Thread by @peterjsalisbury

So what’s going on with the ceasefire in #Yemen? Well, there isn’t one - yet.

The good news: You can't break a ceasefire that doesn't exist.

The bad news: No ceasefire.

#Thread (1/10)

The UN special envoy to Yemen and Secretary General have both called for a ceasefire. And yesterday Saudi Arabia announced a unilateral halt to its military activities in Yemen for two weeks, which it called a ceasefire. But...

(2/10)

For there to be an actual ceasefire we need an agreement between the warring parties and more importantly for the fighting to stop. Neither has happened. In fact, since the SG's call for a freeze two weeks ago violence has intensified.

So what now?

(3/10)

Martin Griffiths, @OSE_Yemen, needs to get the Huthis, the Hadi government and the Saudis in a room (virtual rather than IRL) and get them to agree to a plan of action. And this, as we wrote two weeks ago, is what he has been trying to do.
bit.ly/2RqNeMz
(4/10)

Then the hard work starts. You can't just say "ceasefire" and expect it to happen, unless you're Harry Potter. Lots of technical planning, communication and political will needed. There is little trust in #Yemen so even if the parties do agree, it'll be a bumpy road.
(5/10)

The Hadi government doesn't actually command all the forces fighting the Huthis on the ground. The Coalition will need to get the STC in the south and the Joint Resistance Forces on the Red Sea coast (among others) on board too it it's going to be nationwide.
(6/10)

There's also a fair chance the parties will come to talks with preconditions. The Huthis for example see a freeze to airstrikes, reopening Sanaa Airport and increasing trade flows through Hodeida as being an essential part of any ceasefire. That's a big shopping list.

(7/10)

☝️Yesterday the Huthis published their proposal for how to end to the war that contained all of these points and more. The Yemeni government claims it is on the front foot militarily after months of losses, and may feel positioned to demand territory it lost in Jan-March.

(8/10)

Even if the UN can negotiate a halt to the fighting, its next big challenge (other than COVID-19) will be moving the parties towards political talks. Without confidence building measures and a move toward a political process, any ceasefire is unlikely to be durable.

(9/10)

Cause for optimism: We've seen fighting flare up before every previous round of talks and ceasefire attempts in the past. This isn't a new problem.
Cause for pessimism: None of those attempts held.

Let's see if a pandemic will make the difference.

(10/10)

Ope, and an unnumbered tweet: our briefing on the fighting in the north from three weeks ago, still the hottest part of the conflict.

crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…