Egypt, #Pakistan, #Congo, #Nigeria, #SouthAfrica, #Columbia, #Iraq, #Afghanistan, #Argentina, & #Sudan.
3. Countries Between 6-18% #Covid19 Growth Rate between May 17-20 Include #Indonesia, #Russia, #Philippines, #USA, #Iran, #Myanmar, #Uganda, #Algeria, #Ukraine, #Canada, & #Poland.
Read 11 tweets
Thread: Predicting #COVID deaths in the US from 8k to 100k.

I started predicting the US COVID death toll ~2 months ago. All of my predictions to date have proven accurate. The most painful predictions I have ever made.

Why have we failed to stop the #coronavirus in the US?

My first prediction on Apr 4 (toll @ 8k) was for the Easter Sunday (20k):

In my Apr 12 thread (toll @ 20k), I explained the fundamental systems concepts for the #coronavirus epidemic:

Read 20 tweets
THREAD: For @politico I mapped out which countries are doing best when both their health and economic #coronavirus outcomes are considered - see here, with @beatricezjin.

#Vietnam is the clear best performer; the US ranks just 24th of 30.… #COVID
#1 Vietnam: The easy ranking leader as the biggest country with no COVID-19 deaths (95m), barely 300 cases, and economy still set to grow 2.7% in 2020.
#2 is #Taiwan: They avoided the need for a full lockdown by taking early action in January, proving that containment was possible despite proximity and other links with China. Still, with 70 percent of GDP linked to exports, Taiwan's economy is on track to shrink 4 percent.
Read 31 tweets
Biggest story in #SouthKorea today is Lee Yong-Su, former "#ComfortWoman" who exposed Yoon Mi-Hyang, former head of the civic support group, of systematic embezzlement. This THREAD is on Yoon's husband. A tale of spies, jail term, reinstatement, blackmail.
In 1993 Kim Sam-Seok (KIM), Yoon's husband, & KIM's sister were indicted for violation of SK's National Security Law; in particular, receiving cash from Hantongryeon (재일한국민주통일연합), a front for #DPRK, & transferring mil. secrets to NK during several visits to Japan. 2/
KIM reportedly received 600,000 Yen (roughly USD 6000 USD) & Ms. Kim 200,000 Yen. In July 1994, a Superior Court sentenced KIM to 4 years imprisonment. Ms Kim got 3 year suspended sentence (2 year probation with no jail term). Both defendants appealed to the Supreme Court. 3/
Read 16 tweets
We Still don’t have a National Strategy/ Logistic For #TTI . TTI is Test , Trace, with Suported Isolation . If #TTI is not Standardized Nation Wide , we will have a 50 State Solution. #TTI is similar to the #SouthKorea strategy. We Working a Plan B for #USA @realDonaldTrump Image
We need a National #TTI Strategy/Logistics @MSNBC @AliVelshi @TeamCavuto @AC360 @donlemon @DavidBegnaud @CNN @NPR Must Get the @CDCgov leading this #TTI effort our plan B will have . Strategy , Concept, Tactics , Techniques and Procedures , Working with team of Selfless Leaders
The second wave could kick our collective butt if we don’t , organize , standardized, train , fund #TTIT ,TEST ,TRACE , ISOLATE,TREAT . A 50 State Solution without Federal #Logistics Funding will not be effective. The @CDCgov @HHSGov must be leading this effort with the States Image
Read 3 tweets

#US Senator @ThomTillis recently unveiled an 18-point plan to hold #China accountable for the #COVID19 #pandemic.

We discuss why companies are shifting manufacturing base and supply chains away from China and how #India stands to gain much.

Read on
A swelling chorus of voices around the globe is asking China to pay up for the damages incurred due to the deadly coronavirus outbreak. The United States-led by President #DonaldTrump is leading the troop (no surprises there!)

A top US Senator Thom Tillis has unveiled an 18-point plan to hold China accountable.

Of these, a suggestion with the most ramification is perhaps moving manufacturing back to the US and gradually eliminating supply chain dependency on China.

Read 5 tweets
Wow...we just watched a major #covid19 outbreak unfold in #SouthKorea from bars/clubs.

Wisconsin’s response?

“Hold my beer”
I’ll be honest- as much as this is so ludicrous that it’s’s also infuriating. It’s really just selfish- & guess who will be responsible for trying to save some of these lives in 2 weeks?

Frontline workers have died of #covid19. They have infected their families.
We are one of the only places in the world that, despite being largely unprepared, w/o the systems in place to perform the level of testing/surveillance, or tracing/isolating that we need, we are letting people swarm into bars- right after a big bar outbreak in Korea!
Read 3 tweets
Thread: Dump bad equations. They lead to bad decisions.

On May 10, Mr. @BorisJohnson proposed a simple equation to determine #COVID Alert Level. He then explained how the reopening policy could be shaped based on this "Threat Level".

In this thread, I will explain why this equation is not only wrong, but is also completely unnecessary — especially when we have clear alternative measures that can guide #COVID policies and decisions.

* Fast forward to tweet # 11 if you already know Dimensional Analysis.

One of the first subjects in physics is "Dimensional Analysis". It needs to be emphasized more in high school and college physics courses.

See this @wikipedia article for a technical description:…

Read 30 tweets

1/ Fascinating piece on #SouthKorea #covid19 response.

Seoul, which is nearly twice as dense as NYC, has a new resurgence of cases in clubs/bars. Watch their response closely, which includes a relatively invasive level of digital contact tracing…
2/ The government uses an emergency text message system to share data on new cases with quite an intense level of detail, including the person's travel route.

These are shared w/ people near the route areas so they can assess if they have possibly crossed paths.
3/ Example of a case entry: “08:00 left home (on foot) / mask worn”... “Bus transfer to no. 7730 in front of Sangam High School → disembarked at Susaeggyo / mask worn”), as well as a six-minute stop at a local supermarket, before ending with...“15:00 tested positive"
Read 9 tweets
Thread: Exponential to Linear & Reopening

On Apr 17, Mr. Trump predicted a MAXIMUM #COVID death toll of 60–65k in 🇺🇸.

I predicted the toll would exceed 65k by today.

That was correct (up to a 24hr reporting delay). Current tally, May 1, is 65,435.

This was my third correct prediction in a row.

My first prediction was on Apr 4 for Apr 12 (~20k deaths).

My second prediction was on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (~40k deaths).

In this pedagogical thread, I will discuss the Exponential trends in cases & deaths, transition to Linear, and the implications for reopening.

To review basic definitions for a Dynamical System, State & Auxiliary Variables, Flows, & Parameters see:

Read 41 tweets
#Southkorea #USA #NorthKorea #Seoul #KimJongUn #Airforce

It was found that the U.S. interceptor reconnaissance plane flew over the Korean Peninsula on the 30th. Kim Jong-un is a reconnaissance activity conducted every day from the time when the
North Korean leader's health ideals begin to turn. Inside and outside the military, there is an analysis that the United States is working hard on reconnaissance activities to identify unusual trends such as Kim's personal anomal. Kim Jong-un's thirsty information,
this time also launched the interceptor reconnaissance NLL. It was found that the U.S. interceptor reconnaissance plane flew over the Korean Peninsula on the 30th. Kim Jong-un is a reconnaissance activity conducted every day from the time when the
Read 21 tweets
definilty a must see Documentary on #NorthKorea & #SouthKorea

just blew my mind
The standoff between the 2 Koreas has created such an atmosphere at South Korea.

Let us take a look at Korea beyond the Veil of Propaganda by N.korean Authorities

N.Korean expose documentary episode 2

Read 12 tweets


South Korea ’s top officials said they knew the whereabouts of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
This is the clearest answer given by Seoul since Kim Jong Un disappeared from public view more than two weeks ago. Bloomberg reported that South Korea 's Minister of Unification Kim Yeon-Chul was directly asked about the issue at a parliamentary meeting on Tuesday(28th) and said,
“The South Korean government knows Kim Jong-un 's whereabouts”, but did not provide further explanation. In addition, when asked whether South Korea informed US President Trump of Kim Jong-un ’s whereabouts and current situation,
Read 9 tweets
Weekend #Covid19 Global Round-up thread.
Starting with NYS, where large number of tests (46.9K) were reported (unknown when samples were taken) yesterday with lowest positive rate (22.5%) since March 17. @David_EatonJr 1/x
With⬆️testing, we WILL see increased cases, as @NateSilver538 has aptly stated; positive rate WILL also tend to go ⬇️, irrespective of whether true prevalence is⬆️, flat or ⬇️. Deaths, ICU use, hospitalizations, OTOH, should be RELATIVELY unaffected. 2/x
Keeping the above in mind, harder to say that increased cases (both nationally and excluding NY, MA, NJ, CT) are meaningful. Remember also that we have seen a pattern of decreased cases on Sundays and Mondays. If testing stays high, that may be less apparent.
Read 10 tweets
¿Aumentar la Oferta Monetaria aumenta la Inflación? Veamos los siguientes ejemplos. HILO 🔽🔽🔽
Read 23 tweets
Thread w/updates of NYS, US, & some places around the world. TL; DR - Ohio looks bad; NYS MUCH better; US MAY (or may not..) be plateauing; Italy & Spain look better each day, but it is a long slog. And I am still convinced that US death toll from THIS wave is 100K+
Even with lower testing (16.3K), NYS had lowest positive rate in 4 weeks at 29.0%. Deaths are dropping. Case finding is much lower. Expect a rebound after the weekend, but all signs are favorable. @David_EatonJr
While the northeastern epicenter (NYS, NJ, CT, MA) are starting to come off their cliff (collectively), there is less evidence of that for the remainder of the country (collectively). Today is higher than last monday for US ex those states. Need more days to know.
Read 8 tweets
⚠️@FEMA & @CDCgov’s draft strategy to reopen says even a cautious/phased approach entails a “significant risk of resurgence” of #coronavirus & warns of a “large rebound curve” of #COVID19 if mitigation is relaxed before vaccines or herd immunity occur.…
Before easing #StayHome, we need the following:

▶️“genuinely low” #COVID19 cases
▶️broad #coronavirus TESTING: “well functioning” monitoring “promptly detecting” outbreaks
▶️aggressive contact tracing
▶️enough hospital beds to rapidly scale up
▶️ramped-up production of #PPE
Reopening too early RISKS LIVES, but @realDonaldTrump claims “the plans to reopen the country are close to being finalized.”

Yet Trump hasn’t committed to following these or other recommendations from the experts, as the WH drafts its own plans.🤬

#coronavirus #COVID19
Read 7 tweets
⚠️@Harvard study projects recurrent wintertime #COVID19 outbreaks: “Intermittent #PhysicalDistancing may be required *into 2022* unless ICU capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.”

#coronavirus #CoronavirusPandemic…
The #COVID19 projections are based on estimates of seasonality (worse in winter), ability to gain long-term immunity to this deadly #coronavirus (NOT likely based on other related viruses), and cross-immunity to related coronaviruses (could provide partial immunity!).
▶️Highly-effective distancing allows a strategy using #coronavirus TESTING, contact tracing and quarantine, as in #SouthKorea and #Singapore
▶️Less effective 1-time distancing may PROLONG the outbreak

But @realDonaldTrump *still* hasn’t provided the #COVID19 tests he promised.🤬
Read 5 tweets
The #IMF says the "Great Lockdown" recession will likely be the worst since the Great Depression. Global economy projected to shrink by 3% in 2020. By contrast, in January, the IMF had forecast a global GDP expansion of 3.3% for this year. Details in chart below. Table: @IMFNews
IMF: Partial global rebound to 5.8% in 2021 “assumes the #pandemic fades in the 2nd half of 2020, & that policy actions taken by countries are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, & system-wide financial strains.” #WEO
How does your country fare in the latest #IMF projections for 2020 & 2021?… @IMFNews #economies #GDP #finance
Read 21 tweets
1/ Given my interactions with @ASlavitt and @jeremyfaust yesterday, I decided to make a compiled list of data on asymptomatic transmission. This is not complete, but the most striking data I have seen on #COVID19 and #SARSCoV2 worldwide.
2/ A nice summary published in @TIME yesterday:

Covert coronavirus infections could be seeding new outbreaks…
3/ USA (NY) #usaCoronavirus #NewYork

Universal Screening for #SARSCoV2 in Women Admitted for Delivery @ColumbiaWomens @NB83
- 33 positive cases, 29 (87%) asymptomatic
Read 24 tweets
On Mar 24, we had ~800 #COVID deaths in the US. On Apr 4, when the count was at ~8,000, I predicted ~20,000 deaths by Easter Sunday, Apr 12.

My prediction was spot on. Current tally is 20,600.

In this PEDAGOGICAL thread, I will explain how I came up with this number. This thread is not meant for systems experts.

I became interested in, and very concerned about, the spread of #coronavirus since January 2020, when I saw the initial datasets from #Wuhan.

I am an applied mathematician, and I specialize in modeling dynamic systems, besides other things. I am not an epidemiologist, but the spread of infectious diseases are governed by the same mathematical rules that govern dynamical systems in general.

Read 35 tweets
Its difficult to explain why so many leading Western #epidemiologists and #virologists, against all advice from East Asia, still openly or indirectly suggest that "herd immunity" should be the ultimate strategic rational for Western governments responding to #Covid_19 /1
The contradiction of pandemic expertise is puzzling. The assessment of #China's top epidemiologists is crystal clear… Their colleagues in #Southkorea, #Taiwan, #Sinpapore, #Hongkong and #Vietnam certainly agree 100% to reject the notion of "herd immunity"/2
China's 82 (?) years old hero-scientist Zhong Nanshan notes: "Vaccination is the way to acquire immunity. Herd immunity won’t work – the cost and sacrifices are too huge,” ... referring to the situation when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection."/3
Read 15 tweets
1/ What does #FlattenTheCurve mean for #NewYork.
3 likely scenarios for new #COVID19 cases finding:
a) Declines sharply (high containment)
b) Gradual decline (medium containment)
c) Flares up forming a bigger wave before declining (low containment)
2) a) Means beyond flattening, quashing the curve. Requires aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation of cases to arrest #coronavirus spread (like #SouthKorea). Highly unlikely given testing capacity/resources limitation & rampant community transmission.
3) b) Means mitigation works in keeping new cases increase controlled. While curve stays flat, days/wks of high new cases finding, followed by gradual decrease. Requires keeping mitigation measures in place for extended time given limitation in testing/tracing/isolation.
Read 7 tweets
ROK: On the 15th April 2020, South Korea will be going to the polls to elect the 300 members of their National Assembly (Parliament)

To understand exactly what each party contesting this election stands for here is a guide on it's history and policies: #SouthKorea
Read 10 tweets

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